Top 25 Chat: May 14

Johnny — The problem TCU has right now is that the RPI just isn’t moving. It’s still in the low 60s. Let’s say they win the Texas series and get into the mid-50s or so. Well, the record vs. RPI Top 50 is still pretty blah. I think TCU would need to take the Texas series and probably get to Sunday of the Big 12 tournament to get in, but we’ll see how the bubble changes.

Ken — Ohio State is in great shape to get into the field, and I think Minnesota is still a host this week. The Gophers are looking good as long they don’t stumble this weekend and play bad in the Big Ten tournament. The overall resume is very solid, the RPI is good enough, and they made a point to play good teams out of conference. They have some strong attributes.

Matt — You are right, Vandy has some nice series wins, and they’d be in right now. But the Dores can’t rest this weekend against UK. Lose that series and enter the SEC tourney at 15-15, and they could fall out with a one and done, and if there are some stolen bids out there. With that said, I’d have Vandy ahead of LSU and Miss. State on my bubble board right now.

Jason — I’m somewhat concerned. Abel has shown flashes of brilliance and flashes of being a freshman. The Beavs just need him to be the first in the postseason. He’s got very good stuff and he has an incredibly bright future. But for now, it’s a mixed bag. That’ll always give you some anxiety as a coach.

Rob — I think the SEC would get four national seeds in that scenario. Right now, the league most certainly deserves it as those four teams have much better resumes, than say NC State or FSU, right now.

Sammy — Would probably need a couple of wins in Hoover to feel OK about getting in, and even then, stolen bids might keep that from happening. Not liking Mizzou’s chances at this point, but as always, never say never.

Pirate — I think they host even if they lose the UCONN series, but we’l see how things shake out. If they take the UCONN series and play well in the AAC tournament, I think ECU will have an extremely strong case to be a top eight seed in the tourney. Love the road record, other metrics and that non-conf series win over UNC.

Zach — If the Tar Heels take care of business against VT? I think the Heels are in great shape for a national seed. Top 3 RPI, terrific ACC record, strong NSOS. There’s not much not to like there about UNC’s resume.

Mike — I think you’ll see Louisiana Tech in our field this week. The RPI is getting better and they’ve got some nice metrics. With that said, it’s absolutely NOT a slam dunk case for Tech. Stolen bids could cause some serious anxiety on Selection Monday, so they need to continue taking care of business.

Bob — I love OSU, but it’s really really hard to pick against Florida right now. Boy, THAT would be fun.

Ethan,
TBD. I head out to Hoover on Monday, so I might watch all the national action from the cave before hading out for a week. We’ll see. With that said, I really liked DBU when I saw those guys against Sam Houston State a few weeks ago. Very offensive and Hannah/Granberg are terrific hitters. Granberg has such a presence in that lineup. I’ll take DBU at home.

Ryan — I think it just creates a scenario where you could have six regionals in the two Carolinas. Pretty wild, but ALL those teams are deserving as of today.

KD — If Texas Tech loses the OSU series, I don’t see how it could be a lock to host, still. The Red Raiders would be 5-6 games back in the conference standings and the RPI would take another hit. Lose the OSU series, and I think Tech has work to do in the Big 12 tournament to still host. Win the series and a powerful run in Oklahoma City could lead to a late national seed. Stay tuned.

Spear — Taking that NC State series would help, for sure. I love the fact FSU has 17 wins vs. RPI Top 50. In the event the Notes take that NC State series, I would think Clemson/FSU will be playing the ACC tourney for one top eight seed. Should set the stage for an exciting week in Durham.

Higher — I have a feeling Alabama might be the 1 seed at St. Peter’s … I kid, I kid. We’ll see what Mark has up his sleeve.

As for the SEC tournament, it’s always fun, but this season’s event should be terrific. Missouri, Texas A&M, Vanderbilt, LSU, etc, will all need to win games there to feel safe, I think. Certainly adds a level to intrigue the tournament doesn’t always have.

JB — Way out of the mix right now. Conference record is solid, but the Gamecocks still A) have a losing record vs. RPI Top 50 and B) have an RPI in the 40s. Would need to sweep A&M and go on a hellacious run in the SEC tournament. I don’t really see the first happening.

Right now, Minnesota, Coastal Carolina, Texas, Oklahoma State and then Auburn after that, probably. I’d give Coastal and Minnesota the edge out of that grouping.

Nick — They did. Melching Field isn’t bad at all. Holds a few thousand and is certainly a regional worthy facility.

Larry — Sure, the Gators haven’t taken care of business on Sundays the past few weeks, and maybe I’m being naive, but I’m not worried about these guys. They are just so locked in ….

Kavika,
I think the Beavers are really good, but I don’t think they would’ve taken over No. 1 from Florida. Looking at the overall resumes, OSU does still have series losses to Utah (still not sure how that happened) and Arizona. Florida’s weekend resume is flawless.

