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Top 25 Chat: May 7

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  Top 25 Chat: May 7 (05/07/2018) 
9:38
Kendall Rogers: 

Hey all – Kendall and Aaron will be here to answer your questions at 2 PM ET …. be sure to get them in now!

Monday May 7, 2018 9:38 Kendall Rogers
2:02
Aaron Fitt: 

Hi everybody, hope you all had a great weekend. Let’s chat.

Monday May 7, 2018 2:02 Aaron Fitt
2:04
[Comment From SCMan18SCMan18: ] 

Thanks for what y’all do for college baseball! Can you tell me the biggest reason SC is not ranked? Is it RPI? Midweek games? Would a sweep of Ole Miss pushed them over the edge? Can we all agree that they are at least a firm number 2 seed in a regional as things stand now?

Monday May 7, 2018 2:04 SCMan18
 
Aaron Fitt: 

The Gamecocks are right on the cusp; we debated ranking them, and if we’d had a fourth open spot we probably would have brought them in. They’re definitely hot right now, and the last three weeks are loud. The overall body of work is still just a bit behind what Auburn and Georgia have done, so we ranked those teams ahead of SC. Maybe if the Gamecocks had completed that sweep, they would have forced our hand. Certainly you can expect them to be in the Top 25 if they win another series next week.

  Aaron Fitt
2:05
[Comment From EagsBy10EagsBy10: ] 

What are the chances USM goes to Auburn so we can see a Casey Mize vs Nick Sandlin matchup?

Monday May 7, 2018 2:05 EagsBy10
 
Aaron Fitt: 

Well, even if Southern Miss goes to Auburn in a regional, the Golden Eagles won’t be a 4-seed, and I expect Sandlin would start the regional opener in the 2/3 game, so even if Auburn saved Mize for Game Two we wouldn’t see a Sandlin/Mize matchup. Which is too bad — that would be fun! Two of the best pitchers in college baseball, and both performing at a really high level.

  Aaron Fitt
2:05
[Comment From DannyDanny: ] 

Also how huge was Iowa’s series win for their at large chances?

Monday May 7, 2018 2:05 Danny
 
Kendall Rogers: 

Danny — It was a strong series win for their postseason chances because it goes down as a marquee series win, but Iowa’s RPI actually dropped a little bit. I think the weekend was absolutely a net gain, though. the RPI at 50 concerns me a little, and the Hawkeyes need to make sure the conference record is strong. But they should pad that record the final two weekends of league play. I think they get in at this point. They’ve got some really, really nice series wins, and they can really hit.

  Kendall Rogers
2:06
[Comment From DougDoug: ] 

N.C. State swept the last-place team in the CAA and still moved up three spots. Other teams just play that bad?

Monday May 7, 2018 2:06 Doug
 
Aaron Fitt: 

Yeah, just simple poll mechanics — Ole Miss and Arkansas lost their series and needed to move down, so UNC (which was off this weekend) and NC State both moved up by default. Messy week in the top 10, with UCLA and Texas Tech also having bad weekends.

  Aaron Fitt
2:08
[Comment From DougDoug: ] 

Who’s more likely to host a regional, Duke or Florida State?

Monday May 7, 2018 2:08 Doug
 
Aaron Fitt: 

Florida State, I think. Duke has the better ACC record and swept the two head-to-head games, but FSU has a lot more high-end wins (16-11 vs. the top 50, compared with Duke’s 4-5), and FSU is 10 spots ahead in the RPI. I think there’s a chance both teams could host, but FSU is in the stronger position of the two.

  Aaron Fitt
2:15
[Comment From NCStateKCrewNCStateKCrew: ] 

The Wolfpack started winning again this weekend, but are they really “back on track?” Pitching still extremely iffy, and several guys still really struggling to hit, especially with runners on base. Avent made a point of scheduling a large number of home games against easier competition this season; will that strategy backfire from an RPI standpoint and just a general readiness to face tougher competition, considering it’s been a down year overall for the ACC? Obviously a series win at Florida State would ease those concerns significantly. This team should be fine to host a regional barring a total collapse, correct?

