Top 25 Chat: May 7

The Gamecocks are right on the cusp; we debated ranking them, and if we’d had a fourth open spot we probably would have brought them in. They’re definitely hot right now, and the last three weeks are loud. The overall body of work is still just a bit behind what Auburn and Georgia have done, so we ranked those teams ahead of SC. Maybe if the Gamecocks had completed that sweep, they would have forced our hand. Certainly you can expect them to be in the Top 25 if they win another series next week.

Well, even if Southern Miss goes to Auburn in a regional, the Golden Eagles won’t be a 4-seed, and I expect Sandlin would start the regional opener in the 2/3 game, so even if Auburn saved Mize for Game Two we wouldn’t see a Sandlin/Mize matchup. Which is too bad — that would be fun! Two of the best pitchers in college baseball, and both performing at a really high level.

Danny — It was a strong series win for their postseason chances because it goes down as a marquee series win, but Iowa’s RPI actually dropped a little bit. I think the weekend was absolutely a net gain, though. the RPI at 50 concerns me a little, and the Hawkeyes need to make sure the conference record is strong. But they should pad that record the final two weekends of league play. I think they get in at this point. They’ve got some really, really nice series wins, and they can really hit.

Yeah, just simple poll mechanics — Ole Miss and Arkansas lost their series and needed to move down, so UNC (which was off this weekend) and NC State both moved up by default. Messy week in the top 10, with UCLA and Texas Tech also having bad weekends.

Florida State, I think. Duke has the better ACC record and swept the two head-to-head games, but FSU has a lot more high-end wins (16-11 vs. the top 50, compared with Duke’s 4-5), and FSU is 10 spots ahead in the RPI. I think there’s a chance both teams could host, but FSU is in the stronger position of the two.

Yeah, I still feel pretty good about NC State’s hosting case, with a 15-9 ACC record, a 10-6 record vs. the top 50 and just one series loss all year. But that No. 17 RPI does still keep them in just a bit of a danger zone for hosting, and that’s where that soft, home-heavy nonconference schedule does hurt them, as you suggested. I’m not worried about them being unprepared for tough postseason opponents, because they have had to play Clemson and Duke on the road, and UNC at home, and still have to face FSU. None of those teams are as good as Florida or Stanford, but they’re all quality clubs, no question, so NC State is plenty battle tested. I think if they can go at least 3-3 in their last two weekends to finish with 18 ACC wins, they probably will wind up hosting, but given that RPI it’s still not a guarantee. As for how they’re playing, I remain encouraged by Reid Johnston’s trajectory, I think he’s helped stabilize that rotation, and it looked like Gauthier was decent in that series finale, getting them into the fifth. That could be the answer they’ve been searching for on Sundays — they don’t need him to go 7 innings every week, but 4 or 5 solid innings would be an improvement from what they’ve gotten in that spot for most of the year. And I’m not worried about the offense, still love the talent and the experience; some ups and downs are natural for every team.

It’s just the RPI — even after sweeping UAB, the Eagles are just 35th in the RPI, and you really need to be in the top 20 to have a chance to host as a Southeast team, especially as a mid-major in the South. I don’t see them getting there with their remaining schedule — but boy, that 19-4 record in C-USA is loud. Maybe they’ve got an outside shot if they can get up into the top 25 by season’s end, with a conference title under their belts. Mississippi State controls its own destiny — win those last two series at Kentucky and vs. Florida, and they’re safe. Go 3-3 in those games to get to 14 SEC wins, and they’ve got a chance. Anything less than that won’t cut it. And I don’t love their chances in those last two weekends.

Cajun — If the Cajuns can wrap up regular season play with a couple of series wins and make noise in the league tournament, they could get in as an at-large for sure. RPI is still in the danger zone, but creeping up to 55. I think they’d be barely in or barely out, and with the way the season started, I think Tony Robichaux would take that at this point.

Drew — I was just on Cole Cubelic’s show in B’Ham talking about that. I think if Auburn can get to 16 wins in league play, and continues to have a Top 10 RPI, I think it will end up hosting. Auburn, like some other SEC teams, really controls its own destiny right now. But remaining series against Ole Miss and LSU won’t be easy.

