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Projected Field Of 64: May 18

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We’re less than two weeks away from Selection Monday, and several teams across the board continue to jockey for position. While the race for the final few top-eight seeds is heating up, we have two new regional hosts in our latest projections.

In terms of the top eight national seeds, the teams are the same, but there is some jockeying for position. For instance, TCU and Mississippi State dropped a couple of spots to 7 and 8, respectively, after tough weekends against UL Monroe and Missouri — both at home. Both teams are still in good shape for a top eight, but there are some teams to watch moving forward. Texas Tech continues to make some serious progress in the top-eight seed race. And while its conference record is somewhat problematic, the Red Raiders could eliminate that road block with a strong showing this weekend and in the Big 12 tournament. Florida, which has won five-straight SEC series, could get into the mix, too, with a series win at Arkansas this weekend.

In terms of the teams in the 9-16 seed range and hosts, there were two changes this week — Florida State and Pittsburgh are out, and Ole Miss and Gonzaga are in as Top 16s. FSU passes the eyeball test and has some strong metrics, but the committee didn’t put it on the list of 20 potential hosts because of an iffy RPI. Pitt was in the group of 20 last week, but the Panthers are down into the 40s from an RPI standpoint after getting swept at home by NC State last weekend. Ole Miss is trending upward after taking a home series from Vanderbilt, while Gonzaga swept Portland last weekend after returning from a COVID layoff. The Bulldogs have a strong RPI and did what every mid-major should do — play tough non-conference games and win some of them. Also keep an eye on South Carolina, Charlotte and Southern Miss. USM and Charlotte are a tick behind Louisiana Tech at the moment, while the Gamecocks helped their case a great deal by sweeping Kentucky on the road and getting up to 11 in the RPI. The Gamecocks could receive a huge shot in the arm this weekend by winning a home series against Tennessee.

Our updated bids by conference: ACC (10), SEC (9), Pac 12 (6), Big 12 (5), Big Ten (4), Conference USA (4), American (2), Missouri Valley (2).

FIRST FIVE OUT:

Alabama, Virginia Tech, Air Force, Iowa, UC Santa Barbara

LAST FIVE IN:

Indiana State, Tulane, Clemson, LSU, Georgia


D1Baseball staff writers Kendall Rogers, Aaron Fitt and Mark Etheridge assemble the projections

D1Baseball Projected Field of 64: May 18
FAYETTEVILLERUSTON
1. Arkansas* (1)1. Louisiana Tech* (16)
4. Oral Roberts*4. VCU*
2. Nebraska2. Florida State
3. Baylor3. LSU
NASHVILLESPOKANE
1. Vanderbilt (2)1. Gonzaga* (15)
4. N.C. Central*4. Connecticut*
2. Louisville2. Oregon State
3. Liberty*3. North Carolina
AUSTINSTANFORD
1. Texas* (3)1. Stanford (14)
4. Bryant*4. Lehigh*
2. UCLA2. UC Irvine*
3. Tulane3. Nevada*
KNOXVILLEOXFORD
1. Tennessee (4)1. Ole Miss (13)
4. Wofford*4. Southeast Missouri State*
2. NC State2. Georgia Tech
3. Maryland3. South Alabama*
TUCSONGREENVILLE
1. Arizona* (5)1. East Carolina* (12)
4. Grand Canyon*4. Campbell*
2. Oklahoma State2. South Carolina
3. Fairfield*3. Virginia
SOUTH BENDGAINESVILLE
1. Notre Dame* (6)1. Florida (11)
4. Ball State*4. Northeastern*
2. Michigan2. Charlotte
3. Indiana State3. Miami
FORT WORTHEUGENE
1. TCU (7)1. Oregon (10)
4. Abilene Christian*4. Stony Brook*
2. Arizona State2. Pittsburgh
3. Dallas Baptist*3. Indiana
STARKVILLELUBBOCK
1. Mississippi State (8)1. Texas Tech (9)
4. Jackson State*4. Wright State*
2. Southern Miss2. Old Dominion
3. Clemson3. Georgia
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AlumNi
AlumNi
4 months ago

Is there a reason why Nebraska, regardless of seed (#2 or #3) is always placed in the Fayetteville Regional with Arkansas when every other Big Ten team in the projections has a more favorable draw despite the Huskers consistently being in first or second place in the league? Thanks.

Dustin
Dustin
4 months ago
Reply to  AlumNi

Wondering the same thing. It seems like after the first seed nothing else really matters. Sometimes it looks like it’s geography but then UCLA ends up in Austin. My guess is also that, like softball, at least one of the 20 selected is not going to be the #1 in their own regional.