Monday May 7, 2018 2:15 NCStateKCrew
 
Aaron Fitt: 

Yeah, I still feel pretty good about NC State’s hosting case, with a 15-9 ACC record, a 10-6 record vs. the top 50 and just one series loss all year. But that No. 17 RPI does still keep them in just a bit of a danger zone for hosting, and that’s where that soft, home-heavy nonconference schedule does hurt them, as you suggested. I’m not worried about them being unprepared for tough postseason opponents, because they have had to play Clemson and Duke on the road, and UNC at home, and still have to face FSU. None of those teams are as good as Florida or Stanford, but they’re all quality clubs, no question, so NC State is plenty battle tested. I think if they can go at least 3-3 in their last two weekends to finish with 18 ACC wins, they probably will wind up hosting, but given that RPI it’s still not a guarantee. As for how they’re playing, I remain encouraged by Reid Johnston’s trajectory, I think he’s helped stabilize that rotation, and it looked like Gauthier was decent in that series finale, getting them into the fifth. That could be the answer they’ve been searching for on Sundays — they don’t need him to go 7 innings every week, but 4 or 5 solid innings would be an improvement from what they’ve gotten in that spot for most of the year. And I’m not worried about the offense, still love the talent and the experience; some ups and downs are natural for every team.

  Aaron Fitt
2:17
Kendall Rogers: 

Sorry for the delay guys …. radio bonanza today.

Monday May 7, 2018 2:17 Kendall Rogers
2:18
[Comment From EaglehornetEaglehornet: ] 

What keeps Southern Miss from hosting? Is there still hope for MS State?

Monday May 7, 2018 2:18 Eaglehornet
 
Aaron Fitt: 

It’s just the RPI — even after sweeping UAB, the Eagles are just 35th in the RPI, and you really need to be in the top 20 to have a chance to host as a Southeast team, especially as a mid-major in the South. I don’t see them getting there with their remaining schedule — but boy, that 19-4 record in C-USA is loud. Maybe they’ve got an outside shot if they can get up into the top 25 by season’s end, with a conference title under their belts. Mississippi State controls its own destiny — win those last two series at Kentucky and vs. Florida, and they’re safe. Go 3-3 in those games to get to 14 SEC wins, and they’ve got a chance. Anything less than that won’t cut it. And I don’t love their chances in those last two weekends.

  Aaron Fitt
2:18
[Comment From CajunfanCajunfan: ] 

What do the Cajuns need to do in the next couple of weeks to be considered for an at large

Monday May 7, 2018 2:18 Cajunfan
 
Kendall Rogers: 

Cajun — If the Cajuns can wrap up regular season play with a couple of series wins and make noise in the league tournament, they could get in as an at-large for sure. RPI is still in the danger zone, but creeping up to 55. I think they’d be barely in or barely out, and with the way the season started, I think Tony Robichaux would take that at this point.

  Kendall Rogers
2:20
[Comment From DrewDrew: ] 

Would you guys agree with me that Auburn needs to get 3 more wins in the SEC to host? Also, have you ever seen an SEC race this close, 12 of the 14 teams are fighting for spots 2-12?

Monday May 7, 2018 2:20 Drew
 
Kendall Rogers: 

Drew — I was just on Cole Cubelic’s show in B’Ham talking about that. I think if Auburn can get to 16 wins in league play, and continues to have a Top 10 RPI, I think it will end up hosting. Auburn, like some other SEC teams, really controls its own destiny right now. But remaining series against Ole Miss and LSU won’t be easy.

  Kendall Rogers
2:20
[Comment From Stromile SwiftStromile Swift: ] 

TCU sits at 27-18. Ugly RPI. Basically 2 wins over Tech, one over OU, one over DBU and very little else. Finish with 3 vs WVU, at SFA, and 3 at UT. Say they go 5-2 to finish. If they finish that well, would you call their postseason odds 50/50 heading into Big 12 tournament at 32-20 and 12-11 in B12?

Monday May 7, 2018 2:20 Stromile Swift
 
Aaron Fitt: 

I don’t think that would be enough. The problem is the RPI — they’re No. 67, and there’s no way a Big 12 team in Texas is getting an at-large bid with an RPI outside the top 50. The RPI Needs Report says they need to win out to get back into the top 45… So TCU really needs a red-hot finish.

