Top 25 Chat: April 30

Typically, 12 or 13 SEC wins and an RPI in the 40s isn’t good enough for an SEC team to get an at-large. Now, Mississippi State has a lot of high-end wins (9-7 vs. the top 25), which makes their case rather unique, so maybe they could get in with that kind of resume. But I’ll feel better about their chances if they can get to 14 SEC wins (with series left at Alabama, at Kentucky, vs. Florida, I feel like they really need to sweep that Bama series to have a great shot).

We’ll break it down in tomorrow’s field of 64 projection and Nerdcast… but yeah, Texas Tech is still safe for a top 8 seed, with that No. 3 RPI, good SOS and lots of top 50 wins. They just need to make sure they don’t fall too far back in the conference standings, but it’s hard to envision a team with an RPI that high not getting a national seed.

Sure it’s deserving. They scheduled well, they tried to put together a challenging slate, with series against name-brand opponents like Fullerton and Missouri State (an Omaha team and a super regional team last year), plus games against Ohio State and Nebraska and New Mexico. It’s not OSU’s fault that Nebraska and UNM have had down years, that Fullerton’s only a couple games over .500, and that the bottom of the Pac-12 stinks this year, dragging down their SOS ranking. But Oregon State is a really good team, they proved that last year when they went 56-6 and reached the final four, and the core of that team is the same. Yes, they’re really good, regardless of SOS.

TV,
I think Texas Tech is still looking pretty good for a national seed, but the next few week aren’t easy with Texas and Oklahoma State on the schedule. Should the Red Raiders lose both of those series, I have little doubt they’d move out as a top eight. Win the Texas series and lose the OSU series, and things would be interesting going into the Big 12 tournament. Tech still has a really solid resume and it certainly passes the eyeball test. But Davis Martin needs to be more consistent and 14 walks out of the pitching staff yesterday is obviously something to keep an eye on entering the Texas series. I was very very encouraged by Caleb Kilian’s start over the weekend. He was terrific.

I have a feeling we will end up putting the Gamecocks in our field, but let’s see how the metrics shake out. Clearly, SC has gone up in the RPI and made a loud statement over the past few weeks, while a team such as LSU, for instance, is trending the wrong direction. Clemson is in very good shape for a host site right now, IMO. In the mix for a top eight now.

Esquer is definitely on the short list, no question about it. He’s done an amazing job with that team. Other guys on the short list for me: Josh Holliday (he might be my front-runner at the moment, given when he’s done with a very young Oklahoma State team); John Savage (incredible how well he’s steered UCLA through its sea of injuries); Mike Fox, Elliott Avent and Chris Pollard, depending on how the ACC race shakes out (they’ve all done great jobs for various reasons); maybe somebody like a Jim Penders or a John Anderson.

Rice would be incredibly smart to take a hard look at Matt Deggs, but I still think Kirk Saarloos is the top choice at Rice. With that said, Joe Karlgaard obviously hasn’t made his mind up in April, so stay tuned. Very fluid situation. I’d also keep an eye on DBU’s Dan Heefner for that gig, while they’ll also give Lance Berkman a shot, too. Contrary to popular belief, Lance doesn’t have some huge leg up on those guys. Far from it, actually.

I think St. Peter’s is more likely to snap its 71-game losing streak.

I can’t believe Fitt would treat my Peacocks like that.

Brendon,

Florida
Stanford
Arkansas
Oregon State

I feel like OSU and Arkansas both have some really nice components at the plate, but obviously have issues at times on the mound, it seems. But I still think both of them will have big success in the postseason.

It’s a valid question. And there are a bunch of teams in our top 10 that have mediocre starting pitching, frankly (UNC and NC State and Clemson all fit that description, I’d say). Strange how the paradigm seems to be shifting in college baseball — the traditional model of three workhorse weekend starters seems to be getting less common, and more teams are piecing it together with their bullpens. I’m sure the influence of analytics has a lot to do with this — big league teams have found that starters drop off in a huge way their third time through a lineup, and I’m sure the same is probably true in college baseball.

Tom,
John Cohen has a prior relationship with Matt Bragga, and I know he has a ton of respect for the job he’s done at TTU. But MSU has too many huge names interested in the position to go after Bragga at this point. But I agree that he should get a shot at a better overall job. Stay tuned.

NB — Probably to. I spoke briefly with Coach Bragga last week, and he seemed to joke about the ability for TTU to actually be able to host at its home ballpark. I do think the Minor League park in Johnson City could be used, but I’m not sure I see the RPI staying high enough to host.

I’m not so sure Oregon State will be more dangerous in the postseason than Stanford and UCLA; I think they’re all Omaha-caliber teams, and Stanford strikes me as the most complete of the bunch. Given remaining schedules, I would bet on Stanford as the favorite to win the conference title.

Missouri, Mississippi State, LSU. I see LSU losing the Arkansas and Auburn series, and needing to do some serious work in Hoover. Of course, the Tigers have been pretty good in Hoover.