I don’t think that would be enough. The problem is the RPI — they’re No. 67, and there’s no way a Big 12 team in Texas is getting an at-large bid with an RPI outside the top 50. The RPI Needs Report says they need to win out to get back into the top 45… So TCU really needs a red-hot finish.

Pirate — I don’t think that’s a given, but that would be a good option. I think I’d take ECU if it was in that regional with NC State. How about ECU’s road record right now? 17-2. I still think ECU is in pretty good shape to host at the moment. I really like its body of work, and let’s not forget about that H2H series win vs. UNC.

To be guaranteed a regional spot? I think if they sweep both series, they should be safe. But Mizzou is in dire straights right now, at 9-15 in the SEC. I don’t feel very good about their chances right now.

X,
Lose all hope? Hardly. Wichita State is still 31 in the RPI. But the Shocks need to play very well the next two weekends and find a way to get that conference record (6-12) up. There’s just no way you could vouch for those guys being in right now. WSU is one of those teams where the conference tourney is going to be mean a lot.

They’re probably playing for that automatic bid now, need to win the conference tournament. I don’t think they’re gonna be able to rescue that No. 73 RPI…

Chris — if I am being honest? Win the C-USA tournament. With an RPI in the 60s and 6-8 vs. RPI Top 50, I’m just not seeing a path for the Bulldogs getting in as an AL.

I think there’s a pretty good chance of that happening. Granberg is the strongest bet, but Hannah’s certainly strongly in the mix too, and Glowenke has quietly had a really nice freshman year. Great group of position players at DBU.

Dawg — I think Stanford, UCLA and Oregon State are all clearly in the field with UCLA back out as a host right now but certainly still in the mix. We’ll see on the Bruins, though. I think Arizona is probably back to being in (very close) after sweeping the Bruins, but that’s certainly not a slam dunk. I’ve liked what UW has done in league play, but no chance in heck they are getting in with that current RPI. That’s pretty much a wrap on the Pac 12 right now.

Interesting question. There are definitely fewer teams that I REALLY like this year than I can ever remember… I feel like the national title will likely be one by one of the top teams in the SEC (Florida, Arkansas… maybe Ole Miss/Kentucky/Auburn as a darkhorse) or the Pac-12 (Stanford, Oregon State, maybe UCLA as a darkhorse). I don’t see any of the ACC teams as national title-caliber, and I still think Texas Tech is a legitimate contender for it but they need to get their pitching figured out. I don’t see a mid-major that I like nearly as much as I liked Coastal in 2016 — that team struck me as a club built to get to Omaha, really complete, balanced, veteran team. You can poke holes in all the top mid-majors this year, though maybe somebody like Stetson with its pitching can make a run, or Minnesota with its veteran offense, as long as its young arms can hold up through June, or even Indiana if they can get back to playing strong baseball.

GK,
UCF is in right now with an RPI of 29 with 17 wins vs. RPI Top 100. I actually really liked the Knights over the weekend. Ray Alejo is an absolute spark plug and Rylan Thomas obviously provides big-time power in the middle of that lineup. The starters were just OK (Finfrock/Williams), but the bullpen was terrific with JJ Montgomery and Thad Ward leading the way. It wouldn’t shock me if UCF went on a run in the postseason.

Call it 35-65 against UCLA hosting, I think. They’re still 14-7 in the Pac, which is the best thing they’ve got going for them. But they need a strong finish to get that RPI up some more from No. 28. It could all come down to that Oregon State series on the road the final weekend — win that series and I think they host. Still got a shot even if they lose that series, as long as they play well in their other two weekends.

Brandon,
The main thing that is hurting Tech right now is it is being forced into the bullpen early on Friday nights with Davis Martin having his third bad start in a row. If Tech can get Martin right for the stretch and postseason runs, I think it will be fine. But Martin struggling has put a lot of pressure on that bullpen, which hasn’t been very good as of late. Imagine where this team would be without Caleb Kilian right now? Woof. I still love the offense, but no way this team gets where it could get unless Martin/the bullpen wakes up.

