Weekly Chat: Week 10

Yeah, you’re right — last year the ACC sent 10 teams to regionals and had an 11th get snubbed with a top-20 RPI. This year, I see a maximum of seven teams that would have any realistic shot if the season ended today, and two of them (NC State and FSU) would be on the bubble. Ultimately I think all of those top seven will get in, and that’s it — unless Miami can somehow catch fire and make a miracle run to keep its streak alive. I won’t rule that out — it is Miami, after all. But right now I wouldn’t bet on it.

To piggyback on the last question — I don’t think Miami has too many losses to get in. It’s 16-19 overall, and we’ve seen teams get at-large bids with around 30 wins if their RPI is good enough. Obviously Miami needs to boost its RPI a good bit (It’s currently 75th), but series against Florida State and at UVa will give it chances to do that. At BC and home against Virginia Tech could be winnable series too. Miami is 9-9 in the ACC, and I see a very realistic path to 15-15, which would usually put an ACC team into a regional, but not always. And in Miami’s case, it needs to do better than that because it is still below .500 overall and it doesn’t have a robust RPI. So there’s work to do — but it’s definitely not over.

I do. And it sounds like Martin is getting close to coming back — I am very hopefully that I’ll get to see him take on TCU in a couple of weeks in Lubbock. That’s a really good rotation.

Jack — I actually think I lean Texas Tech, IF it gets Davis Martin back and healthy. Obviously, him not coming back would be a game-changer when you compare those guys with TCU.

Yeah, he’s a legitimate prospect having a very nice year — I think he’ll be drafted in the first three rounds and sign after this spring.

It’s really a two-man race between Mississippi State’s Brent Rooker and Louisville’s Brendan McKay. Rooker has just crazy, crazy offensive numbers — but McKay also has amazing offensive numbers (if not quite as amazing as Rooker’s), and he’s also got a 1.19 ERA and a 76-12 strikeout-walk mark as a pitcher — so I still have to lean McKay here.

GoodAg — I think A&M needs to get anywhere from 25 to better in the RPI, and the Aggies could do that with a really strong finish. Hosting is definitely still in the picture.

Big12Fan — I feel pretty good about TCU, Texas Tech, West Virginia, Oklahoma and Baylor … and I think Texas is still in good shape right now, too, but the Longhorns have a little less margin for error with an RPI of 40. The Longhorns do need to finish the season strong to get in, IMO.

It’s really a bizarre year in the SEC. If the season ended today, I’d probably have Kentucky as a national seed, and that might be it. And looking at UK’s remaining schedule, there are some very favorable home matchups (vs. Georgia, vs. Tennessee) and some challenging road matchups (At SC, at Florida). The Wildcats might very well be able to sustain this and land a national seed. Feels like the SEC will find a way to get two national seeds eventually, but it’s anybody’s guess who will get the second one. Ultimately I’m starting to feel like Florida is the most talented team overall and that it’s starting to find its stride at the plate — that’s a team that I think will make a real second-half run. Auburn and Mississippi State have been great stories, but those are teams I think might fade back into the pack a bit as the second unwinds. I’d have more faith in Arkansas and LSU in the West.

You know, I think I’m comfortable saying that he is. He doesn’t have enough high-level experience yet to put him in that elite group (Schloss/Corbin/O’Sullivan/O’Connor/McDonnell/Savage/Mainieri/Van Horn/Casey/Fox, plus the remaining old guard guys like Martin, Morris and Graham)…. but I think he’s on the fast track to that group, and if I had to bet on one guy to be the next coach to join that inner circle, I think it would be Monte Lee.

Absolutely not. The Cajuns are sitting at 69 and could certainly make the field with a strong finish. The RPI isn’t great right now, but plenty of opportunities the rest of the way to get that number up a bit. The Sun Belt could amazingly only end up a one-bid league despite entering the season as a likely three-bid league. The RPI just isn’t very kind to that league right now.

The problem they’re going to have is with the RPI — five of their last six series are against teams outside the top 100. That No. 25 nonconference SOS is a nice selling point, but the weak conference SOS is going to hurt the Titans ultimately, and probably keep them out of a national seed. Maybe if they just catch fire and make one of those runs like the Beavers have been on, with some long winning streak, maybe they can overcome the drag of the conference, but it won’t be easy.

Florida State. No way am I quitting on those guys. Out of all those teams, FSU’s struggles are the most inexplicable to me. Any second now, that light is going to come on and they’re going to go on a tear — I believe that.

Jake — I feel like Minnesota, sitting at 47 right now in the RPI — would get in the field if the season ended today, especially given its solid conference record. As long as the Gophers continue to roll in the Big Ten and keep an RPI in this range, they’ll make the field IMO.

