Midseason Field of 64 Projections 2021
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Midseason Report: Projected Field Of 64

Projections
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SEE ALSO: The D1Baseball NerdCast

With seven weeks in the books and seven more to go before most conferences wrap up their regular-season schedules, it’s time for our midseason look at the state of college baseball.

On Tuesday night, our panel of Mark Etheridge, Aaron Fitt and Kendall Rogers met to assemble a midseason field of 64 projection, and recorded the conversation to post as this week’s Nerdcast. This early in the season, the RPI is still very fluid, and many conferences are very early in their league schedules, so trying to build the field is a tricky process filled with subjective evaluations about teams and projections about how we think teams will finish. Which is to say, this field does NOT represent how the field would look if the season ended today; we’re still looking ahead and trying to project how we think the field will look on Memorial Day, based on what we have learned over the first seven weeks of the season.

Not surprisingly, the SEC dominates our top 16 national seeds, landing the top two seeds, three of the top five, and six of the top 13. The SEC is also tied with the ACC for most regional bids overall (nine apiece), followed by the Pac-12 (six bids), Big 12 (five), Big Ten and Conference USA (four apiece).

FIRST THREE OUT:

Iowa, Stetson, Wichita State

LAST THREE IN:

Alabama, South Alabama, UC Irvine

D1Baseball's Midseason Projected Field of 64
NASHVILLECORAL GABLES
1 Vanderbilt* (1)1 Miami (16)
4 Murray State*4 Stony Brook*
3 Ohio State3 Connecticut*
2 Old Dominion2 Florida
FAYETTEVILLELOUISVILLE
1 Arkansas (2)1 Louisville (15)
4 Lehigh*4 Ball State*
3 Nebraska3 Kentucky
2 Oklahoma State2 Indiana State*
FORT WORTHCORVALLIS
1 TCU* (3)1 Oregon State (14)
4 Bryant*4 North Dakota State*
3 San Diego3 Gonzaga*
2 UCLA2 North Carolina
LUBBOCKCOLUMBIA
1 Texas Tech (4)1 South Carolina (13)
4 Fairfield*4 USC Upstate*
3 UC Irvine3 Liberty*
2 Arizona State2 Georgia Tech
OXFORDKNOXVILLE
1 Ole Miss (5)1 Tennessee (12)
4 Jackson State*4 UNC Wilmington*
3 Pittsburgh3 Indiana
2 Southern Miss2 Virginia Tech
GREENVILLERUSTON
1 East Carolina* (6)1 Louisiana Tech* (11)
4 North Carolina Central*4 SE Louisiana*
3 Clemson3 Baylor
2 Charlotte2 Oregon
SOUTH BENDAUSTIN
1 Notre Dame* (7)1 Texas (10)
4 Wright State*4 Fordham*
3 Alabama3 Stanford
2 Michigan*2 Louisiana*
TUCSONSTARKVILLE
1 Arizona* (8)1 Mississippi State (9)
4 Sacramento State*4 Samford*
3 UC Santa Barbara*3 South Alabama
2 San Diego State*2 Florida State
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Ronnie Fulton
7 days ago

Notre Dame top eight seed?

The 16 regionals look reasonable…but, look for a shifting in the order over the next three weeks.

DiamondGator
7 days ago

These seeds have nothing to do with the ‘location’ aspect of hosting, correct? ie some of these top 16 teams may be playing on the road in your scenario?

Jim
Jim
7 days ago

So Ok State is #14 in your poll and just opened the nicest stadium (for now) in the country, but you guys don’t see them as hosting a regional? Too bad we aren’t in the SEC. You’d have us top 8 if we were.

mosteed99
7 days ago
Reply to  Jim

Just gotta beat TCU in a week and show them we deserve it. Didn’t help choking away Tech series or looking helpless against Vandy.

