UC Irvine's Trenton Denholm (Shotgun Spratling)

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2020 D1Baseball Analytics: Top 150 Pitchers

Analysis

We hope that you’ve enjoyed checking out all of our top prospect lists with the Conference Previews so far. As a supplement to those rankings we have also generated a computer version of top pitchers with a method used by most organizations to identify potential prospects: statistical analysis.

As scouts begin to build their draft list for 2020, the analytics department for each front office will send its area scouts a list of analytic follows. In many instances, the names on the analytics list will match those already on a scout’s list. In other instances, names on the analytic list may be new to a scout, prompting the scout to get out and take a look at the office’s recommendations.

We have approached the analytics process in similar fashion—to identify possible under the radar prospects. We have broken down pitching into three categories: Zone Control, Pitch Ability, and Durability. Zone Control (ZC) is how well the pitcher controls the strike zone with strikeouts, walks, wild pitches and hit by pitch. Pitch Ability (PA) refers to a pitcher’s ability to pitch using statistics like WHIP, FIP and OppSLG. Durability (DR) is largely based on innings pitched as college starting pitchers have shown greater success in professional baseball than college relievers.

Adjustments have been made to account for park effects of the most extreme hitter and pitcher friendly parks, as well as an adjustment for a team’s strength of schedule. Our analysis is based on 2019 spring season statistics only and does not consider how a pitcher fields his position or holds baserunners. Nor does it consider a pitcher’s athleticism, arm action, delivery, projection or any other in-person scouted qualities. It is simply a list to identify pitchers who have statistically performed in areas that are proven to correlate into professional baseball. Pitchers are graded from 0-100.

RankPitcherSchoolOverallZone ControlPitchabilityDurability
1Reid DetmersLouisville94.089.992.591.8
2Mason HickmanVanderbilt92.587.492.784.7
3Kumar RockerVanderbilt91.784.791.486.3
4Emerson HancockGeorgia90.085.694.481.5
5Tanner BurnsAuburn89.385.090.477.5

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