I kinda dig that Altuve comp — he’s definitely got that kind of pretty special barrel awareness and baseball instincts. And I do think he probably profiles best at 2B in pro ball… but I look forward to bearing down on him and Cadyn for a few games when I’m up there for the Civil War series in a few weeks.

Heel — I would say Oregon State and North Carolina are locks to be national seeds right now barring major collapses at the end of the season. I think you can throw Clemson and one of TCU or Texas Tech into that mix as well.

I suppose you’d have to say that they are, after sweeping College of Charleston this weekend. Sitting at 9-3, all alone in first place in the standings. I really like that Northeastern bullpen, feel like that gives them an edge in tight games. Call me stubborn, but I can’t shake the feeling that UNC Wilmington will eventually go on a run and win that conference tournament, but right now the Seahawks haven’t done anything to merit that kind of faith, and the Huskies are playing good baseball.

Eric — I’ve been told that Stanford has pretty much cleared him to pitch again, but he has yet to pitch. I think you can draw your own conclusions on that one …. Hopefully he will come back and help the Cardinal down the stretch.

Definitely a setback — dropped 25 spots to No. 51 in the RPI, which is still on the bubble but probably not the right side of it. Of course, that should be a reminder that the RPI still has a lot of volatility from week to week at this point in the year, so there’s a long way to go. That conference is just going to be a free for all — I have no idea what’s going to happen down the stretch in the American. But this weekend definitely did not destroy UConn’s hopes — still right in the thick of it.

He’s got a chance to be a really special head coach. He’s always had the “it” factor that you’re looking for when it comes to personality, work ethic and player evaluation skills. Now we are seeing that all that stuff translates into success as a head coach even when you don’t have a bunch of experience.

John — I think series wins over Oklahoma State and West Virginia, and taking care of business in non-conference games would more than likely get the Longhorns in, albeit you never know how some other teams nationwide might do down the stretch. If that’s the finish, though, I see Pierce’s team in the postseason. They could be really dangerous with that pitching …

Yeah, the schedule does open up for Vandy right now, and I do expect them to go on a run. Do they have enough to get hot enough to host? I have my doubts, but feels like a team that winds up as a frisky No. 2 seed.

Manhattan,
I think South Florida, UCF and Houston are your teams right now, with UCONN probably moving back on the bubble after getting swept by Tulane over the weekend. The Huskies are down to 51 in the RPI with just one win over Top 50 teams. That needs to improve down the stretch. The good news? UCONN still has a road series against UH left on the docket.

Dawg — You know, yes, the Huskies lost the series to Oregon State over the weekend, but I thought it was an encouraging sign that UW almost won the series. If not for a little command issues late in the game yesterday, it would’ve had a chance in the 8th or 9th to win the series. The pitching was solid against the Beavers over the weekend. The foundation is there to make noise just like Lindsay Meggs’ club did last season. Right now, the Huskies are at 46 in the RPI with a 3-3 record vs. RPI Top 25 and 4-5 mark vs. RPI Top 50. Those marks need to get better, and that RPI probably needs to get into the 20s to have a chance.

(1) I think last year was the aberration for Arkansas, and this year is just a return to normalcy — I thought it was pretty inevitable. That program has been a model of consistency under Dave Van Horn, and you knew they weren’t going to stay down for long. (2) I honestly have no idea… Kinda like Florida’s combination of ability, momentum and schedule — but they’ve got to overcome a three-game hole. I might place my money on Kentucky right now. Really do like Arkansas too, but it’s not a real easy schedule remaining. Manageable, but not as favorable as some others.

I don’t know if North Carolina is built to beat the Beavers, but I would love to see those two teams face off for the national title for the third time since 2006. I think that would be a great series, and the history between those programs would make it that much more intriguing.

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Brando — Yep — Cannizaro and his staff are doing a wonderful job. It’s amazing what happens when you have a team that believes in themselves. State could’ve taken a step in the wrong direction after the Arkansas series, but Andy and his staff used that as a teaching moment and they’ve been a much different team ever since. It also helps that MSU has gotten ridiculous production from Brent Rooker.

Well, it’s worth pointing out that Randy LaBaut and Rio Gomez both turned in solid enough performances this weekend — got into at least the sixth inning and gave their team a chance to win. Now they need to show they can do that consistently. Arizona doesn’t need them to dominate — but get through five or six innings on a consistent basis, that is huge.

I think I’m with Kendall — my money is on Texas Tech, assuming Davis Martin is himself when he returns. I lean toward the Raiders over TCU simply because Tech gets that series at home. Ultimately I think that’s the difference.

