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D1Baseball Projected Field Of 64: April 27

Analysis
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SEE ALSO: D1Baseball NerdCast

Just a few weeks ago, we released our first in-season Field of 64 projections at the midseason mark. Since that point, we’ve had one projection, and there are even more movements to report this week.

The most notable change in this week’s projections involves the top eight national seed race. Following a four-game series split with UCF, East Carolina took a hit, and as a result, Texas entered the group as the No. 8 seed. The Longhorns are coming off a road series win over Oklahoma State.

In terms of the national Top 16 seeds, there’s yet again more movement. The teams out of the Top 16 this week include Louisiana Tech, Texas Tech and Ole Miss. Louisiana Tech had an ugly weekend against Marshall, Texas Tech is trending the wrong direction thanks to injuries and Ole Miss is riding a losing streak that includes four-straight series losses. The Rebels, though, do control their own destiny the next couple of weeks with series against South Carolina and Texas A&M. Win those two series and Mike Bianco’s club is likely back in as a Top 16.

The three new teams? Charlotte, Pittsburgh and Nebraska. Charlotte has a high RPI and continues to perform extremely well in Conference USA, Pitt has made some serious waves and put together an impressive resume in the ACC and Nebraska is leading the Big Ten and has location to its advantage.

Our updated bids by conference: ACC (9), SEC (8), Pac 12 (6), Big 12 (5), Conference USA (4), Big Ten (4), American (2), WCC (2), Missouri Valley (2), Big West (2). 

FIRST FIVE OUT:

Kentucky, Maryland, Alabama, Georgia Southern, LSU

LAST FIVE IN:

Indiana, San Diego, Tulane, NC State, North Carolina

D1Baseball staff writers Kendall Rogers, Aaron Fitt and Mark Etheridge assemble the projections.

D1Baseball Projected Field of 64: April 27
FAYETTEVILLELINCOLN
1. Arkansas* (1)1. Nebraska* (16)
4. Oral Roberts*4. Wright State*
2. Baylor2. Texas Tech
3. Iowa3. UCLA
NASHVILLEPITTSBURGH
1. Vanderbilt (2)1. Pittsburgh (15)
4. Lehigh*4. La Salle*
2. Florida State2. Oregon State
3. Fairfield*3. Connecticut*
FORT WORTHCOLUMBIA
1. TCU* (3)1. South Carolina (14)
4. Bryant*4. USC Upstate*
2. Arizona State2. Old Dominion
3. Tulane3. NC State
STARKVILLECHARLOTTE
1. Mississippi State (4)1. Charlotte* (13)
4. Jackson State*4. Northeastern*
2. Southern Miss2. Florida
3. Miami3. North Carolina
SOUTH BENDLOUISVILLE
1. Notre Dame* (5)1. Louisville (12)
4. Ball State*4. Morehead State*
2. Michigan2. Ole Miss
3. Indiana State3. Indiana
EUGENESTANFORD
1. Oregon* (6)1. Stanford (11)
4. Stony Brook*4. San Diego State*
2. Gonzaga*2. UC Irvine*
3. Georgia Tech3. San Diego
KNOXVILLEGREENVILLE
1. Tennessee (7)1. East Carolina* (10)
4. Western Carolina*4. N.C. Central*
2. Virginia Tech2. Georgia
3. South Alabama*3. Liberty*
AUSTINTUCSON
1. Texas (8)1. Arizona (9)
4. New Orleans*4. Grand Canyon*
2. Louisiana Tech2. Oklahoma State
3. Dallas Baptist*3. UC Santa Barbara

53 responses to “D1Baseball Projected Field Of 64: April 27”

  1. how do you figure the seeds in each region? and how do you determine who is a 2/3 or 4 seed?

    • Every 4 seed is a very poor RPI but in the tourney b/c of the AQ thing. Several 3 seeds are similar AQs as well but with somewhat better RPIs than the 4 seeds.

      What’s left is the committee’s balancing act sorting thru the unseated at-large bid holders, picking and choosing as to which goes to the 2 seed spots and which take the remaining 3 seed spots.

      RPI is not the sole tool used here but we will see it play out in the seeding.

  2. The Fayetteville and Lincoln Regional matchup has a lot of quality clubs out of the 8. Interesting path to Omaha for what would be the current #1 team in the nation, Arkansas having to go through to reach the CWS.

    • Dave Van Horn is incapable of bringing home the hardware. Nebraska and now Arkansas. They need a seasoned winner like Pat Casey at Arkansas if they ever want a natty. All Arkansas ever does is choke.

      • As a rebel fan, let me say that Arkansas baseball can’t even spell the word choke, much less know its definition.

      • umm, Arkanas was literally IN the national championship game 3 years ago. And Van Horn has had the Hogs in the CWS a number of times. This will likely just be another one.

  3. Just curious how this list is projected and how many teams if any have guarantees from last year or this years performance
    Is see * ??
    Thx

    • They do a nerd cast that you can listen. Last week they did an entire write up by conference

  4. Putting Oregon State in the Pittsburgh regional and then a super against Vanderbilt? Like bringing the birds to the cat! Will be run rules.

    • I seriously hope you are not calling OSU the Cat. Can OSU even score 10 runs in a series? Let alone in less than 9 innings for a run rule game.