  Aaron Fitt
2:21
[Comment From PiratePirate: ] 

If ECU stumbles and doesn’t end up hosting, is it almost a given that they would be the 2 seed in Raleigh?

Monday May 7, 2018 2:21 Pirate
 
Kendall Rogers: 

Pirate — I don’t think that’s a given, but that would be a good option. I think I’d take ECU if it was in that regional with NC State. How about ECU’s road record right now? 17-2. I still think ECU is in pretty good shape to host at the moment. I really like its body of work, and let’s not forget about that H2H series win vs. UNC.

  Kendall Rogers
2:21
[Comment From SammySammy: ] 

What does Mizzou need to do again South Carolina and Tennessee to be guaranteed a regional spot?

Monday May 7, 2018 2:21 Sammy
 
Aaron Fitt: 

To be guaranteed a regional spot? I think if they sweep both series, they should be safe. But Mizzou is in dire straights right now, at 9-15 in the SEC. I don’t feel very good about their chances right now.

  Aaron Fitt
2:23
[Comment From xx: ] 

Did Wichita State lose all hope of an at large chance this weekend?

Monday May 7, 2018 2:23 x
 
Kendall Rogers: 

X,
Lose all hope? Hardly. Wichita State is still 31 in the RPI. But the Shocks need to play very well the next two weekends and find a way to get that conference record (6-12) up. There’s just no way you could vouch for those guys being in right now. WSU is one of those teams where the conference tourney is going to be mean a lot.

  Kendall Rogers
2:23
[Comment From JoeJoe: ] 

Does College of Charleston have to beat South Carolina for any chance at an at-large? Or do they have to win the CAA tourney?

Monday May 7, 2018 2:23 Joe
 
Aaron Fitt: 

They’re probably playing for that automatic bid now, need to win the conference tournament. I don’t think they’re gonna be able to rescue that No. 73 RPI…

  Aaron Fitt
2:24
[Comment From ChrisChris: ] 

Louisiana Tech took a shocking series defeat at home against Middle Tennessee St. this weekend, dropping their RPI down to 62. What do the Bulldogs need to do from here on out to secure a spot in the NCAA tournament?

Monday May 7, 2018 2:24 Chris
 
Kendall Rogers: 

Chris — if I am being honest? Win the C-USA tournament. With an RPI in the 60s and 6-8 vs. RPI Top 50, I’m just not seeing a path for the Bulldogs getting in as an AL.

  Kendall Rogers
2:25
[Comment From Ethan HerremaEthan Herrema: ] 

Will DBU get three all americans in Granberg, Hannah, and Glowenke as a Freshman AA?

Monday May 7, 2018 2:25 Ethan Herrema
 
Aaron Fitt: 

I think there’s a pretty good chance of that happening. Granberg is the strongest bet, but Hannah’s certainly strongly in the mix too, and Glowenke has quietly had a really nice freshman year. Great group of position players at DBU.

  Aaron Fitt
2:26
[Comment From Dawgpound3Dawgpound3: ] 

What’s your PAC 12 stretch run predictions. Can UCLA’s offense wake up after a bad weekend. Who do you think will challenge for 3rd place & does a 4th team get a bid?

Monday May 7, 2018 2:26 Dawgpound3
 
Kendall Rogers: 

Dawg — I think Stanford, UCLA and Oregon State are all clearly in the field with UCLA back out as a host right now but certainly still in the mix. We’ll see on the Bruins, though. I think Arizona is probably back to being in (very close) after sweeping the Bruins, but that’s certainly not a slam dunk. I’ve liked what UW has done in league play, but no chance in heck they are getting in with that current RPI. That’s pretty much a wrap on the Pac 12 right now.

  Kendall Rogers
2:29
[Comment From Ethan HerremaEthan Herrema: ] 

How many teams can realistically win the title this year?

