Postseason Stock Report

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This time of year, a hefty majority of all questions submitted in our weekly college chat, as well as those sent via e-mail or Twitter, center around the battle for postseason positioning. Our readers want to know how the races for national seeds, host sites and at-large bids are shaping up — so it’s time for our weekly Stock Report feature. Every Wednesday, we’ll examine how the postseason picture has shifted over the previous week. This analysis is intended to complement our weekly NCAA tournament field of 64 projection, which was put together in a conference call with Kendall Rogers, Mark Etheridge and me on Tuesday night.

Below, we’ll look at who’s in, who’s out, who’s on the bubble for at-large spots, hosts and national seeds. This discussion is weighted much more toward performance to date and remaining schedule than projection based on talent, but it’s also not intended to show exactly what the field would look like if the season ended today.

During this discussion, we will reference the RPI rankings through Tuesday’s games. And we’ll make use of records against the top 25, 50 or 100 in the RPI using the D1Baseball Nitty Gritty Report (also through Tuesday’s action). We’ll also reference the Boyd’s World RPI Needs Report, which provides rough estimates for how many games a given team must win down the stretch to finish the regular season within certain key RPI benchmarks.

We’ll get to at-large chances in a bit, but let’s start with a look at which teams are on track to earn national seeds and which are on track to host regionals through the first 12 weeks of the season:

National Seeds

SECURE TEAMS: Florida, Miami, Texas A&M, Louisville, Mississippi State, Texas Tech

ON THE BUBBLE (IN): South Carolina, Florida State

ON THE BUBBLE (OUT): NC State, Ole Miss

No change from last week.

We’ve now had the same eight teams as national seeds for three straight weeks, with some variation in the order of those eight teams. Florida and Miami have occupied the top two national seeds in every one of our six projections since midseason, and Texas A&M has been the No. 3 seed for three straight weeks, so those teams are about as secure as national seeds can be with three weeks left before Selection Monday.

Miss St Baseball LogoLouisvilleLogo2015Mississippi State has been our No. 5 seed for three straight weeks, and the Bulldogs also seem like a safe national seed bet despite their No. 13 RPI thanks to their 15-9 SEC record and their four marquee series wins (three on the road). Louisville also moves up into the “secure” category after finally winning its first road series of the year, at North Carolina. With a No. 2 RPI, a 16-8 ACC record and an 11-8 mark against the top 25, the Cardinals are golden. Their 11-spot RPI edge over Mississippi State helps them jump MSU to claim the No. 4 national seed.


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