RICHARD
RICHARD
4 months ago
Reply to  Dustin

The #2 seeds are also ranked 17-32. The bottom four #2 seeds – NC State, UCLA, Louisville and Nebraska – will be paired with the top 4 seeds in some order. There is always an eye on geography, as close teams have easier travel as do their fans. Vandy/Louisville is a no brainer for multiple reasons: close proximity and established rivalry. Arkansas/Nebraska and Tennessee/NC State make sense geographically. UCLA by default gets Austin.

Husker from Omaha
Husker from Omaha
4 months ago
Reply to  RICHARD

This is a garbage post. He’s talking out of his arse guys/gals.

Ryan
Ryan
4 months ago

Eat a snickers… You’ll feel better.

Shotgun Spratling
Editor
4 months ago
Reply to  Dustin

Geography always plays a large factor in the regional placement, but there are certain things such as conference affiliation that limit geography. For example, UCLA ends up in Austin because there is only one potential non-Pac-12 host (Gonzaga) in the West and conference opponents can’t be matched up in regionals.

NapTownKid
NapTownKid
4 months ago

Unless you’re a 4 seed located in the Northeast. See Lehigh, Northeastern and Stoney Brook

Rzrbk32
Rzrbk32
4 months ago
Reply to  AlumNi

I’m not a fan of getting the Nebraska draw either.

John Deem
John Deem
4 months ago
Reply to  AlumNi

It’s just hypothetical AmumNi. But if Nebraska is going to win a National Championship, they’re more that likely going to face Arkansas at some point anyway. The D1 staff is actually very good at determining the regional arrangements because they undoubtedly understand the NCAA formula for determining who is sent where. If they do end up facing Arkansas in Fayetteville, look at it as an opportunity for Nebraska to prove itself. That’s what Michigan did a couple of years ago and they did it well. If Nebraska is good enough and play well enough, with a little luck they’ll win. It’s really that simple.

Tom P
Tom P
4 months ago
Reply to  John Deem

I sorta disagree D1 staff is good at pre-determining future arrangements because they understand NCAA formula. They like to play “what-if” game as much as we all do with the rankings (particularly as top 8 are established)…and then fill-in their favorite match-ups that they, as big baseball fans, would want to see. They stated in one of their articles how fun a Gonzaga- Oregon State match-up would be…so they made it true as this weeks “formula” allowed them to place a regional at Gonzaga.

And…I also think they make their brackets based on the MANY rivalry match-up’s that people bitch about here every week in the rankings. So…in actuality, we as people who write-in really make-up the brackets…as they merely put them some sort of bracket order that presents some fun match-up’s….and NCAA sometimes follows their match-up suggestions ’cause they read this stuff too….which in the end makes all our dreams come true. We all get to participate in NCAA’s formula creation 🙂

RICHARD
RICHARD
4 months ago
Reply to  Tom P

You have nailed it and exposed the conspiracy between D1 and the NCAA committee. Now tell us how ESPN exerts their influence. Do they have a direct link with D1 or with the NCAA, or both? 😉

Tom P
Tom P
4 months ago
Reply to  RICHARD

Oh don’t call it a conspiracy theory…please. Just pokin some fun.

Husker from Omaha
Husker from Omaha
4 months ago
Reply to  AlumNi

D1 keeps Nebraska in this regional because they are filled with fantasy and wishes. They think their influence on ncaa baseball will project on the committee. Its an ego thing. Worry not because the ncaa won’t match the huskers and razorbacks up before the supers for multiple reasons. The largest being $.$$ and the 2nd being views. Living in Omaha and having to suffer through all the D1 Baseball writers interviews on morning talk shows during the CWS gags me and honestly, very little of what they project actually come to fruition.

Nebraska is headed to one of the Big 12 regionals. Likely to the crossover regional from fayetteville but they won’t see fayetteville before the supers at the earliest. This fantasy of them as a 2 seed in fayetteville is a laughable and disgusting and absolute humorous projection by the ego maniacal writers call D1B.

Matt Collins
Matt Collins
4 months ago
Reply to  AlumNi

As a razorbacks fan, I was thinking the exact same thing!? That would be the toughest regional imo.

Matthew West
Matthew West
4 months ago

Mississippi State is still holding on to a top 8 seed. Going to have to bounce back against Bama and make a run in Hoover to keep that.

Rzrbk32
Rzrbk32
4 months ago
Reply to  Matthew West

Miss St deserves a National Seed. Bama is not a push over. As long as State doesn’t get swept they should be fine.

Wayne Heilbronner
Wayne Heilbronner
4 months ago
Reply to  Rzrbk32

why do they deserve a national seed? 4th in their league. After the weekend they might be 6th. They didn’t play Tennesse or Florida or Georgia, who starts 3 lhp that MSU cant hit lhp. also played the 2 worst teams in the east in KY and Mizzou.

