College Baseball Projected Field Of 64: May 25Projections
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Conference tournament action continues around the country and situations can change on a dime.
Look at the hosting situation as a prime example. The final few hosts sites have changed a couple of times this week. UC Santa Barbara and Miami were both hosts in Friday’s projections. However, the two are out today with LSU and Texas A&M taking their places. UCSB dropped a second straight home game to Cal Poly and is down to 21 in the RPI. The Gauchos also need to win Saturday to win the Big West title and automatic bid. Meanwhile, Miami dropped a contest to North Carolina at the ACC tournament and dropped to 18 in the RPI. The Hurricanes are still very much in the hosting discussion, but North Carolina has moved ahead in the pecking order with a strong head-to-head advantage, higher RPI and superior Top 50 and 100 metrics. LSU is now comfortably in as a regional host after beating Mississippi State at the SEC tournament. The Tigers are up to 16 in the RPI, alleviating their biggest blemish earlier this week (they were No. 21 entering Friday). They also have 21 RPI Top 50 wins along with a whopping 11 Top 25 RPI wins.
While LSU appears comfortable, A&M’s situation is very fluid. The Aggies dropped out in Friday’s projections, but are back in with two teams falling out. The Aggies have a solid RPI in their favor, along with other solid metrics. However, their aggregate 17-15-1 SEC record could be problematic, and UNC could bolster its hosting chances with another win at the ACC tourney on Saturday against Boston College. The Tar Heels are knocking on the door and could knock the Aggies out with another win or two in Durham. Ole Miss is red-hot at the SEC tournament and its RPI continues to climb. However, the Rebels are still sitting at 24 in the RPI and need to win tomorrow and get some help ahead of them. Also keep an eye on Creighton, which has an RPI of 22 and continues to take care of business at the Big East tournament.
The top eight seeds remain the same, but with some slight changes in terms of the order. Georgia Tech won another game at the ACC tournament on Friday and moves to the No. 6 seed, while Louisville and Texas Tech round out the top eight seeds at Nos. 7 and 8, respectively. East Carolina could easily be a top eight seed, but is out for now after going 1-2 at the American tournament. Keep an eye on Oklahoma State, which is up to 6 in the RPI, has 31 Top 100 wins and has the nation’s No. 2 nonconference strength of schedule. The Pokes could play spoiler and knock someone out of the top eight if they win the Big 12 tournament.
We had one change in the at-large race. BYU was eliminated from the West Coast Conference tournament, but we think the Cougars stand a strong chance to land an at-large spot after winning the WCC’s regular-season title. So BYU joins the at-large pool and knocks UC Irvine out of our field. The Anteaters dropped to No. 55 in the RPI after taking a bad loss at UC Riverside on Friday, and they’re still just 0-5 against the top 50. If Cal Poly can complete its sweep of UCSB with another win Saturday, the Mustangs will swoop in and take the Big West’s automatic bid, and that would surely seal Irvine’s doom. For now, the Anteaters are our first team out of the field.
There’s plenty at stake entering Saturday’s action, as Mark Etheridge, Kendall Rogers and Aaron Fitt unveil the latest field.
The Bubble Ladder
|IN THE FIELD, BUT NOT COMFORTABLY:|
|57. Florida State|
|LAST FIVE IN:|
|60. Texas State|
|FIRST FIVE OUT:|
|65. UC Irvine|
|67. Southern Miss|
|LOS ANGELES||COLLEGE STATION|
|1 UCLA* (1)||1 Texas A&M (16)|
|4 Loyola Marymount*||4 Bryant*|
|3 Fresno State*||3 Houston|
|2 Illinois State||2 Baylor|
|1 Vanderbilt* (2)||1 NC State (15)|
|4 Fordham*||4 UNC Wilmington*|
|3 Samford*||3 Campbell*|
|2 Connecticut||2 Tennessee|
|1 Mississippi State (3)||1 LSU (14)|
|4 Jacksonville State*||4 Southern*|
|3 Clemson||3 SE Louisiana*|
|2 Nebraska||2 Miami|
|1 Georgia (4)||1 West Virginia (13)|
|4 Florida A&M*||4 Army*|
|3 Georgia Southern*||3 Florida|
|2 Illinois||2 North Carolina|
|1 Arkansas (5)||1 Stanford (12)|
|4 Omaha*||4 Harvard*|
|3 Florida Atlantic*||3 Michigan|
|2 Creighton*||2 UC Santa Barbara*|
|1 Georgia Tech* (6)||1 Oregon State (11)|
|4 Central Michigan*||4 Quinnipiac*|
|3 UCF||3 BYU|
|2 Ole Miss||2 Auburn|
|1 Louisville (7)||1 East Carolina (10)|
|4 Illinois-Chicago*||4 Stetson*|
|3 Indiana State*||3 Duke|
|2 California||2 Indiana|
|1 Texas Tech (8)||1 Oklahoma State* (9)|
|4 Grand Canyon*||4 Stony Brook*|
|3 Texas State||3 Florida State|
|2 Arizona State||2 Dallas Baptist|