D-Mac,
Both are on the extreme bubble. I have a feeling we will have one of the two in the field this week, but not both. Also, if Bradley wins the conference tournament, I think it will be a two-bid league, but it’s not a given. Lots of scenarios in play here with those two teams, I just hesitate to feel confident about two teams with RPIs in the 50s.

Sure feels like the right play now is to go back to Kevin Abel as the Sunday guy, after that 11-K long relief outing over 5.2 IP this weekend. And heck, I don’t know what you’re complaining about the bullpen for, Eisert and Mulholland are well established commodities that both pitched very well this weekend. Obviously it’s not as deep as last year’s staff, but if Abel can have a strong finish, I think they’re still in pretty good shape.

Jim,
Miami is really young, and I actually think the Hurricanes will be pretty good next year. We’ll see how the roster looks in a few months. But I get why Gino is taking over. Personally? I’d love to see Greg Lovelady leading that program. He’s got serious moxie and he’s got that youthful energy that Miami so desperately needs. I think he’d be an incredible fit there, but I get the Gino deal, and I’m willing to give it a chance. Never know until you try it, right?

I’m not worried about it. I still feel like Sully is going to get Dyson straightened out by the time June rolls around, but if he doesn’t, I still think Leftwich is good enough to give them quality outings in that spot, though I know he wasn’t great this past week. He’s very talented, and pretty mature for a freshman.

The problem is it’s maybe still too early to predict who’s going to be hot in June — there are still three more weeks for a team that’s hot now to cool down. It’s hard to stay hot for 6 or 7 straight weeks. That said… Stanford and Florida have pretty much been hot for 12 straight weeks, so it can be done. South Carolina and Minnesota are two more teams that are hot right now and have caught my attention, and I really like how Southern Miss has played since Sandlin got back.

Jones,
I’d feel pretty good if I am Eddie Blanks right now. With an RPI in the 30s, they are in good shape. But as always in that league, you don’t want to have any major screw ups down the stretch.

I’ll answer this one because we all know Kendall has no credibility. I think Minnesota is on track to host as a 1-seed, even if its RPI dips into the 20-25 range… but for what it’s worth, the RPI Needs Report at Boyd’s World says they can finish in the top 16 if they win 7 of their last 8, and they’re good enough to do just that. But I suspect they’ll wind up in that 16-20 range, which should be plenty good enough to host as a 1 seed when coupled with a Big Ten regular-season title.

In the postseason, I really do like teams that are loaded with upperclassmen in the lineup and have good bullpens, and South Carolina checks both of those boxes. Is the starting pitching good enough to make a deep postseason run? Or can the lineup and bullpen make up for poor starting pitching the way it has recently? I don’t know the answer, but I do think South Carolina is dangerous. The ceiling is Omaha — they’re capable of doing it, if they play to their potential. I’m probably still not betting on that to happen, but they look very dangerous right now. Let’s see how the starting pitching develops down the stretch. Good to see Adam Hill pitch better this weekend.

Tate,
What exactly have the Aggies done to stay ranked at this juncture? They were dominated in the first two games of that series, and have lost 2 of their last 3 series. A&M has an incredibly shaky bullpen, the offense is just OK and the starting pitching outside of Mitchell Kilkenny (who is very good) is just OK. That’s not a Top 25 team for me, at least right now. Win the Arkansas series and that would be the statement needed to get in.

Yeah, that has tended to be the case with recent committees — those top RPI teams usually wind up as national seeds. But Texas Tech could wind up being an outlier, because being 4.5 games out of first place is a pretty significant knock on their resume, and they obviously haven’t played great baseball lately. But if they win that last series at Oklahoma State to at least narrow the gap a bit, I have a feeling they’ll still wind up as a national seed — I think it’s as simple as that.

Because you need to look well beyond the RPI. Why is USM’s RPI bad? There’s one reason — because the rest of Conference USA, outside of FAU and perhaps LT, has been abysmal this season. USM has dominated the weekends, is a solid offensive team, and has one of the nation’s best arms leading things off on Fridays. This is a very very solid club, IMO.

Bill,
Ideally, you’d like to split those series against UK and Florida, but I’m not sure how logical that is at this point. Lose both and take one from each and that leaves you at 13-17 in the league. That would mean the Dogs need to do some serious damage in Hoover to feel comfortable. The RPI will stay within range, though.

