Postseason Stock Report: Week 10Featured
This time of year, a hefty majority of all questions submitted in our weekly college chat, as well as those sent via e-mail or Twitter, center around the battle for postseason positioning. Our readers want to know how the races for national seeds, host sites and at-large bids are shaping up — so it’s time for our weekly Stock Report feature. Every Wednesday, we’ll examine how the postseason picture has shifted over the previous week. This analysis is intended to complement our weekly NCAA tournament field of 64 projection, which was put together in a conference call with Kendall Rogers, Mark Etheridge and me on Tuesday night.
Below, we’ll look at who’s in, who’s out, who’s on the bubble for at-large spots, hosts and national seeds. This discussion is weighted much more toward performance to date and remaining schedule than projection based on talent, but it’s also not intended to show exactly what the field would look like if the season ended today. We’re still looking ahead.
During this discussion, we will reference the RPI Rankings through Tuesday’s games, and this week we did factor Tuesday’s action into our deliberations. And we’ll make use of records against the top 25, 50 or 100 in the RPI using the D1Baseball Nitty Gritty Report (also through Tuesday’s action).
We’ll get to at-large chances in a bit, but let’s start with a look at which teams are on track to earn national seeds and which are on track to host regionals through the first nine weeks of the season:
SECURE TEAMS: Florida, Miami, Texas A&M, Florida State
ON THE BUBBLE (IN): Mississippi State, South Carolina, Louisville, Texas Tech
ON THE BUBBLE (OUT): NC State, UC Santa Barbara
One change from last week: Mississippi State moves back into a national seed spot, replacing UC Santa Barbara
The Bulldogs fell out of a national seed spot after getting swept by Texas A&M two weeks ago, but we wrote that they could regain their position with a road series win at LSU this past weekend, and they pulled it off. No team has more high-end wins this year than MSU, which has now won road series at Florida, Vanderbilt and LSU and has a 3-1 record against Ole Miss. The Bulldogs are up to No. 12 in the RPI, and they have more top 25 wins than any team in the country (12). On top of that, MSU is now through the SEC gauntlet, and the rest of their schedule is about as favorable as it gets in the SEC — at Alabama, vs. Missouri, at Auburn, vs. Arkansas. It’s easy to envision the Bulldogs finishing strong and winning the SEC West, which would only solidify them more.
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