MITCH F
MITCH F
4 months ago
Reply to  Matthew West

Interesting parsing of stats:

MState is 9-9 vs top-25 RPI teams, 14-1 vs 26-100 RPI teams
NDame is 0-0 vs top-25 RPI teams, 23-10 vs 26-100 RPI teams

But go ahead and place NDame (26-10 overall) as the 6 seed and MState (36-13 overall) as the 8 seed.

William
William
4 months ago
Reply to  MITCH F

It’s a 6 seed or an 8 seed. Who cares? Neither one of them is going to do anything.

MITCH F
MITCH F
4 months ago
Reply to  William

Shows what you know (or don’t know), William. The 6-seed is on the opposite side of the bracket in Omaha (opposite #1 Arkansas) and would only see them for the Championship series.

Additionally, the #6-seed should theoretically get a “weaker” 2-seed in their region than the #8-seed.

Finally, I was just pointing out the absurdity of the D1 top-8 seeds based on the metrics against better competition.

William
William
4 months ago
Reply to  MITCH F

Shows what you know. No one cares if you win a weak site. Oh yay we beat three nobody teams until we got to Arkansas and they swept us by 15 a game.

Wayne Heilbronner
Wayne Heilbronner
4 months ago
Reply to  MITCH F

if MSU gets to the word series with their hitting and fielding this nation will go in shock. I have seen better little league teams defensively

Matt Alexander
Matt Alexander
4 months ago
Reply to  Matthew West

Those are announced this week right? So the conference tourney is irrelevant

Josh Finkus
Josh Finkus
4 months ago

Lubbock looks to be a tough regional wow!

B. Allen
B. Allen
4 months ago
Reply to  Josh Finkus

Ok I will bite. Is that sarcasm or are you being serious? I am a Tech fan and I am not sure what to think that bracket. OD played Charlotte 8 consecutive games. How does that happen?

Michael Martin
Michael Martin
4 months ago
Reply to  Josh Finkus

So TCU and Miss St are both higher seeds but TT is #5 in rankings and won the series over TCU, how is TT NOT an 8th seed?

Ryan
Ryan
4 months ago
Reply to  Michael Martin

We’re sitting 3rd and pretty much locked into that in conference play. Highly doubtful the Big 12 gets three national seeds.

Ryan
Ryan
4 months ago
Reply to  Josh Finkus

As a TTU fan, I wouldn’t mind skating through to a super…

Rzrbk32
Rzrbk32
4 months ago

Looks like South Bend (ND) got the best draw. Ft Worth (TCU) got hosed. toughest bracket of the 16

John Deem
John Deem
4 months ago
Reply to  Rzrbk32

That would be a much tougher regional than it looks on the surface. I don’t think Notre Dame would win it. Michigan has been more consistent lately and Ball State is a veteran team with good pitching that is very dangerous. Indiana State also has good pitching. Notre Dame would be very lucky to come out of such a regional.

Corbin believer
Corbin believer
4 months ago
Reply to  Rzrbk32

Not sure about South Bend but I would agree that the Fort Worth regional is one of the toughest….all are pretty good teams.

Donald Peterson
Donald Peterson
4 months ago

Gainesville actually looks like a grinder—possibly the toughest regional

John Deem
John Deem
4 months ago

You may he right. That would be a very tough regional. The boys of Boston are another road-tested veteran team with good pitching and very good fielding. They are one of those teams like Ball State that you don’t want to see in your regional. Charlotte is very good, and Miami is always a tough out.

Alex
Alex
4 months ago

the Beavs still at a 2 seed?! I am shocked. I am also a Beaver fan. They are cold at the wrong part of the season and with their upcoming schedule Arizona and Stanford. Things arent looking to promising.

John Deem
John Deem
4 months ago
Reply to  Alex

Not looking forward to the Cats playing the Beavs this week. The Beavers have good consistent pitching. Don’t sell them short just because they’ve hit the tough part of their schedule. I expect them to take 2 of 3 against the cats this weekend. The Cats have not played well against solid pitching. The D1 staff probably suspects as much as well. They will probably lose 2 of 3 at Stanford next week. If they can beat a Portland team with good pitching tonight, they still have an RPI of 19th that won’t be hurt too much by a 3/3 split with Arizona and Stanford. In a regional such as the one the D1 staff have them in Spokane, I like their chances. North Carolina is playing with more consistency and the Zags have a couple of good pitchers. Connecticut is a good team. But UConn and UNC have rarely if ever experienced the nightmare of traveling to Spokane. They would both be disadvantaged in their first games. They both have the ability to come back, but I would put my money on the Beavs over the Zags in such a scenario.