  5. I have an odd feeling that some team out of the west is going to emerge this June and make a deep run, no clear-cut heavyweights out there, perfect scenario for a Fresno St type Cinderella

  6. South Bend, Greenville, Pittsburgh, Fort Worth and Austin Regionals… quality and alignment is bad. You can do better. 2 from the MVC? Really?

  7. How is Miami a 3 and Arizona St a 2?

    Miami: 23-13, 14-12, RPI: 17, 21-13 vs Q1/Q2. Best win: UF, worst loss: FSU

    Arizona St: 22-14, 10-8, RPI: 39, 7-8 vs Q1/Q2. Best win: Wash St, worst loss: Stanford

    I don’t get it. Kendall, Aaron, what exactly has you seeding ASU higher than Miami? Because it doesn’t seem to be anything that happened on the field

    • As a Texas Tech fan I like that bracket. What I will not like is having to go to Fayetville for the Super. That is if we win, which with our injuries is going to be tough.

  8. Really, Arizona State a 2 seed, UCLA a 3 seed?
    Clearly, you need some work on the West coast.
    Who’s going to be traveling in this current climate?
    The 64 will be kept in their regions, most likely.

    • What metrics suggest they should be higher seeds? Also, teams have been traveling outside of their “region” since the beginning of the season. Shouldn’t be a concern come June

  9. How in the world is Ole miss not a number 1 seed. You do know if not for major injuries to pitching staff and offensive players they would be a top 2 team in the league.No team can go through the major injuries they have had and still be ranked in the top 15 in RPI’S and rankings

    • Also, Ole Miss has the 6th most quad 1 wins in the county. more than national 8 seed MSU and Texas& TCU. If they are a 2 seed why do u have them ranked 15th? Kendall, y’all miss figured on this one. COME ON you are better than that.

      • How did Ole Miss do against Mississippi State? Better yet, how do they do each of the past 4 weekends? I would say be better, but I’m not sure you can 😂

        • read my previous post and you will know why msu won 2 of 3 at home. a healthy ole miss team would destroy msu just as they did Saturday 9-0.

      • You said they have more Q1 wins than TCU, but I see at TCU 12-6 and Ole Miss 10-9. It should be noted they have more Q1 losses than all 3 teams you compared them to. Take the blinders off they’ve literally lost 4 series in a row (5 total counting UCF RPI 90 ), be thankful they are still ranked. OSU lost 2 series in a row to current top 5 teams and that got them booted out.

        • you are right about TCU and quad 1 wins. quad 1 losses are not bad losses. If you have more wins and more losses that means you have played the tougher schedule. Don’t let the weak teams that you play bring your SOS down as much as ole miss does by playing so many SWAC schools that have RPI’s around 300. That’s why SOS isn’t as important as total quad 1 games.

      • You have a lower strength of schedule than State, you lost the series to State and LSU…And, you waste good beer…for what?

    • They said in their NerdCast that Ole Miss is still in the hunt for a host…but they’ve lost 4 straight series. That’s your answer. Injuries or not, until they show they can win consistently, they won’t host.

      • Take Tanner Allen out of your lineup halfway through the 30 game s.e.c. schedule. Take 2 of your top 3 starters out of your weekend rotation. 1 each for 3 S.E.C. Weekends and then take your top 2 relievers out of your line for since the first game. Then see where your below-average hitting bulldogs would be. PROBABLY LAST IN THE LEAGUE. YET OLE MISS STILL IS IN THE RUNNING FOR A NATIONAL SEED. YOU PEOPLE ARE SO CLUELEES.

    • The PAC will likely only get 1 national seed. Arizona will get it if they win the conference, but for now Oregon is ahead in the metrics.

    • UConn is in because they’re picked to win the conference. They played a very challenging non-conference schedule as well and boast an rpi of 36 in a conference where rpi is applicable this year.

  10. If Fairfield doesn’t win the MAAC tournament, do they still get an at large bid with a 32-2 or 33-1 record? If so, in what regional would you see the AQ ending up playing?

  11. think you boys have caught “ACC Fever”. Good news is, it won’t be fatal like dengue fever. 9 for ACC but 8 for SEC? Have you looked at how this has played out historically? Why would UNC get a bid, every time I look up they are losing to an E. Carolina, then teams way below ECU. They also seem to drop 2 of 3 regularly on the weekends. Are they just automatically “in”? Must be that alternative curriculum they skated by on, because the NCAA could not figure out what was happening. Reminds me of the infamous basketball selection committee’s tomfoolery over the years. You want details, on that, I’ll provide them. It also brings to mind the ACC Baseball/Big 10 Football conundrum, which is, they look so good beating each other, but when they face good teams NOT from their conference, at the end of the season, they seriously look outmatched, even to the point of “stink”. Strongly doubt there has been a year in the past 20 when the ACC EARNED (does not mean they were not awarded more) more spots than the SEC. Those 8 must be super-powerful, because the track record once the tourney begins is weighted very heavily toward the SEC, most especially once in Omaha.

  12. like I said after last week’s field of 64 projections. How in the world was Ole Miss not a top 16 seed. Well, I guess it looked like I was right after sweeping S.C. Get a clue people

  13. How is Bama not in? They have one of the toughest schedules in the country, and are still right in the thick of the Sec West. I think Bama is solidly in barring a late season collapse

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