Rowdy — I would have Washington ahead of Arizona right now. Why? The conference record is much much better, the Huskies beat Arizona head to head and the RPI Top 50 mark is much better. Yes, UW has an RPI issue, but I think it would get in as of today even despite the iffy RPI. Arizona controls its own destiny to an extent these final two weekends, but I’m not ready to place much confidence on those guys.

I think DBU and Mo State are both in good shape right now (DBU made a big RPI jump this week and now looks like a lock). If somebody besides those two wins the conference tourney, the Valley could wind up being a 3-bid league.

Rob — If A&M finishes 13-17 and goes one and done in Hoover, I think it’s in trouble no matter what the RPI suggests. It would be one of those classic cases like LSU a few years ago when it had an RPI in the 20s and missed the field because of an iffy SEC record. The Aggies really need to take that South Carolina series this weekend. Do that and a postseason bid and sealed and delivered.

I’d like to see them try playing a game at the Durham Performing Arts Center! But for now I think we’ll have to settle for the Durham Bulls Athletic Park (DBAP). And no, I don’t think anybody objects to having the conference tournament there — it’s not like Duke has some huge home-field advantage, that’s just the reality. It’s a great venue for the ACC tournament, perfectly optimized to get the best crowds, with lots of restaurants and things to do nearby.

I think that’s pretty unlikely. Louisville is making a late surge, and it’s starting to feel like those guys could wind up pushing for a host spot late, because they could wind up with 17 or 18 ACC wins heading into the conference tournament — but they lost most of the series they played against the best teams on their schedule (the ACC-opening series over UNC being the obvious exception). Right now it does feel like the other 5 ACC teams are all on track to host… but if Louisville does manage to play its way into hosting, it will probably be at the expense of one of the other five.

Two wins vs. Florida and they’re in. One win and they’ve got a shot, but I think they’d probably need to do a little work in Hoover. Zero wins and they’re in big trouble.

Austin — They will look at all wins. Right now, I think Texas is narrowly out of a host site. The losing record vs. RPI Top 50 and on the road is troublesome. But if the ‘Horns take the TCU series and play well in Oklahoma, they will have definitely put themselves in position, IMO.

UNC – I do. I think if all goes well this week, he could see time on the mound this weekend against Va. Tech. But we’ll see what happens. Obviously getting Gianluca back would be a huge boost for the Tar Heels.

NEU — Definitely not out of the mix, but entering concerned territory after dropping 16 spots from last week. The Huskies need to avoid slip ups this weekend and in the conference tournament. You don’t want to give the committee a reason to leave a mid-major out of the field.

It does feel like the balance of power has shifted gradually to the SEC in recent years, and let’s face it, the place where the most people care the most about college baseball is the Southeast and Texas. That’s where the fans show up, so that’s where the programs invest the most heavily in their programs, which helps them attract the best talent, which helps them win, which causes more fans to show up, which leads to further investments in facilities…. round and round it goes, a cycle that feeds into itself. The West feels like it’s getting left out of that cycle. As you point out, there are still plenty of very good baseball players in the West, and there are still teams having success out there… but right now the depth isn’t anywhere near the depth in other parts of the country.

Cowboys — As of right now, I think it will be Tech and potentially OSU or Texas. I think even Tech is in big trouble if it drops that OSU series this weekend. Lots still at stake hosting wise in the Big 12 with the conference tournament looming.

I think the Sooners are pretty safe after winning that road series at UCF. Probably on track to be a 2-seed.

I think whichever team wins that FSU/NC State series in Tallahassee will factor prominently into the national seed mix. So yes, FSU certainly has a strong chance still to snag one of those top 8.

Yeah, Wichita really, really needed that series win — so that tie was a significant setback for their fading at-large hopes. There is just no winner, it’s just a split series. Not satisfying, but that’s why they say it’s like kissing your sister, right?

They’re a lock for an at-large spot — you can take that one to the bank now.

Ty — I think the Hogs are fine even with a series loss at Georgia. Win one game and I think they’re in good shape entering the conference tournament.

Oregon State, Stanford, Arkansas… and… geez, it really feels like that’s the top tier, and everybody else has bigger warts. But I kinda think Texas Tech is going to make a big run coming out of this off weekend, so I’ll go with those guys.

Mississippi State’s coaching search isn’t anywhere near locked up, but there are a couple of names I’m hearing more strongly than another of the Big Three. Let it play out, folks. I think MSU fans are going to be pretty happy with the result and hire.

I think both are way too far behind other teams in the hosting pecking order, but perhaps DBU could get within range at 29 in the RPI right now. DBU’s resume is still extremely light with a 4-5 mark vs. RPI Top 50, but never say never. If they can win the regular season AND conference tournament titles, and get near 20, it’s definitely a possibility.

I think it’s actually a pretty wide open race between Daniel Cabrera (who has a higher OPS than either of those guys), Kjerstad, Keenan and Casey Martin. I suppose I’d vote for Kjerstad, but it’s close.

Tex — Sam Houston’s RPI is 60 right now. I’m not seeing a Southland team in the 50-60 range getting an at-large bid to the postseason. I think the Bearkats are solid, but the resume just isn’t AL worthy right now. They’d be scary if they could win the conference tourney and get in, though.