Cody Thrasher
Cody Thrasher
7 days ago
Reply to  mosteed99

Getting 1 of 3 at Tech and at home against Vandy isn’t too awful. And who hasn’t looked helpless against Rocker and Leiter?!?

If D1 Baseball has us as #14, we should be hosting a regional. The two things definitely contradict each other.

That being said, we’ll move up nicely if we sweep or take 2 of 3 against TCU next weekend. There is a LONG way to go.

Samuel Bond
7 days ago
Reply to  Cody Thrasher

They said in the script before the field that this isn’t based on current rankings. This field shows where they project teams to finish. This just means they project OK State to drop a couple series down the stretch

Tutt
7 days ago
Reply to  Cody Thrasher

Don’t worry, there is no way UT or Notre Dame end up hosting. That is at least 2 slots that will open up.

Samuel Bond
7 days ago
Reply to  Tutt

Coming from a Mississippi State fan, Notre Dame is leading the ACC with a manageable schedule ahead of them. I wouldn’t be surprised at all if they host. As far as UT goes, I see 3 Big 12 hosts as a max. TCU, Texas Tech, and then either UT or OK State. Right now, UT is the favored of the two.

Jordan
6 days ago
Reply to  Samuel Bond

I’m ALL for ND’s success this year, but they haven’t won a top 5 ACC series yet (tied UL and avoid Miami).

This week they got GT at home and finish the season vs FSU & VT. We’ll get a better sense of who they are soon.

Dan McDonnell & the cards have won the ACC 5/6 seasons since joining the ACC. If I were a betting man I’d put my money on 6/7.

Thank god they don’t play any midweek ACC games.

David Lundstedt
David Lundstedt
6 days ago
Reply to  Tutt

Texas is hosting, count on it.

Gofrogs05
5 days ago
Reply to  Cody Thrasher

Seems a bit ambitious to think about sweeping a team that’s ranked ahead of you in every measurable way at their home stadium.

Jason
Jason
7 days ago
Reply to  Jim

I know your proud of the new stadium but you obviously haven’t laid eyes on Dudy Nobel Field at Mississippi State.

jcb229
5 days ago
Reply to  Jason

Ooh, I just laid eyes on it. Very cool.

Will
Will
7 days ago
Reply to  Jim

No, if you were in the sec you’d already have 10 losses so you surely wouldn’t be top 8.

Edit: sorry I thought your actual record was much better than it actually is. I didn’t realize they lost to so many sorry teams already. Make that 15 losses if you were in the sec.

Last edited 7 days ago by Will
mosteed99
7 days ago
Reply to  Will

Lmao two dumb SEC comments. Ballpark digest has us as the number one ballpark. Do what you will with that argument. As for how many games we would have already lost in the SEC. We have played Big 12 conference series against two teams D1 had in their preseason top 15 so I would say we are doing just fine with our record. If you wanna judge our midweek games where we let 6+ guys get work to feel the team out then you go right ahead. Other than that we have had pretty good weekends from start to finish.

Dlance06
Dlance06
7 days ago
Reply to  mosteed99

Three of the top teams from the SEC dominated the 3 top teams in the Big 12 on opening weekend. Ole Miss and Arkansas beat UT, Texas Tech, and TCU. MSU dropped one to TCU but they won the other 2 games vs UT and Texas Tech. Vandy, Florida, and maybe TN would have all done the same. Congrats on building the type of ballpark that has existed in the SEC West for over 10 years. (To clarify: Ole Miss, MSU, LSU, and Arkansas) O’Brate stadium has a capacity of 8,000? Congrats again but that’s still less than the AVERAGE attendance for baseball games at each of those 4 schools.

docestes
7 days ago
Reply to  mosteed99

You do realize that Ballpark Digest “ranking” was an online contest for fans voting for their own ballpark? It was by no means any objective measure. But I’m sure the ballpark is beautiful. Which means nothing regarding a teams qualifications for seeding.