Is this a serious question or a troll? I mean, they’re 33-6, and No. 2 in the RPI, with a No. 23 SOS. They won 3-of-4 on the road at Texas, and 3-of-4 vs. Big Ten leader Michigan, and swept Big West leader Fullerton, and they’re tied for first in the Pac. So… yeah.

Bob,
I think we all at D1B still feel pretty good about the teams you mentioned being in the postseason, while I’d also throw UCF into that mix, though not a total slam dunk at this point. As for WSU, I don’t care what its RPI is, I don’t think the Shockers are getting in if they finish 3-4 games under .500 in the AAC. I’m fascinated to see how they finish the regular season. They certainly look the part in person.

After the way Leftwich pitched on Sunday, I think it makes sense to roll with him in that spot for the time being, and you can always adjust later on. Maybe you build back Dyson’s confidence in the bullpen and see where you’re at come June. Maybe he sticks in the bullpen and then you could have a pretty special one-two punch with Byrne and Dyson, really shorten games.

The issue is the RPI — Southern Miss is No. 33, and considering the bad RPI teams in their conference, I don’t think the math is going to work out for them to climb into the top 20, which is where a Southeast team really needs to be to have any real shot to host these days. Heck, the RPI Needs Report at Boyd’s World says USM needs to win 11 or 12 of its final 13 games just to finish the regular season in the top 32. RPI math is working strongly against USM’s hosting chances.

I would think that Martin will get to leave when he wants to leave as long as the Seminoles continue to win at a high level. Wayne Graham is being ushered out of Rice because they are trending the right direction. That isn’t the case at FSU. I’ll be intrigued to see what 11 decides after the season.

Duke would not host as of today — but finish strong in the regular season and do well in the ACC tournament? It’s absolutely possible. The RPI is within range.

I think you can start by looking at performance in nonconference play — the SEC has a .768 winning percentage in nonconference, compared with .660 for the ACC, .627 for the Big 12, .611 for the Pac-12, .642 for the American, .578 for the Big Ten. That’s a pretty significant gap between the SEC and everybody else, and it’s not like they haven’t challenged themselves, as much as West Coast homers want to spin it that way — Ole Miss, Arkansas and Vanderbilt all made trips to the west coast. Kentucky and Arkansas both played Texas Tech for a total of five games. Kentucky, Vandy and Mississippi State all went to that big Shriners College Classic. Etc etc — there are lots of examples of SEC teams testing themselves in nonconference, and they fared better than anybody else. Also, yes, they have far and away the most talent on their rosters than any other league this year, especially on the mound. The pitching talent blows everybody else away.

It is looking like that — a gloomy picture for the West. Washington has a good enough conference mark (11-7), but they’re just one game over .500 overall and 88 in the RPI — they need to win more games and get that RPI up into the 50s. So they have a chance, but they need to earn it — they can’t expect it to be given to them, just because they’re fourth in the Pac. Arizona could get itself back on the right track with a series win against UCLA this weekend too — that’s a huge series. I’m not writing off the Wildcats yet — but boy, losing a series to a 10-28 Utah team this past weekend was pretty brutal. Regional-caliber teams take care of business when they’re facing 10-28 opponents. So if the Pac only gets 3 teams in, it will have nobody to blame but itself — there’s no vast anti-West conspiracy. They don’t have enough teams that are taking care of business, it’s that simple.

Cowtown,
TCU would have to win the rest of its games just to finish in the Top 45 in the RPI. Basically, TCU needs to win its remaining series, sweep Lamar, and do some damage in OKC to get an at-large bid. Still a long shot at this point, though, as the Tech series didn’t do a ton for its RPI. BTW — look for Jake Eissler to move into the weekend rotation this coming weekend.

Tyler,
The Gamecocks are starting to play a very good and consistent brand of baseball. The remaining schedule certainly is not easy, but this team is trending the right direction at the right time and would be on the positive side of the bubble, ahead of Mississippi State and LSU. It’s interesting how quickly things can change in the SEC and the postseason picture in general.

I’d probably lean toward “just relax,” but at this point in the season it’s a fair question. They’ve got some great arms, but maybe not as consistent with the strike-throwing as you’d like to see. Still, they’ve got so much depth that they should be able to just run in somebody else if one guy struggles to find the zone. I’m not worried about it.

I’ll be there, and can’t wait for that one. Hard to bet against the Beavers at home, but I do think Stanford has a clear edge in the rotation, so I think it could definitely go either way. I’ll take Madrigal as the series MVP, he’s a big-time player who raises his game on the big stage.

Paul,
Minnesota is obviously in very good shape to get into the NCAA tournament right now with an RPI of 28 and a strong Big Ten record. The Gophers are now trying to get into the hosting mix. Right now, they’re probably just outside of the range, but a series win over the Hoosiers would make things mighty interesting to say the least. Keep an eye on these guys down the stretch.