I wouldn’t quite go that far — Bregman was one of the most special college players of the decade, and I don’t know that Cabrera will quite match that. But he’s obviously a really good player, living up to his blue-chip pedigree. He’s got a very bright future in front of him. And I could see him playing CF, sure.

Boiler — If the Boilermakers can win the Michigan series this weekend at home and play well in the Big Ten tournament, I think they will have put themselves in solid positioning. Purdue has been very good in conference, but the overall resume doesn’t have any real wow moments to it. Selfishly, I’d love to see them make the tourney with only two appearances in school history.

I know Kendall addressed this already, but my thoughts: Abel has great stuff, as we all know, but he’s obviously not a finished product yet. The fastball command is a work in progress, and he couldn’t command the breaking ball yesterday either. When he’s on, he’s obviously capable of being dominant, but right now it’s hard to rely on him giving you five or six strong innings. But I think that’s OK, because a lot of very good teams are piecing it together on weekends — get 3 or 4 out of your starter, then mix and match. And I still like the options in the OSU bullpen, between Mulholland and Eisert and Chamberlain and Pearce and Gambrell. They’ve got enough depth there. Bottom line: yes, they have enough pitching to make a run to the CWS, and a deep run in Omaha.

Jake — Wichita State has a solid RPI, but the conference record makes it impossible to get in right now. 7-13 in the AAC just isn’t going to cut it. Wichita could use a sweep this weekend and a run in the conference tournament. Do that and it could find a way to sneak in.

Great call, Bloomin’ Onion. I feel like JJ has flown under the radar a bit because he’s been there so long and people take him for granted, and because India and Dalton have had such big years. But JJ has really gotten into one of those classic JJ grooves here lately, as Kevin O’Sullivan said the other day. That’s a big-time senior right there.

Tanner — I think the Canes would still need to do some serious damage in the conference tournament. Right now, the Canes have an RPI of 59 with a 7-17 mark vs. RPI Top 50. No matter what the league record is, those are poor marks for an ACC or SEC team. They are showing some serious fight late, which is good to see. Would like to see Morris go out on a positive note.

Austin — I think the Bears are OK right now. I really like their offensive lineup, and Richard Cunningham is sizzling hot right now.

Side note: The NCAA should allow you to drop your lowest 3 RPI games. Why would a team like Baylor ever play a tiny-major or an HBCU again after this year? It makes no sense.

I like how they’ve recruiting — the future is bright. You’ve seen flashes already of how good Kier Meredith and Spencer Strider are going to be, and I think Sam Hall and Sam Weatherly and Bryce Teodosio are all going to be very good players too, maybe stars. They haven’t gotten a chance to play a lot this year because this is an older team, but they’ll be ready to hit the ground running next year. I think Owen Griffith is a big key, they’re going to need him to turn in a huge junior year next year, and I’ll bet he’s up for it. Would like to see Mitchell Miller have a big year next year too. I think they’re set up well.

I think they could get swept this weekend and go 0-for-Hoover and still be the No. 1 national seed. They’ve already locked of the conference, they’ve got more high-end wins than anybody, by a wide margin. Incredible season.

You get into trouble when you try to rank teams who have all played and beaten each other. Duke lost a home series to NC State; NC State was swept at home by UNC; and UNC lost a road series at Duke. Ultimately, those head to head matchups all come out in the wash. But UNC is 34-16 and in first place in the ACC with the No. 1 strength of schedule in the nation. Duke’s SOS is No. 67, and its nonconference SOS is 153 (UNC’s is 18). That’s a significant difference. Also UNC is 13-12 vs. the top 50, Duke is 6-6. That’s a very big difference. UNC still has the better body of work.

Cliff: I think if Kentucky sweeps Vandy on the road, you’ll need to cancel your vacation plans. If Kentucky wins 2 of 3 at Vandy and a couple games in Hoover, you may very well have to work during regionals weekend. If Kentucky loses the Vandy series, enjoy your mojitos.

Trip — if the Tigers can roll this weekend and win a couple in Hoover, I’d like their chances a lot more. The RPI is in line, but that conference record is a real problem right now.

I’d be concerned about the catching if Handley’s injury proves significant (Dave Esquer was expecting to learn more about that today, but he sounded concerned). And overall, this is just a young, inexperienced team. As I wrote this morning, they grew up a little bit Sunday, but still — most of those guys haven’t played in the postseason before. We’ll see how they handle it.

Tim — Roll the final two weekends and get that RPI around 50-60, and the Golden Bears could have a chance to get in for sure. They are like Arizona for me. They’ll sweep someone and impress you, then take a huge step back. They need to show consistency these final two weeks.

Oh, they’ve got a shot — they’ve been right on the bubble, just on the wrong side of it, since midseason. But if they win that last series over Duke, they’ve got a shot to sneak in.

I’d keep a close eye on the OVC, A-Sun, MVC, Sun Belt, and C-USA. Those are all conferences that have a team or two that are locks for at-large bids if they don’t win the automatic.