Dillon Fowler
Dillon Fowler
4 months ago
Reply to  John Deem

I agree with everything you just said. When I saw Gonzaga was picked as the 20 finalist, my first thought was if the Beavs were put in that regional, they would have a good chance of coming out of Spokane.

Alex
Alex
4 months ago
Reply to  John Deem

I know I am being harsh but having watched almost all of their games this season the wheels are definitely loose. Mitch is changing the lineup every game and has only had the same lineup twice a handful of times. Kevin Abel has been struggling on Friday nights. I was looking at some team stats but its hard to look at those without context. Fielding %: .982 #8, Walks allowed: 181 3.68pg #67, Strikeouts: 498 10.1pg #32, Team ERA 3.24 #7. If they could shore up the walks the record might be a lot different than it is right now. I think the really strong start to the season is simply being balanced out at the end of the year and just arent hot at the right time. Im also forgetting that we are without one of the top hitters right now with Jacob Melton not able to return to action. That was a lot of lost run support. I still cant help but believe that there is some help being given to them for simply being the Beavers. It is starting to seem like a slightly down year and it was also that way to start last season. I am happy to accept a #2 in Spokane just feeling like its a little high right now.

Anonymous
Anonymous
4 months ago
Reply to  John Deem

They just lost to Portland. Now do you feel silly?

John Deem
John Deem
4 months ago
Reply to  Anonymous

Not at all. Portland happens to have a good pitching staff as I mentioned. Good pitching will win the day for anyone in baseball. That’s why Ball State and Northeastern are both to be feared. For example, once upon a time in a land far away called Philadelphia. There was a really bad Phillies team. It stunk to high heaven, and it still stunk after a young pitcher arrived in a 1972 trade from the Cardinals, named Steve Carlton. Steve won 27 games that year with an era of 1.97. Oh yeah, and he pitched 30, yes 30, complete games. The Phillies finished with a 59-97 record. Therefore, without Carlton the Phillies were 32-97. That’s a whopping.248 win percentage. That stinks. With Carlton on the mound, they had a .729 winning percentage. Even the best Yankees teams couldn’t match that. That’s how much difference pitching makes. It’s also why conference tournaments in baseball are just a sham to get more teams from one conference or another into the tournament. There is no momentum, even though individuals might have hitting streaks going on. The only momentum in baseball is whoever is pitching that day.

Andrew H
Andrew H
4 months ago

Eugene region gets the mileage award. Stony Brook, Pitt, and Ind. Can I get the frequent flyer miles for that one?

David
David
4 months ago

UNC has no business being in this tournament. None.

James
James
4 months ago
Reply to  David

Neither does Clemson. That’s an utter clown pick.

John Deem
John Deem
4 months ago
Reply to  James

The D1 staff does give a lot of love to the ACC. That does not mean the NCAA shares that sentiment this year.

BrunoVFL
BrunoVFL
4 months ago

Five years ago this time, TN fans were looking for every win just to make the SEC tourney and maybe win a cpl or more to get a regional. Times are good. GBO

JohnnyREB
JohnnyREB
4 months ago
Reply to  BrunoVFL

If chalk hold and the rebels can get to Knoxville I would really enjoy watching that series. I thought for sure y’all were gonna get Arkansas just as I thought My Ole Miss rebels had em game 3 but we just couldn’t get them last 6 outs and they took advantage. Good luck to the vols

K_Bob
K_Bob
4 months ago

Since D1 staff is against 3 big 12 teams in the top 8, I really figured Texas Tech would be back in over TCU after last week…. Tech won the TCU series, is back in the top 5, and has more quality wins but they also have more glaring series losses, so I get it.

B. Allen
B. Allen
4 months ago
Reply to  K_Bob

Does Tech have a more glaring series loss than TCU losing the first two and squeaking by in the third against ULM? I guess we will see since TCU plays KSU which was one of Tech’s bad series losses. Go Kats.

Last edited 4 months ago by B. Allen
B. Allen
B. Allen
4 months ago
Reply to  K_Bob

Ditto

Lumberjack
Lumberjack
4 months ago

I bet the AD in Ruston is happy. He’s going to be sold out! The coach may not be.

Martin Bednar
Martin Bednar
4 months ago

Maryland plays Michigan and then Indiana to finish the season. What do you think they would need to do in order to feel safe about getting a bid? 3-3? 4-2?…

William
William
4 months ago

Why are we even doing the playoffs? Just give the championship to Arkansas and every one can just start over new next year.

B. Allen
B. Allen
4 months ago
Reply to  William

Isn’t that what everyone thought about Oregon State a few years ago when they were 45 and 4 going to Omaha? We know how that worked out.

