2022 Field Of 64 Projections: April 20Analysis
PODCAST: Projections NerdCast
COLUMN: Mark Etheridge on Ole Miss/MSU + RPI for Hosts
A couple of weeks ago at the midseason mark of the season, we unveiled our first Field of 64 projections for the 2022 campaign. The field and seeds look vastly different just two weeks later.
Let’s cut to the chase.
For starters, let’s get the explanation of the projections out of the way. As usual, we consider two things when composing the projections: how we perceive teams from a resume standpoint right now, and how we feel teams will finish the season.
From a top eight seed standpoint, there are some seismic changes to report. Virginia, Texas Tech, Texas, Arizona and UCLA were all top eight seeds in our inaugural projections at the midseason mark. However, all are not only not top eights in the latest projections, they aren’t projected to be hosts. Texas Tech and Texas are sliding on the field and from an RPI perspective, Virginia is still heavily in the hosting discussion and Arizona and UCLA have both seen their RPI fortunes dramatically decrease over the past couple of weeks.
What’s that mean? For now, it doesn’t look great for the above teams and hosting. But it also gives you an idea of how quick things can change in the other direction as well.
New top eight seeds this week include Oregon State, Oklahoma State, Southern Miss, Oregon and Gonzaga. Oregon State and Oregon, along with Stanford (a top 16 seed) appear to be the cream of the crop in the Pac 12, Oklahoma State is the leader in the Big 12 with TCU as a Top 16 host, Gonzaga has compiled quite an impressive resume for a WCC team and Southern Miss is not only red-hot on the field, its resume also continues to travel on an upward trajectory.
New hosts in the 9-16 range outside of Stanford and TCU include Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech and Georgia Southern. Georgia Tech might not be ranked right now, but we’re projecting the Yellow Jackets to finish the season strong and get into Top 16 range. Virginia Tech is red-hot in the ACC and trending upward and Georgia Southern is ultra intriguing with an RPI of 12, a solid resume and the leader of the pack RPI-wise in the nation’s No. 6 RPI conference.
The ACC leads all conferences with 10 bids to the tournament, while the SEC is next in line with nine bids. The Big 12 has six of its nine teams in the field, the Pac 12 has five representatives and the Sun Belt has three teams in the field with Georgia State one of the last five teams in the field. The Atlantic Sun, Big Ten, Conference USA, SoCon and WCC each have two bids to the tournament field.
The tournament field is compiled by D1Baseball resident bracket expert Mark Etheridge, along with managing editors Kendall Rogers and Aaron Fitt.
LAST FOUR IN:
62. Kennesaw State
63. Georgia State
64. Louisiana Tech
FIRST FOUR OUT:
67. Ole Miss
68. Cal Poly
|1 Tennessee* (1)||1 Georgia Southern (16)|
|4 Coppin State*||4 Campbell*|
|2 Mercer*||2 Auburn|
|3 East Carolina*||3 Wofford|
|1 Miami* (2)||1 Virginia Tech (15)|
|4 Fairleigh Dickinson*||4 Davidson*|
|2 LSU||2 Maryland*|
|3 Connecticut*||3 West Virginia|
|1 Oregon State* (3)||1 TCU (14)|
|4 Army*||4 Pennsylvania*|
|2 Wake Forest||2 Texas A&M|
|3 San Diego||3 Louisiana Tech|
|1 Oklahoma State* (4)||1 Georgia (13)|
|4 Oral Roberts*||4 Belmont*|
|2 Arizona||2 Virginia|
|3 Liberty*||3 Kennesaw State|
|1 Arkansas (5)||1 Georgia Tech (12)|
|4 Fairfield*||4 College of Charleston*|
|2 Louisville||2 Vanderbilt|
|3 Oklahoma||3 Georgia State|
|1 Southern Miss* (6)||1 Notre Dame (11)|
|4 Alabama State*||4 Wright State*|
|2 Florida State||2 Rutgers|
|3 Alabama||3 Florida|
|1 Oregon (7)||1 Dallas Baptist* (10)|
|4 Maine*||4 SE Louisiana*|
|2 Texas Tech||2 Texas|
|3 Pittsburgh||3 Texas State*|
|1 Gonzaga* (8)||1 Stanford (9)|
|4 Central Michigan*||4 UNLV*|
|2 UCLA||2 NC State|
|3 Grand Canyon*||3 UC Santa Barbara*|