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Projected Field Of 64: May 4

Postseason
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SEE ALSO: D1Baseball NerdCast | ETHERIDGE: Who should the 20 hosts be?

Just a few weeks ago, we released our first in-season Field of 64 projections at the midseason mark. Since that point, we’ve had two projections, and there’s even more movement to report this week, particularly from a regional hosting perspective.

The most notable change in last week’s projections was Texas’ entrance as a top eight national seed. Even with a home series loss to Texas Tech, the Longhorns remain a top-eight seed in this week’s projections. There is one change, though, with Pac-12 leading Arizona entering the top eight after yet another strong weekend, and with an Oregon road series loss to Washington State. The Ducks remain a Top 16 and a regional host. As for the rest of the top eights, the order in the top five remains the same with Arkansas, Vanderbilt, TCU, Mississippi State and surprising Notre Dame leading the charge.

In terms of the national Top 16 seeds, there’s again more movement. Last week, we had Nebraska, Charlotte, South Carolina and Louisville as hosts and Top 16 seeds. This week, those four teams are out and these teams are in — Texas Tech, Ole Miss, Florida and Louisiana Tech. Tech picked up a huge road series win over Texas and has a very favorable schedule down the stretch, Ole Miss is in the driver’s seat after sweeping South Carolina at home, Florida is poised to finish strong after a series win over Vanderbilt and Louisiana Tech bounced back from a series split in strong fashion with a road sweep.

Our updated bids by conference: ACC (9), SEC (8), Pac 12 (6), Big 12 (5), Conference USA (4), Big Ten (4), American (2), WCC (2), Missouri Valley (2), Big West (2). 

FIRST FIVE OUT:

Maryland, Georgia Southern, Rutgers, Virginia, Kentucky

LAST FIVE IN:

Oklahoma State, Georgia, Iowa, Tulane, San Diego


D1Baseball staff writers Kendall Rogers, Aaron Fitt and Mark Etheridge assemble the projections.

D1Baseball Projected Field of 64: May 4
FAYETTEVILLEGREENVILLE
1. Arkansas* (1)1. East Carolina* (16)
4. Oral Roberts*4. USC Upstate*
2. Baylor2. South Carolina
3. Nebraska3. NC State
NASHVILLEPITTSBURGH
1. Vanderbilt (2)1. Pittsburgh (15)
4. Wofford*4. Lehigh*
2. Old Dominion2. UCLA
3. Georgia Tech3. Connecticut*
FORT WORTHGAINESVILLE
1. TCU* (3)1. Florida (14)
4. VCU*4. Florida A&M*
2. Oregon State2. Florida State
3. Fairfield*3. South Alabama*
STARKVILLERUSTON
1. Mississippi State (4)1. Louisiana Tech* (13)
4. Jackson State*4. New Orleans*
2. Southern Miss2. Louisville
3. Tulane3. Dallas Baptist*
SOUTH BENDSTANFORD
1. Notre Dame* (5)1. Stanford (12)
4. Central Michigan*4. San Diego State*
2. Indiana*2. UC Irvine
3. Indiana State3. San Diego
TUCSONEUGENE
1. Arizona* (6)1. Oregon (11)
4. Grand Canyon*4. Bryant*
2. UC Santa Barbara2. Gonzaga*
3. Oklahoma State3. Georgia
KNOXVILLEOXFORD
1. Tennessee (7)1. Ole Miss (10)
4. Wright State*4. Morehead State*
2. Virginia Tech2. Charlotte
3. Liberty*3. Clemson
AUSTINLUBBOCK
1. Texas (8)1. Texas Tech (9)
4. Stony Brook*4. Northeastern*
2. Michigan2. Arizona State
3. Miami3. Iowa
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CharleeB
CharleeB
2 months ago

Hope texas tech finishes strong and keeps a hosting spot. Looks live a fun and talented field of 64

Barry
Barry
2 months ago

Can’t wait for tournament time to come around!

Samuel Bond
Samuel Bond
2 months ago

Mississippi State has already played and beaten all 3 teams in their regional. Granted all 3 teams have improved over the season, but so has State.

Samuel Bond
Samuel Bond
2 months ago
Reply to  Samuel Bond

Why was this downvoted? I just stated a fact?

Reed
Reed
2 months ago
Reply to  Samuel Bond

It was a solid fact. I enjoyed the tidbit.