William
William
4 months ago
Reply to  B. Allen

I don’t even know if Oregon state has a baseball team so, no I don’t know how that worked out. I’ll assume they lost because they are Oregon state.

JohnnyREB
JohnnyREB
4 months ago
Reply to  William

It’s baseball… ANYTHING CAN HAPPEN IN ANY GIVEN GAME! Just like what happened to the Oregon State team few years back

MITCH F
MITCH F
4 months ago
Reply to  William

Dang William, let the games play out on the diamond. If there’s one team in America due for a let-down, it’s Arky given that they haven’t lost a weekend series all year. Arky’s lack of SPers is their weakness and they can only run All-American closer Kopps out so many times. He’s been way over-used in the regular season and I wouldn’t be surprised if we don’t see him run out of gas in June.

J. B.
4 months ago
Reply to  MITCH F

Why are so many people concerned about Starting Pitchers? Arkansas has had a pitcher on the mound in the 1st inning of every game, therefore they have starting pitchers. Granted some of them exits early, but Coach DVH seems to know when to go to the bullpen, remember they have won EVERY 3 GAME SERIES THEY HAVE PLAYED this year. Kopps seems to do OK , not over worked yet. DVH may even have a couple of pitchers in the bullpen that may surprise a few people.

John Deem
John Deem
4 months ago
Reply to  William

That encapsulates the SEC mentality in a nutshell. Just give each member a share of the National Championship every year without even having to compete with anyone from anywhere else. But, even then, I’m sure their fans could find something to complain about. .

Sutpens 100
Sutpens 100
4 months ago
Reply to  John Deem

That is NOT the SEC mentality at all. It’s the view of one ignorant, over-the-top Arkansas fan. To attribute that narrow-minded viewpoint to all fans of every SEC team is just as narrow-minded.

J. B.
4 months ago
Reply to  John Deem

John, what conference do you support?

Earle
Earle
4 months ago
Reply to  John Deem

You are one of those SEC envy fans. You know, it is getting a bit old.

James
James
4 months ago

10 picks for the crap ACC in what is a crap year for the ACC is an utter joke. Hard to take y’all seriously when you post garbage like this.

RICHARD
RICHARD
4 months ago
Reply to  James

Instead of hurling insults, why don’t you name what teams should replace which ACC teams. Just curious. I won’t even ask for reasons as I usually do with posts like yours. I’m sure they would range from convoluted to plain silly.

James
James
4 months ago
Reply to  RICHARD

Okay, Dick… Off the top of my head, replace Clemson with Alabama. That’s a no-brainer. One is a team 10 games over .500 from the toughest conference in college baseball with a Top 25 RPI, and the other is the Tigers.

UNC is another team that is being included based apparently on their history, not their work from this season which is borderline at best. Same is true of UVA. At the most, the top 4 from each ACC division have tournament-quality resumes, so if you include the Tar Heels, that would put 8 in the NCAAs.

Robert
Robert
4 months ago
Reply to  James

Hey Moron….UNC just SWEPT Louisville! Clemson just beat Louisville. UVA has won 5 of the last 6 weekend series,including beating 3 tournament projected teams since their 3 all-Americans came back from Covid and mono. Any team that can finish above 500 in a power five conference deserve to be in the tournament. All 3 of these teams have been on a tear since getting starters back from Covid.

James
James
4 months ago
Reply to  Robert

Hey idiot, are you trying to pump up that awesome Louisville team that just lost their 4th straight ACC game after falling out of the rankings? Same team that’s now sitting with an RPI of 54 and a SOS of 103? Yeah, that’s tough stuff in the ACC this year, fo sho.

Go borrow a clue from someone who understands college baseball then come back and try again.

Robert
Robert
4 months ago
Reply to  James

Are you really going to tought an Alabama team that has lost five of the last six, and inflated their overall record with the likes of Stetson and Wright State?! Gtfoh loser! Playing good teams to get your ass kicked should not help your strength of schedule!

James
James
4 months ago
Reply to  Robert

Show us on the doll where Bama touched you, Robert.

The ACC sucks this year. Get used to that fact.

Robert
Robert
4 months ago
Reply to  James

You are really going to tout that strength of schedule when you are 15- 17 since winning a series of a mighty Stetson! my God you have a 60% winning percentage over the likes of McNeese state,Wright state and college of Charleston! You morons scheduled for series with this group of losers to fatten up your winning percentage which is typical SEC because you get your ass kicked when it comes to playing in conference! Alabama is sub 500 in the last 32 games, and that’s what matters to the committee, just ask Virginia Tech!