Win the American, get into the top 10 in the RPI, and I like their chances. Currently three games back of Houston in the loss column; let’s say ECU sweeps Cincinnati and takes two of three at UConn to get to 16-8 in the American — if they can do that, they’ve got a real shot at it.

Oxford,
That is one thing to consider. If USM can get into the 25-30 range from an RPI standpoint, and it wins the conference regular season AND tournament title, I think they’d have an outstanding case to be a host. UCLA hosted a few years ago with an RPI in the 30s, granted that was in a power conference.

Jim — I think even well beyond that, Minnesota is a slam dunk host as of today. Top 15 RPI — check, Great conference record in a good league this year — check, plus an 8-4 record vs. RPI Top 50 and a winning record on the road. All strong marks IMO.

Boy, Georgia is in good shape right now with that No. 4 RPI and 15-9 SEC record. It gets trick now, with series left at Florida and vs. Arkansas. I think if they win 2 of those last 6 games to get to 17 SEC wins, they host for sure. They may even host if they go 1-5 in those two weekends, because the committee has leaned heavily on RPI for hosting in recent years, and Georgia’s RPI is robust. Go 3-3 or better in those two weekends, and I have a feeling they wind up as a national seed.

Tim,
I have concerns about Arkansas’ road record (5-11) when no team in the top eight the last five years has come close to having a record that bad, but I also keep going back to the fact the Hogs have had to play the top three Eastern teams, two of them on the road. Arkansas still has 11 wins vs. RPI Top 25, which is outstanding. I say the Hogs are still a national seed this week. We’ll see how my fellow Nerds think!

Hmmm… interesting question. The Needs Report says the Titans need to win out to finish in the top 32 of the RPI, so they’re probably not going to get up into the top 25 of the RPI, which is where I think they probably need to be to have a shot. We’ve seen Pac-12 conference champs host with RPIs outside the top 25, but this is a rotten year for the Big West, so winning that conference title won’t carry a lot of weight. The momentum argument would make it interesting — the committee loves those winning streaks… but probably too little, too late. I’m with you though — very encouraged by how the Titans are playing down the stretch. They look like they’ll be dangerous in the postseason. Amazing how they turn on the jets in Big West play every year, like clockwork. Rick Vanderhook can really coach — it’s tough love, of course, but his teams always get better in the second half. The proof is in the pudding.

Eric,
I think Stetson is in terrific shape to host. Top 11 RPI, outstanding league record in an improved A-Sun and very respectable marks vs. RPI Top 50 and RPI Top 100. I would be surprised if Stetson wasn’t a host in our latest projections this week.

Because its’ a lot harder to have an RPI in the 50s in the SEC than it is in the Pac 12. The SEC teams typically play more “higher” RPI teams, hence typically better RPIs. If you have an RPI in the 50s as an SEC team, you clearly have some serious blemishes on your resume. That’s not to say those Pac 12 teams don’t, but it’s not as clear.

Manny,
Right now, A&M is probably a two seed somewhere. But it is absolutely still in the hosting discussion. At .500 in the league, the Aggies need to either win both the Arkansas and SC series, or take one from Arkansas, two from South Carolina and play well in Hoover. Do those three things (1 ARK, 2 SC, play well in Hoover), and I think they will have positioned themselves well.

I’m going with 11, E.

Give me 11.

The Horns are very much back in the discussion after taking that series from Texas Tech. I don’t think it’s some sort of slam dunk because their resume is very similar to A&M, which won’t be a host this week. But the ‘Horns are in the discussion. We’ll see how things shake out when we do the NerdCast.

Hal — Nothing new. I do think MSU will get one of Dan McDonnell, Tim Corbin or Jim Schlossnagle. Speculate away …

Kurt – Yes. In theory, conferences can be matches up with conferences as 1 seeds. We will see if the committee manipulates things to avoid that, though. I would think we would see one conference vs. conference matchup to show that they aren’t going to do that, though.

Geaux — It will require a series win over Texas and a strong run in the Big 12 tournament. Currently, TCU would have to win out to finish in the Top 45 of the RPI. The pathway is there to get to the Top 45 going to OKC, but it certainly won’t be easy.