Monday May 7, 2018 2:29 Ethan Herrema
 
Aaron Fitt: 

Interesting question. There are definitely fewer teams that I REALLY like this year than I can ever remember… I feel like the national title will likely be one by one of the top teams in the SEC (Florida, Arkansas… maybe Ole Miss/Kentucky/Auburn as a darkhorse) or the Pac-12 (Stanford, Oregon State, maybe UCLA as a darkhorse). I don’t see any of the ACC teams as national title-caliber, and I still think Texas Tech is a legitimate contender for it but they need to get their pitching figured out. I don’t see a mid-major that I like nearly as much as I liked Coastal in 2016 — that team struck me as a club built to get to Omaha, really complete, balanced, veteran team. You can poke holes in all the top mid-majors this year, though maybe somebody like Stetson with its pitching can make a run, or Minnesota with its veteran offense, as long as its young arms can hold up through June, or even Indiana if they can get back to playing strong baseball.

  Aaron Fitt
2:30
[Comment From GKCO1234GKCO1234: ] 

how firm/flimsy are UCF’s chances of making the field of 64? Thoughts on this weekend’s series with Oklahoma?

Monday May 7, 2018 2:30 GKCO1234
 
Kendall Rogers: 

GK,
UCF is in right now with an RPI of 29 with 17 wins vs. RPI Top 100. I actually really liked the Knights over the weekend. Ray Alejo is an absolute spark plug and Rylan Thomas obviously provides big-time power in the middle of that lineup. The starters were just OK (Finfrock/Williams), but the bullpen was terrific with JJ Montgomery and Thad Ward leading the way. It wouldn’t shock me if UCF went on a run in the postseason.

  Kendall Rogers
2:32
[Comment From GregGreg: ] 

Weekly heat check- did UCLA getting swept by U of A basically end their hosting chances? Or has it dropped more to the 50-50 range?

Monday May 7, 2018 2:32 Greg
 
Aaron Fitt: 

Call it 35-65 against UCLA hosting, I think. They’re still 14-7 in the Pac, which is the best thing they’ve got going for them. But they need a strong finish to get that RPI up some more from No. 28. It could all come down to that Oregon State series on the road the final weekend — win that series and I think they host. Still got a shot even if they lose that series, as long as they play well in their other two weekends.

  Aaron Fitt
2:32
[Comment From BrandonBrandon: ] 

What’s up with Texas Tech? Poor pitching and cruddy defense isn’t what we’re used to seeing. How do we fix it?

Monday May 7, 2018 2:32 Brandon
 
Kendall Rogers: 

Brandon,
The main thing that is hurting Tech right now is it is being forced into the bullpen early on Friday nights with Davis Martin having his third bad start in a row. If Tech can get Martin right for the stretch and postseason runs, I think it will be fine. But Martin struggling has put a lot of pressure on that bullpen, which hasn’t been very good as of late. Imagine where this team would be without Caleb Kilian right now? Woof. I still love the offense, but no way this team gets where it could get unless Martin/the bullpen wakes up.

  Kendall Rogers
2:34
[Comment From D-MacD-Mac: ] 

What are the at large chances for DBU and Missouri State? What happens if someone like Bradley wins the conf tournament?

Monday May 7, 2018 2:34 D-Mac
 
Kendall Rogers: 

D-Mac,
Both are on the extreme bubble. I have a feeling we will have one of the two in the field this week, but not both. Also, if Bradley wins the conference tournament, I think it will be a two-bid league, but it’s not a given. Lots of scenarios in play here with those two teams, I just hesitate to feel confident about two teams with RPIs in the 50s.

  Kendall Rogers
2:35
[Comment From BennyBenny: ] 

Question ever Beaver fan wants to know…what do we do about Sunday? The entire team has 2 consistent pitchers, I don’t even trust the bullpen…

Monday May 7, 2018 2:35 Benny
 
Aaron Fitt: 

Sure feels like the right play now is to go back to Kevin Abel as the Sunday guy, after that 11-K long relief outing over 5.2 IP this weekend. And heck, I don’t know what you’re complaining about the bullpen for, Eisert and Mulholland are well established commodities that both pitched very well this weekend. Obviously it’s not as deep as last year’s staff, but if Abel can have a strong finish, I think they’re still in pretty good shape.