Kirk
Kirk
4 months ago
Reply to  RICHARD

Alabama

KBongo
KBongo
4 months ago
Reply to  RICHARD

How bout Bama winning 60% of their games and Pitt at 58%. Bama with an RPI of 25 and Pitt at (gulp) 40. Result? Pitt a 2 seed and Bama not in. And that’s w Coach Bell admitting he cancelled midweek games so the RPI wouldn’t drop even lower!
Tells me to put zero confidence in D-1’s analysis and projection.
One week +\- to go. We’ll see hard the cards fall. I have to trust the Committee will do more homework than the intern who slapped this together.

Last edited 4 months ago by KBongo
JohnnyREB
JohnnyREB
4 months ago
Reply to  KBongo

If they would do this deal based mostly on RPI (like they do in most seasons) the SEC would have 12 teams in, the big 12 would have a couple more, pac 12 maybe more, and the ACC would have LESS for sure, no offense to acc

Robert
Robert
4 months ago
Reply to  JohnnyREB

Alabama wants to talk about their winning percentage but they are 15-17 since their Series win over mighty Stetson! I can’t believe you guys even count wins over McNeese State and college of Charleston. Anybody can come out like a house of fire against that opening schedule! 60% my ass!

Robert
Robert
4 months ago
Reply to  KBongo

Winning percentage of 60% when you’re playing Stetson and Wright State is not impressive at all! Bama has a great RPI because they keep getting their ass kicked by good teams! They have lost five of the last six games including again last night!

B. Allen
B. Allen
4 months ago
Reply to  James

A yeah!

William
William
4 months ago
Reply to  James

There’s 64 teams. A lot of them are going to be garbage teams. Let’s be realistic. There’s about 10 really good teams and 54 teams that might as well stay home.

Kenny B
Kenny B
4 months ago
Reply to  William

Are you new to college baseball, or just stupid?

Sutpens 100
Sutpens 100
4 months ago
Reply to  Kenny B

Maybe he’s just a dick.

JohnnyREB
JohnnyREB
4 months ago
Reply to  William

BUT… IT’s BASEBALL and anything can happen, that’s the fun in it all. You do realize this being a sports fan thing is kinda supposed to be FUN AND ENTERTAINING, right? No? Man why you even commenting, open you mind and educate yourself a little bit

Robert
Robert
4 months ago
Reply to  William

UVA won it all in 2015 from the #3 seed! Tell Coastal Carolina they should have stayed home

Wade U
Wade U
4 months ago

I think I’ve gotten to the point,
where I’d rather just listen to the “NerdCast”
than skim thru this in 15 seconds.

I might have a problem.
Nah!

Steve
Steve
4 months ago

Clemson in with a losing conference record and one game over .500 overall? Goes to show its not what you are but who you are.

Kirk
Kirk
4 months ago

Gawja and lsu lost mid week games and lsu was to NW state that puts bama in right surely that hurts their rpi

Walter Gauthreaux
Walter Gauthreaux
4 months ago
Reply to  Kirk

The midweek games don’t matter. As long as you take care of business in your conference schedule.

For example: LA Tech lost twice to LSU in convincing matter. LA Tech is a host LSU isn’t because LA Tech didn’t better in their conference.

Brandon
Brandon
4 months ago

So you can lose every midweek game and still come out alright you think??….I highly doubt that. If that was the case your rpi would tank. If you can’t win midweek you won’t make it playing through regionals or super regionals. Means you don’t have the depth.

Walter Gauthreaux
Walter Gauthreaux
4 months ago
Reply to  Brandon

Whoa who said anything about losing every midweek game? Kirk was talking about LSU losing one midweek game and that keeping LSU out of the tourney.

But since you brought that up, let’s say Arkansas lost every midweek game but won every conference game. Where do you think their tourney standing would be?

We aren’t talking about how a team that did this would perform in the tourney. Only about the team getting into the tourney.

Brandon
Brandon
4 months ago

Well when you say midweeks don’t matter, then it wouldn’t matter if they lost all of them would it? Because they don’t matter, according to you. I’m not saying where their standing would be, I’m saying even if you won the majority of your conference games, your rpi would take a good hit. Sooo they do matter. Do you think if Arkansas lost theirs, they would be in the same position they are now?

Walter Gauthreaux
Walter Gauthreaux
4 months ago
Reply to  Brandon

Yes I did say that, but again you are leaving off the second half of that sentence. “As long as you take care of business in conference play”.

For example Tennessee is 11-2 in midweek games (Lipscomb and Charlotte), and those two losses will have zero impact on their tourney ranking. Because they are 19-8 in SEC Conference play.