mosteed99
7 days ago
Reply to  docestes

I’m not the one saying our seeding depended on ballpark. I also didn’t realize we based nicest stadiums off of capacity. I guess Utah in the PAC-12 has us all beat. TCU and Texas have def picked up play since opening weekend but I’m sure y’all will continue to reference that Globe life series until right before regionals. If you go back to the original comment I made, I am saying we (Ok State) just need to keep our head down and beat TCU next weekend (Obviously D1 would then have us trending upward instead of down and would maybe sour and on TCU a little more). Providing the reasoning for us not being higher than 14 and projected not to host because we had lost series to Vandy and Tech. But to come in here and say we would get smacked around in the SEC when we own one of Vandys 3 loses is just stupid and biased.

docestes
7 days ago
Reply to  mosteed99

I think you replied to the wrong person. My comment specifically was regarding the Ballpark Digest “ranking”. The comments regarding capacity were from another poster. I also said nothing about any expected outcome between OSU and any SEC team

Bryan Tevepaugh
Bryan Tevepaugh
7 days ago

How dumb is this…

Craig
7 days ago

“This early in the season, the RPI is still very fluid, and many conferences are very early in their league schedules, so trying to build the field is a tricky process filled with subjective evaluations about teams and projections about how we think teams will finish. Which is to say, this field does NOT represent how the field would look if the season ended today; we’re still looking ahead and trying to project how we think the field will look on Memorial Day, based on what we have learned over the first seven weeks of the season”.

Buckeyes base no 1
Buckeyes base no 1
7 days ago

Vandy regional again?

Last edited 7 days ago by Buckeyes base no 1
Tutt
7 days ago

Come on down, we can repeat 2019 again since we opened with you guys on the way to the natty.

Sutpens 100
Sutpens 100
7 days ago

NOBODY in the country thinks Vandy won’t be hosting as a national seed, and few who know anything about college baseball would project them as anything but an overall #1 or #2…so, yeah, “Vandy regional again,” and make that a super.

Hotty Toddy!

Grayson Mark
Grayson Mark
7 days ago
Reply to  Sutpens 100

Stupens 100, somehow Buckeyes post went right over your head….

Ronnie Fulton
7 days ago
Reply to  Grayson Mark

Yeah…he’s from that Hotty Toddy school. They never learned to read***

Last edited 7 days ago by Ronnie Fulton
Sutpens 100
Sutpens 100
6 days ago
Reply to  Ronnie Fulton

Quick, great reader, give me the literary derivation of “Sutpens 100.”

Sutpens 100
Sutpens 100
6 days ago
Reply to  Grayson Mark

Or under it. Look I realize there’s another interpretation of Buckeye’s 3-word comment, but there’s no obvious reason to immediately think he’s complaining about OSU over-visiting Nashville. Ohio State has been in 3 regionals in 10+ years – Nashville in 2019, Greenville (ECU) and Louisville. Ought to be happy they’re projected for post-season play, anywhere.

Would be delighted to welcome my new Buckeye friends to Oxford this year.

Ronnie Fulton
7 days ago

Buckeye, I followed Ms State to Columbus, OH for back-to-back regionals about 20 years ago…had a great time and still meet up with some of your fans in Omaha every year.

Hope you enjoy Nashville and have a similar experience…if that’s where Ohio State lands.

Samuel Bond
7 days ago

Gonzaga at Oregon State regional could get interesting

Dempsey999
6 days ago
Reply to  Samuel Bond

I’d love to see the Beavers playing UNC again. Seen them in a few postseasons.

Jeff Mentel
7 days ago

What does the asterisk denote? Winning conference or at large?

docestes
7 days ago
Reply to  Jeff Mentel

I’m pretty sure the asterisk denotes conference automatic qualifier (champion)

Jordan
6 days ago

Florida as a 2 seed seems pretty crazy to me.
signed SEC hater

Jeff
Jeff
5 days ago

What does the asterisks mean?