  Aaron Fitt
2:37
[Comment From Jim from Delafield,WIJim from Delafield,WI: ] 

Kendall/Aaron-Can you give me your feelings about the Miami program? It seems as if a lot of other schools have passed them by. I was at the Pitt series and some of the locals are frustrated they didn’t do a national search for a new coach. A few did say they felt Gino’s hands are tied right now as he can’t do what he wants. Since Gino is the recruiting coordinator is the talent level a reflection on him? Are they just too young and the kids weren’t mentally tough enough to be successful? I know they always seem to recruit the Miami are exclusively and that’s mainly it. That has got to hurt them talent wise right? I’m worried about the status of this once proud program!! By the way I’m driving to OMA from WI for my 19th straight year of CWS fun with games 5-10. Keep up the good work fellas!!

Monday May 7, 2018 2:37 Jim from Delafield,WI
 
Kendall Rogers: 

Jim,
Miami is really young, and I actually think the Hurricanes will be pretty good next year. We’ll see how the roster looks in a few months. But I get why Gino is taking over. Personally? I’d love to see Greg Lovelady leading that program. He’s got serious moxie and he’s got that youthful energy that Miami so desperately needs. I think he’d be an incredible fit there, but I get the Gino deal, and I’m willing to give it a chance. Never know until you try it, right?

  Kendall Rogers
2:38
[Comment From JBJB: ] 

Any concerns about UF and their 3rd starter? They playing with fire or much ado about nothing?

Monday May 7, 2018 2:38 JB
 
Aaron Fitt: 

I’m not worried about it. I still feel like Sully is going to get Dyson straightened out by the time June rolls around, but if he doesn’t, I still think Leftwich is good enough to give them quality outings in that spot, though I know he wasn’t great this past week. He’s very talented, and pretty mature for a freshman.

  Aaron Fitt
2:42
[Comment From Jordan from AustinJordan from Austin: ] 

A lot of postseason baseball is getting hot at the right time and building that momentum for the conference tourneys, regionals, supers and so on. Give me your hottest 5 teams in the country.

Monday May 7, 2018 2:42 Jordan from Austin
 
Aaron Fitt: 

The problem is it’s maybe still too early to predict who’s going to be hot in June — there are still three more weeks for a team that’s hot now to cool down. It’s hard to stay hot for 6 or 7 straight weeks. That said… Stanford and Florida have pretty much been hot for 12 straight weeks, so it can be done. South Carolina and Minnesota are two more teams that are hot right now and have caught my attention, and I really like how Southern Miss has played since Sandlin got back.

  Aaron Fitt
2:43
[Comment From JonesJones: ] 

What are your thoughts on St. John’s? Think they get an at-large if they don’t win the BE tourney?

Monday May 7, 2018 2:43 Jones
 
Kendall Rogers: 

Jones,
I’d feel pretty good if I am Eddie Blanks right now. With an RPI in the 30s, they are in good shape. But as always in that league, you don’t want to have any major screw ups down the stretch.

  Kendall Rogers
2:44
[Comment From Paul Molitor Twins HCPaul Molitor Twins HC: ] 

If Minnesota wins the B1G regular season, why shouldn’t they host as a ONE seed, regardless of how far their RPI will fall playing ‘RPI anchors’ Michigan State and Rutgers the next 2 weeks? I noticed your cryptic text ‘..for the time being.’ last night, KR. You know whats up. They are going to take an RPI hit, maybe a large one, playing those two opponents. Hosting as a 1 versus a 2 is a significant advantage in most cases. Playing a 4 seed from a ‘smaller conference’ is a whole different animal than playing a 3 seed from a ‘Power conference’ most of the time. Your thoughts on this and how do you plan to sabotage the Gophers hosting chances as a 1 since you hate everybody in the B1G (Especially Rick Heller the last few years…) and college baseball in general? Ha ha

Monday May 7, 2018 2:44 Paul Molitor Twins HC
 
Aaron Fitt: 

I’ll answer this one because we all know Kendall has no credibility. I think Minnesota is on track to host as a 1-seed, even if its RPI dips into the 20-25 range… but for what it’s worth, the RPI Needs Report at Boyd’s World says they can finish in the top 16 if they win 7 of their last 8, and they’re good enough to do just that. But I suspect they’ll wind up in that 16-20 range, which should be plenty good enough to host as a 1 seed when coupled with a Big Ten regular-season title.

