D1Baseball Field of 64 Projections: Week 11


>> ANALYSIS: Postseason Stock Report
>> Latest RPI
>> PODCAST: The D1Baseball Nerdcast: Week 11
>> Check out D1Baseball’s SEC Extra
>> Here’s what has our attention in Week 11

We’re past the midseason mark of the 2023 Division I Baseball season, and as you might imagine, there are a lot of changes to our postseason projections from the midseason mark to last week, and moving on to this week.

LSU, Wake Forest and South Carolina headline the top eight national seeds. LSU remains the top national seed after yet another series win last weekend, while Wake Forest continues to inch closer after having another monster week as well. Then, there’s South Carolina, which moved from the No. 5 seed to the No. 3 seed this week after a magical showing against Florida in Columbia. The Gamecock are inching closer to the Tigers and Demon Deacons with the nation’s top RPI, along with a 7-4 mark vs. RPI Top 25 and 16-5 record vs. RPI Top 50. Vanderbilt and Arkansas round out the top five national seeds, while Florida and Virginia are back in as top eights, and Coastal Carolina entered this week at No. 6. Coastal headlines the Sun Belt and has solid metrics.

As for the rest of the Top 16 hosts, Miami, Texas and Kentucky dropped out this week. The Hurricanes are down to 24 in the RPI and have losing records vs. RPI Top 25 and RPI Top 50, Texas is down to 37 in the RPI and is now in the middle of the pack in the Big 12. The Longhorns have dropped 20 spots in the RPI in the last week after getting swept by Oklahoma at home. Kentucky is the most notable omission. The Wildcats are still No. 2 with a 7-4 record vs. RPI Top 25 and 16-8 mark vs. RPI Top 50. However, we’re projecting and the remaining schedule isn’t kind to UK — road series against Vanderbilt and Tennessee, and home series against South Carolina and Florida. In other words, if UK hosts in the NCAA tournament, it will have certainly earned it.

In terms of overall bids to the postseason, the SEC and ACC lead the way with 10 bids each. The PAC-12 has six bids in our projections and the Big 12 has five, while three each come from the Sun Belt and Big Ten. Finally, at least two bids come from the Big West, Conference USA and Colonial Athletic Association.

Mark Etheridge, Kendall Rogers and Aaron Fitt assembled the postseason projections.

LAST FIVE IN: Southern California, Georgia, TCU, Maryland, Virginia Tech
FIRST FIVE OUT: Auburn, Kansas State, Rutgers, North Carolina, Texas State

2023 Field of 64 Projections: Week 11
1 LSU* (1)1 Duke (16)
4 Nicholls*4 Columbia*
2 Southern Miss2 East Carolina*
3 Southern California3 Georgia
1 Wake Forest* (2)1 West Virginia* (15)
4 Rider*4 Central Michigan*
2 Alabama2 Kentucky
3 UNC Wilmington*3 Virginia Tech
1 South Carolina (3)1 Oregon (14)
4 Army*4 Loyola Marymount*
2 Campbell*2 UTSA
3 NC State3 Cal State Fullerton*
1 Vanderbilt (4)1 Dallas Baptist* (13)
4 Alabama State*4 Oral Roberts*
2 Indiana State*2 Texas A&M
3 Louisville3 Texas Tech
1 Arkansas (5)1 Indiana* (12)
4 SE Missouri State*4 Wright State*
2 Texas2 Tennessee
3 Iowa3 Notre Dame
1 Coastal Carolina* (6)1 Connecticut* (11)
4 Davidson*4 Central Conn. State*
2 Clemson2 Miami
3 Wofford*3 UCLA
1 Florida (7)1 Boston College (10)
4 Florida Gulf Coast*4 Maine*
2 Arizona State2 Oklahoma State
3 Troy3 Northeastern
1 Virginia (8)1 Stanford* (9)
4 Sam Houston*4 San Jose State*
2 Oregon State2 UC Santa Barbara
3 Maryland3 TCU