CharleeB
CharleeB
2 months ago
Reply to  Samuel Bond

Yeah I know mine about texas tech got down voted too. Just butthurt folks I’m sure

Jordan
Jordan
2 months ago
Reply to  CharleeB

Prob TCU, Texas, OSU, or WVU fans. You know…all the teams we beat every year.

B. Allen
B. Allen
2 months ago
Reply to  CharleeB

Dude you are upvote +14 to include mine.

Mark
Mark
2 months ago
Reply to  Samuel Bond

Then they should advance without any problem!?!?

Ryan
Ryan
2 months ago
Reply to  Mark

Except Tulane was 2 9th innings away from sweeping MS State. Would be an interesting rematch.

John
John
2 months ago
Reply to  Ryan

Yeah, but they didn’t. Instead, they lost two of three.

Gary
Gary
2 months ago
Reply to  Samuel Bond

You do realize that the D1 Field isn’t the actual Field of 64, right? It almost never represents the NCAA’s choice of the 64-team field. Defeating three teams that may or may not be in the actual post season field or play in the same regional is meaningless.

Samuel Bond
Samuel Bond
2 months ago
Reply to  Gary

Yeah? I was just making an observation? I didn’t say that we’d sweep it or anything. I literally just stated that State had played and beaten all of them…which is just a fact. I even stated that all 3 teams have improved over the season

Mr Rocky
2 months ago
Reply to  Samuel Bond

#SMTTT !!!

Reed
Reed
2 months ago

I love the Fort Worth “regional.” We got Connecticut, Oregon, Virginia and Texas. I’d much rather have this than those DBU and Sam Houston State matchups

B. Allen
B. Allen
2 months ago
Reply to  Reed

Yeah I think D1 shit the bed on that projection. You are probably going to get DBU. And maybe Tulsa if New Orleans goes to Arky.

Last edited 2 months ago by B. Allen
T. Roberts
T. Roberts
2 months ago
Reply to  B. Allen

Tulsa University doesn’t even have a D1 baseball program man.

Sudden Sam
Sudden Sam
2 months ago
Reply to  Reed

The Fort Worth regional has Oregon State, not Oregon. Oregon will host a regional. Two different schools.

wisCocksin
wisCocksin
2 months ago

How are UGA and Clemson in but Alabama’s not?

Sutpens 100
Sutpens 100
2 months ago
Reply to  wisCocksin

Agreed. Seems inexplicable to me, too…unless you believe in the conspiracy theories about D1Baseball & ESPN being in bed with the SEC East (but not the SEC West) AND the ACC. Oh, wait…I haven’t heard those (yet) either. So…I’d say it’s just inexplicable. Also inexplicable that the evil D1Baseball/ESPN/ACC consortium truly believes there are more tourney-deserving teams in the ACC than the SEC.

Could be a clever ploy to keep ACC & SEC East fans clicking on their content until the rug is pulled out from under them, and “they” direct the NCAA which non-ACC teams to put in the tournament…

….Or it could be three guys who know a lot about college baseball peering over the horizon and making reasonable (if flawed) projections about how the next 3 weekends + conference tournaments will play out.

Nah, gotta be a conspiracy. You people probably think Biden won the election, too.

Coop's Bones
Coop's Bones
2 months ago
Reply to  Sutpens 100

Redneck

Wayne Heilbronner
Wayne Heilbronner
2 months ago
Reply to  Coop's Bones

COOPS if you called Sutpens a redneck about of his Biden comment then u are the biggest dummy in the world if you believe Biden won an honest election.

Sutpens 100
Sutpens 100
2 months ago
Reply to  Coop's Bones

Don’t recognize sarcasm much, huh?

Bars for nard
Bars for nard
2 months ago
Reply to  Coop's Bones

Bitch

B. Allen
B. Allen
2 months ago
Reply to  Coop's Bones

You just offended the state of Oklahoma. “Up against the wall Rednecks mothers….”

Rick
Rick
2 months ago
Reply to  B. Allen

ah, I just found another guy who likes Jerry Jeff Walker.

John
John
2 months ago
Reply to  Rick

Mothers who have loved your sons so well, so well …

Rick
Rick
2 months ago
Reply to  Coop's Bones

name caller, true to your party though, where when intellectual dialogue is missing, and the ability to argue a point well, is also, I can see why folk like you always revert to name calling.

Kirk
Kirk
2 months ago
Reply to  Sutpens 100

Biden did win the election dumbass and bama should be in d1 baseball is shit at the field sorry not sorry.