Sports — Not liking DBU’s chances right now barring a conference tournament title. The Patriots just don’t have the quality wins so far this season (with few opportunities let), and have an RPI of 64 with a 7-11 mark vs. RPI Top 100. There’s a long way to go, but things aren’t trending the right direction as of now.

Yeah, right now all three are on track to be national seeds, but as you point out, Clemson could certainly drop out of that top eight if it loses both of those series (the other two do not play each other in the regular season). You’d probably have to favor UNC over Clemson at home, but maybe Clemson gets the edge at home against Louisville. Really could envision all three of them getting national seeds.

Eagle — USM can absolutely host, but with an RPI around 30, it needs to improve the RPI and overall metrics. If USM wins those series against ODU and FAU, finishes strong, and does well in the conference tournament, it will have a very very good pitch to be a host. We’ll see, though.

I suspect it will, yes. Personally, my money is still on Maryland to win the Big Ten, although I believe Kendall leans Michigan. But even if the Wolverines finish second, they’d have a shot to host with a top-20 RPI — committee likes to throw Northern teams a bone when their RPIs are in that range, especially when they have the facilities to do it.

Miami — The Hurricanes are sitting at 75 in the RPI with across the board pretty bad metrics. The ‘Canes will need an extremely strong finish just to be considered for a postseason spot at this point.

ZEB — If the season ended today, there’s zero doubt in my mind Mercer would make the postseason with an RPI of 29 and an overall record of 32-6. If the trend stays the same, the Bears could go 0-2 in the league tourney and probably still be in great shape to make it. They’ve been THAT good.

Obviously we thought Tulane was capable of playing like this — I think we had that team in our Next Ten just outside the preseason Top 25, so I’m not shocked that they’re doing this. But boy, it looked bleak after the way they started — pretty impressed that they’ve rallied back to .500 overall. It feels similar to Utah’s run to the Pac-12 title last year after a miserable nonconference start — but even Utah couldn’t make it all the way back to .500 overall. As for the at-large run… I mean, the RPI is still volatile at this stage, and I could see Tulane making some large gains quickly if they can keep this up. I’m not quite ready to say “buying” on the at-large thing, but I think it’s entirely within the realm of possibility, which we wouldn’t have thought a few weeks ago.

You summed up my thoughts about the Terps pretty well, actually — I’ve got nothing to add! Yes, they are still my pick to win the Big Ten. I’m still trying to decide between a trip up to College Park this weekend for the Michigan State series, or a trip down to Clemson to see the Deacs and the Tigers. Decisions, decisions…

You know, I think I’ll go 60 percent. The RPI is currently in decent shape, and the schedule really opens up going forward — I see a clear path to 16 ACC wins, which is almost always enough to get an at-large.

I think this is a good opportunity to get him back on Fridays, since he pitched Friday this week — all you have to do is give Raby a couple extra days rest by flipping him to Saturday. And yeah, I think it’s time to do that.

Always take the 3U Aggies. They’ve got my son. (Okay, not really, he’s too busy picking grass instead of making throws.) 🙂

Erik — Would be tough right now with an RPI of 50 and just a 5-4 mark vs. RPI Top 50 and 8-10 mark vs. RPI Top 100. The Huskers are very much on the serious bubble right now and the final few weeks will tell their tale.

Kevin — I think I would take Braden Shewmake at A&M, our midseason Freshman of the Year. He’s just such a mature and confident hitter and he just finds holes. He’s the perfect table setter for a program looking for some direction.

Eags — Really like the top of the lineup. Braley, Burdeaux and Wallner really hit the ball hard. I was impressed with Wallner. Such a physical presence and everything he hit was with pop.

Bill — I agree. The Frogs have four very very solid starters and Traver is just icing on the cake. I’d still be shocked if the Frogs weren’t in Omaha in June.

I still think Liberty is the team of the future for that league. Clearly have the best facilities and financial structure of any program in that league, and I think it’ll start to show.

Greg — I think it’s a pretty safe bet that Canning would be a first-rounder at this point. He’s getting a lot of buzz out there, and for good reason.

Sam — RPI will continue to hamper Michigan. I don’t see national seed contention at this point, but the Wolverines can certainly be a host. The thing that hurts UM right now is the non-conference SOS hasn’t turned out to be great. It’s sitting at 143 right now.

GoBlue — The bullpen is solid and I really liked Oliver Jaskie and Ryan Nutof on the front-end. Those guys weren’t “great” at times, but they were head-strong guys with pretty good stuff. I also think the offensive lineup is balanced. There are guys throughout that lineup who can make things happen at the plate.