  Aaron Fitt
2:46
[Comment From BrandonBrandon: ] 

How bout those Gamecocks? A near sweep of #4 Ole Miss! Don’t worry guys, I won’t cry about not being ranked like most of our fans, I realize this team was pretty bad for the majority of the season. My question is, are these guys a possible Super Regional team at this point? I’m not banking on Omaha, especially with the starting pitching still underachieving. But I think the offense and bullpen might be able to carry this team a good distance! What are y’alls thoughts on the ceiling for South Carolina right now?

Monday May 7, 2018 2:46 Brandon
 
Aaron Fitt: 

In the postseason, I really do like teams that are loaded with upperclassmen in the lineup and have good bullpens, and South Carolina checks both of those boxes. Is the starting pitching good enough to make a deep postseason run? Or can the lineup and bullpen make up for poor starting pitching the way it has recently? I don’t know the answer, but I do think South Carolina is dangerous. The ceiling is Omaha — they’re capable of doing it, if they play to their potential. I’m probably still not betting on that to happen, but they look very dangerous right now. Let’s see how the starting pitching develops down the stretch. Good to see Adam Hill pitch better this weekend.

  Aaron Fitt
2:46
[Comment From TateTate: ] 

What went in to D1BB’s decision to move #21 A&M out of the rankings after losing 2 of 3 to the #1 team in the country?

Monday May 7, 2018 2:46 Tate
 
Kendall Rogers: 

Tate,
What exactly have the Aggies done to stay ranked at this juncture? They were dominated in the first two games of that series, and have lost 2 of their last 3 series. A&M has an incredibly shaky bullpen, the offense is just OK and the starting pitching outside of Mitchell Kilkenny (who is very good) is just OK. That’s not a Top 25 team for me, at least right now. Win the Arkansas series and that would be the statement needed to get in.

  Kendall Rogers
2:48
[Comment From MichaelMichael: ] 

What does Texas Tech need to do do retain a National Seed? Looking back at last year, the Top 8 in RPI were the national seeds.

Monday May 7, 2018 2:48 Michael
 
Aaron Fitt: 

Yeah, that has tended to be the case with recent committees — those top RPI teams usually wind up as national seeds. But Texas Tech could wind up being an outlier, because being 4.5 games out of first place is a pretty significant knock on their resume, and they obviously haven’t played great baseball lately. But if they win that last series at Oklahoma State to at least narrow the gap a bit, I have a feeling they’ll still wind up as a national seed — I think it’s as simple as that.

  Aaron Fitt
2:48
[Comment From D1baseballfanD1baseballfan: ] 

What do you like so much about Southern Miss to put them at number 9? Even though their RPI is the worst out of any team in the top 25.

Monday May 7, 2018 2:48 D1baseballfan
 
Kendall Rogers: 

Because you need to look well beyond the RPI. Why is USM’s RPI bad? There’s one reason — because the rest of Conference USA, outside of FAU and perhaps LT, has been abysmal this season. USM has dominated the weekends, is a solid offensive team, and has one of the nation’s best arms leading things off on Fridays. This is a very very solid club, IMO.

  Kendall Rogers
2:50
[Comment From BillBill: ] 

What does Mississippi State have to do in the last two weeks to keep their postseason hopes alive?

Monday May 7, 2018 2:50 Bill
 
Kendall Rogers: 

Bill,
Ideally, you’d like to split those series against UK and Florida, but I’m not sure how logical that is at this point. Lose both and take one from each and that leaves you at 13-17 in the league. That would mean the Dogs need to do some serious damage in Hoover to feel comfortable. The RPI will stay within range, though.

  Kendall Rogers
2:51
[Comment From AhoyMateyAhoyMatey: ] 

What to you make of ECU and what do the Pirates have to do to host a Super, thanks for the great insight!

Monday May 7, 2018 2:51 AhoyMatey
 
Aaron Fitt: 

Win the American, get into the top 10 in the RPI, and I like their chances. Currently three games back of Houston in the loss column; let’s say ECU sweeps Cincinnati and takes two of three at UConn to get to 16-8 in the American — if they can do that, they’ve got a real shot at it.

