Postseason Stock Report: Week 11

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This time of year, a hefty majority of all questions submitted in our weekly college chat, as well as those sent via e-mail or Twitter, center around the battle for postseason positioning. Our readers want to know how the races for national seeds, host sites and at-large bids are shaping up — so it’s time for our weekly Stock Report feature. Every Wednesday, we’ll examine how the postseason picture has shifted over the previous week. This analysis is intended to complement our weekly NCAA tournament field of 64 projection, which was put together in a conference call with Kendall Rogers, Mark Etheridge and me on Tuesday night.

Below, we’ll look at who’s in, who’s out, who’s on the bubble for at-large spots, hosts and national seeds. This discussion is weighted much more toward performance to date and remaining schedule than projection based on talent, but it’s also not intended to show exactly what the field would look like if the season ended today. We’re still looking ahead.

During this discussion, we will reference the RPI rankings through Tuesday’s games, and this week we did factor Tuesday’s action into our deliberations. And we’ll make use of records against the top 25, 50 or 100 in the RPI using the D1Baseball Nitty Gritty Report (also through Tuesday’s action).

We’ll get to at-large chances in a bit, but let’s start with a look at which teams are on track to earn national seeds and which are on track to host regionals through the first 11 weeks of the season:

National Seeds

SECURE TEAMS: Florida, Miami, Texas A&M, South Carolina, Mississippi State, Louisville

ON THE BUBBLE (IN): Texas Tech, Florida State

ON THE BUBBLE (OUT): NC State, Ole Miss, UC Santa Barbara

No change from last week.

Texas Tech logoTexas Tech had a tenuous grip on a national seed last week after losing a series to Texas, but the Red Raiders strengthened their position considerably with a road series win at TCU. At No. 12 in the RPI, 9-5 against the top 50, first place in the Big 12 by two games, and with series wins on the road against their two legitimate Big 12 challengers (TCU and Oklahoma State), the Red Raiders are now in pretty good shape for a national seed, and the rest of the schedule is very manageable. The only issue will be keeping that RPI from dropping too far; the RPI Needs Report at Boyd’s World says that TTU needs to win at least six of its last seven games to stay in the top 16 in the RPI at the end of the season (although the conference tournament could provide more opportunities for an RPI boost).


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