Brandon
Brandon
4 months ago

So what you really meant when you said “midweeks don’t matter,” is that some midweek losses don’t matter. Am I right in that? Because it is a different story if they lost, let’s say 8 or 9 instead of 2, right?

And no I didn’t leave off the rest of what you said. My whole point is if you lose enough midweeks, they do matter. To say just flat out they don’t matter is just ignorant and not true. Again I’ll ask, do you think Arkansas or Tennessee, since you mentioned them, is in the same position if they lost the majority of their midweek games?

Robert
Robert
4 months ago
Reply to  Brandon

Do you realize in 2015 when Virginia won the national title, beating Vanderbilt in the finals, they lost every midweek game except for the first one of the season? They won the national title using 4 pitchers in Omaha,including their ace as the closer in the final game.

Ryan
Ryan
4 months ago
Reply to  Robert

In 2017 LSU went 8-6 in midweek games and made it to the CWS final. They were 39-17 to end the regular season, ranked #5. If they had lost a few more mid weeks, they still would have been top 10.

Last edited 4 months ago by Ryan
HardHitters
HardHitters
4 months ago

Indiana State over the Salukis in the field? This selection committee is a joke.

Sutpens 100
Sutpens 100
4 months ago
Reply to  HardHitters

It’s a conundrum…Indiana State’s RPI and SOS are both twice as good as SIU’s, but SIU just took 3 of 4 against Indiana State. Maybe leave them both out…

John Deem
John Deem
4 months ago
Reply to  HardHitters

It’s not the selection committee, Hardhitters. It’s just the opinions of an online magazine staff.

Austin Prochaska
Austin Prochaska
4 months ago

Fayetteville seems like a hellacious regional for the unanimous #1 seed Arkansas. I thought post season play to Omaha was to benefit teams that dominated the entire regular season. I am not worried about Arkansas making it through but some of these lower ranked team are getting some absolute cake walks out of their regionals.

John Deem
John Deem
4 months ago

It’s only hypothetical, Austin. It’s like being in the matrix, it’s not real, just a supposition.

Austin Prochaska
Austin Prochaska
4 months ago
Reply to  John Deem

Right, I’m aware but all these speculative brackets the past few weeks from D1 (who is really accurate when it comes to this and what the NCAA decides) just seem to be brutal and rough regionals for the unanimous best team in the nation is all.

John Deem
John Deem
4 months ago

Once upon a time, there was a great UNLV basketball team with Augmon and a few others and no one thought anyone could beat them. They did not win the National Championship. There was also one upon a time an Arizona State baseball team (the best college baseball team I have ever seen) that produced 13 major leaguers from that one team. Not AAA players, 13 big leaguers. That team did not win the National Championship in 1976. I know, now I’m making you fret. But the point I’m trying to make is that if this is Arkansas’ if they have the heart and the luck, they do have the talent, and they will win it all. I understand that those who have the most tend to worry the most. The best team isn’t always the National Champions; the team that earns the National Championship wins it. But most of the time, it is the best team that also earns it. All the polls, all the speculation, all the opinions–even those of experts–are worthless. Focus on the team and how they are playing. Believe their numbers and talent. If you ask me, I think Arkansas fans have a lot of talent to believe in right now.

Jon
Jon
4 months ago
Reply to  John Deem

Actually that UNLV team did win a NCAA championship.. Damn..you are dumb

baseballin
baseballin
4 months ago
Reply to  John Deem

It’s D1B writers believing in their own hype. Picturing themselves as “influential” in the decisions of the ncaa. They aren’t and the ncaa selection committee will prove it. This is a for profit website. It’s why virtually “ever” article is nothing more than a tease and when you do subscribe the only thing they talk about is the SEC’s greatness. Rodgers, Kendall, Ethridge (or however they spell their names) have sweet and very lucrative niche going and all these suckers are lining their pockets. D1B is nothing more than a sounding board and promotional advertisement for the SEC and they are well paid for it.

John Deem
John Deem
4 months ago

If this potential, unreal, scenario does not bother you, Austin, then why are you letting it bother you? Nobody else is a clear number one like Arkansas. You are fretting over a hill of beans. Don’t have an apoplexy. Arkansas is going to get to play at home. If the competition is tough then what difference does it make? If Arkansas wins a National Championship, they will have to win it on the field anyway.

Michael
Michael
4 months ago

Notre Dame RPI 12, Texas Tech 7, Non Conf RPI ND 28, TT 12. SOS ND 55, TT 20. Non Conf SOS ND 230, Texas Tech 129. Top 25 ND 0/0, TT 8/6. Notre Dame played “1” top 25 team NCST #23, TT played 6 top 25 teams AR, Ole Miss, MSST, Gonz #17, TCU (won series), Texas (won series) and yet D1/NCAA has TT as #9 and ND as #6????