  Aaron Fitt
2:51
[Comment From Oxford Bald EagleOxford Bald Eagle: ] 

If Southern Miss wins out and takes the CUSA championship, finishing consensus top 8 in the country, does the committee have to think hard about making an exception on hosting? Love you guys and thanks.

Monday May 7, 2018 2:51 Oxford Bald Eagle
 
Kendall Rogers: 

Oxford,
That is one thing to consider. If USM can get into the 25-30 range from an RPI standpoint, and it wins the conference regular season AND tournament title, I think they’d have an outstanding case to be a host. UCLA hosted a few years ago with an RPI in the 30s, granted that was in a power conference.

  Kendall Rogers
2:52
[Comment From Jim RoseJim Rose: ] 

You guys think Minnesota will get added consideration given the following: Northern school with few home games (even less this year), they lost two full games against St. Louis.

Monday May 7, 2018 2:52 Jim Rose
 
Kendall Rogers: 

Jim — I think even well beyond that, Minnesota is a slam dunk host as of today. Top 15 RPI — check, Great conference record in a good league this year — check, plus an 8-4 record vs. RPI Top 50 and a winning record on the road. All strong marks IMO.

  Kendall Rogers
2:54
[Comment From Athens2OmahaAthens2Omaha: ] 

Georgia sitting at 15-9 in conference with two weekends left. What do you think they have to do to secure a home regional? How about a top 8 national seed?

Monday May 7, 2018 2:54 Athens2Omaha
 
Aaron Fitt: 

Boy, Georgia is in good shape right now with that No. 4 RPI and 15-9 SEC record. It gets trick now, with series left at Florida and vs. Arkansas. I think if they win 2 of those last 6 games to get to 17 SEC wins, they host for sure. They may even host if they go 1-5 in those two weekends, because the committee has leaned heavily on RPI for hosting in recent years, and Georgia’s RPI is robust. Go 3-3 or better in those two weekends, and I have a feeling they wind up as a national seed.

  Aaron Fitt
2:57
[Comment From TimTim: ] 

What do you think about Arkansas’ chances at being a national seed after the series loss at LSU?

Monday May 7, 2018 2:57 Tim
 
Kendall Rogers: 

Tim,
I have concerns about Arkansas’ road record (5-11) when no team in the top eight the last five years has come close to having a record that bad, but I also keep going back to the fact the Hogs have had to play the top three Eastern teams, two of them on the road. Arkansas still has 11 wins vs. RPI Top 25, which is outstanding. I say the Hogs are still a national seed this week. We’ll see how my fellow Nerds think!

  Kendall Rogers
2:58
[Comment From eight26eight26: ] 

The Titans are 25-20 with 10 games left. They cold win out, given the schedule, but it doesn’t seem likely. They’re definitely looking like the preseason top 10 team that people thought they were though. Suppose they do win out … is that enough to land a regional host spot?

Monday May 7, 2018 2:58 eight26
 
Aaron Fitt: 

Hmmm… interesting question. The Needs Report says the Titans need to win out to finish in the top 32 of the RPI, so they’re probably not going to get up into the top 25 of the RPI, which is where I think they probably need to be to have a shot. We’ve seen Pac-12 conference champs host with RPIs outside the top 25, but this is a rotten year for the Big West, so winning that conference title won’t carry a lot of weight. The momentum argument would make it interesting — the committee loves those winning streaks… but probably too little, too late. I’m with you though — very encouraged by how the Titans are playing down the stretch. They look like they’ll be dangerous in the postseason. Amazing how they turn on the jets in Big West play every year, like clockwork. Rick Vanderhook can really coach — it’s tough love, of course, but his teams always get better in the second half. The proof is in the pudding.

  Aaron Fitt
2:58
Aaron Fitt: 

That’s gonna do it for me today, I’ll let Kendall take you home. Have a good week!

Monday May 7, 2018 2:58 Aaron Fitt
3:00
[Comment From Eric+SimmonsEric+Simmons: ] 

Can Stetson really host? I think they might which would be crazy!

Monday May 7, 2018 3:00 Eric+Simmons
 
Kendall Rogers: 

Eric,
I think Stetson is in terrific shape to host. Top 11 RPI, outstanding league record in an improved A-Sun and very respectable marks vs. RPI Top 50 and RPI Top 100. I would be surprised if Stetson wasn’t a host in our latest projections this week.