Gary
Gary
2 months ago

Really? Getting excited about a mythical Field of 64 as D1Baseball sees it is pretty much meaningless. Yes, these guys are pretty knowledgeable about baseball, but when has their 64-team field ever looked like the NCAA’s at the end of the season? Get excited when the NCAA picks the actual Field of 64.

Steve Lane
Steve Lane
2 months ago
Reply to  Gary

I believe the last 2 years, they were 63/64 and 62/64 of getting the teams in correctly.

Rick
Rick
2 months ago
Reply to  Steve Lane

this is not, by chance, Steve Lane from Lexington, is it? Who now lives in Nashville? I know you if I hit it right!

TomM
TomM
2 months ago
Reply to  Gary

Steve Lane – I think you are right about the accuracy of D1 to guess the field. But wasn’t that after most or all of the games had been played?

And I won’t get excited about anyone’s 64 Team field guess till the games are played. It’s baseball on COVID. More talent / parity than ever before.

Last edited 2 months ago by GTNavy
Coop's Bones
Coop's Bones
2 months ago

ECU will be a sleeper.

Wayne Heilbronner
Wayne Heilbronner
2 months ago
Reply to  Coop's Bones

If Ole Miss were to get healthy which they probably won’t then they would be a big-time sleeper.

John
John
2 months ago

As it is, they’re just asleep. OMAHA – Ole Miss at home again

JayPak
JayPak
2 months ago
Reply to  Coop's Bones

Pirates don’t have the pitching.

Jay
Jay
2 months ago
JayPak
JayPak
2 months ago
Reply to  Jay

Right? UConn is on the ropes for meeting the minimum number of games to qualify for the Big East Tournament.

Thomas J Larson III
Thomas J Larson III
2 months ago
Reply to  JayPak

Because D1 doesn’t know that. They cover maybe 3 conferences, not D1 baseball.

Jerry Sanders
2 months ago

Hogs National Champs no dropped foul this year. Might as well not even play in Omaha.

Michael James
Michael James
2 months ago

Never count out s miss or la tech. It’s tourney ball. Big diff. Anybody well almost. Can wind up n Omaha

Rick R
Rick R
2 months ago

Does Fairfield get an at large bid if they fail to win the MAAC tournament?

JON
JON
2 months ago

What do the asterisks mean?

Matthew West
Matthew West
2 months ago
Reply to  JON

Automatic bid for conference champions

Rick
Rick
2 months ago

seems there are some top 16 seeds who have yet to, or just did, crack the top 20 in the rankings. Looks like the ol’ NCAA “opportunity for all” gerrymandering going on. I need to check Oregon and Stanford, maybe they are both top 16 teams, but the polls (until just now for Stanford, and barely, at that) surely have not agreed with this. Wonder what the conference RPI is for the PAC-12? Surely is behind the SEC, ACC and Big 12. Also, looks like the “Covid” missed series that originated at the U. of Pittsburgh, turned into an advantage over say, Louisville. Not sure I get how you miss a series, your fault, then you jump the team who was supposed to have played you, while staying behind that team until now in polls. Also, what happened to avoiding COVID hot spots? But, sure sounds like the typical NCAA logic to me! I mean, what other corporation or institution in America re-ups the contract for a bungler the magnitude of Emmert? Only in education, and all its trimmings can such a ridiculous thing happen.

Last, seems the ECU seeding is way off from their rankings over the past 6 weeks. How does their conference RPI compare to the PAC-12? If it is about the same, this surely is rude, unfair treatment for ECU and a bonus for a PAC-12 whose RPI is at best, 4th. And maybe more like 4a, with ECU’s conference being 4b. That gets you two teams? Suppose that is reward for being relevant quite a while ago, or maybe the continuous rewards bestowed upon Power 5 Conferences, by the NCAA. Hope you guys are trying to “think like the NCAA”, with this, and not really believing that all of a sudden a Top 10, + or – 2 spots, gets you the 16th seed. Again, I thought the NCAA hated such rich man, poor man setups. This appears based more upon 25 years of NCAA tourney history than it is based on 2021.

Mr Rocky
2 months ago

Can the NCAA just look at Texas and lift all restrictions? Let people be adults and go if they want to and stay home if uncomfortable. This continued restriction is idiotic. Rangers have been shoulder to shoulder since April with no surge and cases plummeted.

Kathleen
Kathleen
2 months ago

Time for Kansas State to be in for once especially after the last couple of weeks!!!

Last edited 2 months ago by Kathleen