Last edited 4 months ago by Michael
John Deem
John Deem
4 months ago
Reply to  Michael

With a best possible finish of 15-9 in conference play, Tech is not going to win the Big-12. Notre Dame is going to win the ACC. There is something to be said for winning and not winning your conference, and it is possible that is exactly what the D! staff are trying to say. Now, if the Big-12 is too tough to win, then I suggest you persuade your buddies at Texas Tech to join the PAC-12. We’d love to have Tech. They’re a good team, and I’m sure the Red Raiders could win a conference title every year since they are so much better than all those teams from the left coast.

Sutpens 100
Sutpens 100
4 months ago
Reply to  John Deem

Texas Tech might win the Big 12 Conference, just as Virginia Tech might win the ACC. Just a reminder that the automatic qualifiers in the NCAA tournament for those conferences that hold tournaments are the teams that win their tournaments, not the teams with the best regular season conference records.

BrunoVFL
BrunoVFL
4 months ago
Reply to  Sutpens 100

I think the NCAA gives more weight to conference champs not the tourney champ,

Sutpens 100
Sutpens 100
4 months ago
Reply to  BrunoVFL

With seeding, I have to agree, but not w/ AQs from conferences that play tournaments.

SFRedRaider
SFRedRaider
4 months ago
Reply to  Sutpens 100

Red Raider here, and I believe we are eliminated from winning the conference at this point. Even with a sweep over KU this week we are only getting to 15 conference wins and TCU is already at 16. But agreed with the premise that TCU and Noter Dame are being rewarded for their projected conference championships. I wonder if TCU chokes again this week and UT sneaks past to win the conference, if we will see a third place in the conference Tech get the national seed over a second place TCU.

B. Allen
B. Allen
4 months ago
Reply to  Sutpens 100

Have you ever seen Texas Tech in the Big 12 tournament? They play that tournament every year with all the vigor of a Monday intrasquad scrimmage. I go to OKC every year and leave after Tech is eliminated which is usually the third day.

Sutpens 100
Sutpens 100
4 months ago
Reply to  B. Allen

Haha, no I haven’t. I’ve only watched a few Big 12 tournament championship games on the tube…and I don’t recall TTech being in one of the ones I’ve seen. Stick around longer this year, eliminate TCU, maybe you’ll swipe their national seed.

B. Allen
B. Allen
4 months ago
Reply to  John Deem

Yeaaaaaah, no! Can’t see Tech in the left coast conference. Please don’t take this the right way but I would much rather see Tech in a conference where the fans are appropriately inappropriately crazy. And that would be the SEC. There we could finish in the pack and be a regional host and a third place finish would pretty much guarantee a national seed.

Sutpens 100
Sutpens 100
4 months ago
Reply to  B. Allen

C’mon over!😀

B. Allen
B. Allen
4 months ago
Reply to  Michael

Affirmative action for golden domers.

Ryan
Ryan
4 months ago

Way to go ND… You’re landing a national seed by default. I get they’re taking their conference regular season title, but there are lots more better teams out there that deserve that spot in my opinion. And no, my comment is not geared to D1. It is to the ‘system’ of college baseball and how the committee selects national seeds.

Laura Thornquist
Laura Thornquist
4 months ago

May be a long shot but very possible, hoping UTSA can pull off an upset against LA Tech in the CUSA tournament. Some good teams in that conference.

Steve
Steve
4 months ago

Clemson lost at home tonight to Duke, now at .500 overall and 2 games under in a very down ACC. Still in?

James
James
4 months ago
Reply to  Steve

Not a chance. They needed to sweep an average Duke team at home to have any real claim to belong in the NCAA field. This loss should be the nail in their coffin, but the ACC cheerleaders at D1 will probably still find some way to project 10 teams from this mediocre conference to the tournament.

Marlon Powell
Marlon Powell
4 months ago
Reply to  James

I agree, if Clem’s son gets in, an injustice to a better deserving team.

James
James
4 months ago
Reply to  Marlon Powell

No need to worry, they just dropped another game to Duke, so their chances are finished.

Steve
Steve
4 months ago
Reply to  Steve

…..Tigers fall again to Duke 14-8 now one game under .500 overall, 3 games under in ACC.

Corey
Corey
4 months ago

Pitt being a #2 seed is laughable and disrespectful to all of D-1 baseball. All the committee sees is a 6 game sample vs Florida St.(overrated) and a descent Miami team. Being swept by bottom feeders in the ACC (Wake Forest and Va. Tech) not playing about a quarter of their schedule, due to covid related matters, and ending the regular season on a horrible 7 game skid has to figure in somewhere???