  Kendall Rogers
3:01
[Comment From Eric+SimmonsEric+Simmons: ] 

Why do teams with RPI’s in the 50s get the benefit of the doubt in the Pac 12 but not in the SEC?

Monday May 7, 2018 3:01 Eric+Simmons
 
Kendall Rogers: 

Because its’ a lot harder to have an RPI in the 50s in the SEC than it is in the Pac 12. The SEC teams typically play more “higher” RPI teams, hence typically better RPIs. If you have an RPI in the 50s as an SEC team, you clearly have some serious blemishes on your resume. That’s not to say those Pac 12 teams don’t, but it’s not as clear.

  Kendall Rogers
3:04
[Comment From MannyManny: ] 

I’m thinking A&M is most likely headed for a 2-seed and going on the road for regionals; any realistic hope of hosting remaining for my Aggies, in your opinion?

Monday May 7, 2018 3:04 Manny
 
Kendall Rogers: 

Manny,
Right now, A&M is probably a two seed somewhere. But it is absolutely still in the hosting discussion. At .500 in the league, the Aggies need to either win both the Arkansas and SC series, or take one from Arkansas, two from South Carolina and play well in Hoover. Do those three things (1 ARK, 2 SC, play well in Hoover), and I think they will have positioned themselves well.

  Kendall Rogers
3:06
[Comment From Eric+SimmonsEric+Simmons: ] 

Will the SEC get 11 or 12 teams in the NCAA Tournament? I say 11!

Monday May 7, 2018 3:06 Eric+Simmons
 
Kendall Rogers: 

I’m going with 11, E.

  Kendall Rogers
Kendall Rogers: 

Give me 11.

  Kendall Rogers
3:07
[Comment From What are the chances of texas hostingWhat are the chances of texas hosting: ] 

What are the chances of texas hosting

Monday May 7, 2018 3:07 What are the chances of texas hosting
 
Kendall Rogers: 

The Horns are very much back in the discussion after taking that series from Texas Tech. I don’t think it’s some sort of slam dunk because their resume is very similar to A&M, which won’t be a host this week. But the ‘Horns are in the discussion. We’ll see how things shake out when we do the NerdCast.

  Kendall Rogers
3:07
[Comment From HalHal: ] 

Well I guess it’s time for the weekly Mississippi State coaching search question. Any updates. Thanks

Monday May 7, 2018 3:07 Hal
 
Kendall Rogers: 

Hal — Nothing new. I do think MSU will get one of Dan McDonnell, Tim Corbin or Jim Schlossnagle. Speculate away …

  Kendall Rogers
3:09
[Comment From KurtKurt: ] 

Since they are now seeding the top 16 teams, will that allow for No. 1 seeds of opposing regionals to be from the same conference? For instance, if Stanford were the #1 seed and UCLA the #16, would they allow that to happen, or would they bump UCLA up to #1 to avoid that?

Monday May 7, 2018 3:09 Kurt
 
Kendall Rogers: 

Kurt – Yes. In theory, conferences can be matches up with conferences as 1 seeds. We will see if the committee manipulates things to avoid that, though. I would think we would see one conference vs. conference matchup to show that they aren’t going to do that, though.

  Kendall Rogers
3:11
[Comment From Geaux FrogsGeaux Frogs: ] 

Does TCU have to win out in order to make a regional? Their pitching is starting to come on, but it feels like their RPI is really going to be hard to overcome

Monday May 7, 2018 3:11 Geaux Frogs
 
Kendall Rogers: 

Geaux — It will require a series win over Texas and a strong run in the Big 12 tournament. Currently, TCU would have to win out to finish in the Top 45 of the RPI. The pathway is there to get to the Top 45 going to OKC, but it certainly won’t be easy.

  Kendall Rogers
3:15
Kendall Rogers: 

All right, gang. That is all the time I have today … We will have much more on the NerdCast. Be sure to go inside the postseason picture like no other with a D1Baseball.com Subscription:

https://d1baseball.com/subs…

Monday May 7, 2018 3:15 Kendall Rogers
 
 

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