Yeah, at this point I feel pretty confident that South Carolina will finish strong enough to get into a regional. They’re playing so much better right now, more like the team we expected they’d be in the preseason, when we projected them as a regional 2-seed. They’ve got enough talent and experience in the lineup to be dangerous in the postseason, though it still doesn’t strike me as an Omaha team. But then, it’s all about getting hot at the right time, playing your best in the postseason. No reason South Carolina couldn’t make a deep run if it is hot in June.

Rob,
Iowa continues to trend the right direction after that series win, but the RPI is still a little iffy at 45. The Hawkeyes would certainly be in as of today, but I don’t think they can afford to let their guard down, down the stretch. That series against Oklahoma State this weekend at home is massive. Win that series and it would be really hard to deny Iowa, IMO.

Thanks for the kind words. It feels like the Big 12 is on course to get two hosts — Texas Tech and probably Oklahoma State, especially if the Cowboys can win the regular-season title. Texas and Oklahoma still have a shot, but they both took steps backward this past weekend, and I don’t love their chances.

I do think scouts in the West view him as a potential first-rounder. I think he definitely goes inside the top 50 picks, and it wouldn’t surprise me if he goes in the back half of the first somewhere. One of the best bats in this draft, exciting upside there.

John — I still think Texas would make the tournament at that point because the RPI would be pretty good. Being two games above .500 in conference would be the big key, but it might adjust their seeding in a regional.

Steve Rodriguez is doing another great coaching job — this team is definitely figuring it out in the second half. Some of it is just young guys coming into their own — freshmen Nick Loftin and Davion Downey had big weekends for the Bears, and Andy Thomas has emerged as a nice middle-of-the-order piece as a sophomore. I know Kansas State doesn’t much for arms, but Baylor just pounded those guys, and they scored enough against TCU too — and the Frogs do have arms. That offense just looks transformed.

Sure. I really don’t think one bad weekend has totally sunk NC State’s national seed chances. They’re still very much in the hunt; they’ve had a great season.

OmaHogs,
Missouri State is still very much in the mix for an at-large spot, though it has very little wiggle room for major setbacks. The Bears are 51 in the RPI and lead the MVC right now, so the latter is a huge plus. But I can’t get over the 2-7 mark vs. RPI Top 50. That series at DBU to end the regular season is a must-win to get into the postseason without an automatic berth.

Pirate — I still think ECU is in fine shape right now to host a regional. ECU has some very good front-line wins, including a series win over North Carolina, along with a good overall resume. But there’s no doubt that series sweep to UH hurt their resume. They’re likely out of a top eight for now and hosting isn’t as much of a slam dunk as it was a few days ago.

Well, we didn’t have room to bring anybody into the rankings this week, but you’ll never see us bring in a team that just lost its weekend series, even if it was on the road against the No. 1 team in the country. But ultimately, Auburn’s body of work is pretty nice, as you pointed out, and if they win that Vandy series I like their chances to get back in the Top 25. We still think the key for Auburn’s hosting chances is to finish with a winning record in conference play, so that means a 6-3 finish against that tough remaining schedule. I could see them pulling it off, but I’m probably not betting on it.

Right now, teams in the mix for a final few host spots include Kentucky, Georgia, East Carolina, Texas A&M and Indiana. Texas took a big step back with that series loss to WVU.

The RPI is really what’s propping up Northeastern — they’re just 3-8 against the top 50. So I think they’re probably safe as long as they’re still in the 30s. If they get down into the 40s, I’d probably start to worry.

Trey — Southern Miss would need to be almost flawless the rest of the way to host. RPI is 33 and there just aren’t many opportunities for good RPI games in the C-USA. That Louisiana Tech series could help, though. I will say this: If USM wins the regular season and tourney titles, and finishes in the Top 25-30 in the RPI, that would make things mighty interesting going into Selection Monday. But right now, USM looks like a classic and strong No. 2 seed.

Suddenly you can envision UNC getting up there into the top three somewhere. They’re winning the ACC, the RPI and SOS are both there… it’s coming together. Kind of amazing that they could very well wind up with a body of work and a seeding that is similar to last year’s No. 2 national seed. Would not have guessed that after the first month of the season.

Cajuns,
Wow, that’s a great point. Louisiana Tech has to win that Southern Miss series to have a chance to get in as an at-large team, Tulane is obviously a no-go and Louisiana still has serious work to do with an RPI in the 60s as a Sun Belt team. There’s also LSU, which is likely on the wrong side of the bubble right now, too. So, yeah, as of right now, the state of Louisiana would be left out.

Eric,
I think Houston would still be in the tournament even without the auto bid as of today. Yes, I’d like to see the #Coogs improve that 50 RPI, but 11 wins vs. RPI Top 50 is loud and they obviously lead the American at the moment by a couple of games. UH controls its own destiny, IMO.

Ryan,
UCLA would need to get in the Top 16 to be a top seed. At the moment, the Needs Report says the Bruins can finish in the Top 16 with 12 wins in their last 15 games, while they actually could finish in the top eight with 14 wins in their last 15. So, yeah, it’s going to be tough to get into the Top 16, but the path is absolutely there.