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Postseason Stock Report: Week 12

Stock Report

SEE ALSO: Field of 64 projection: Week 12
SEE ALSO: 🎙 Nerdcast: Discussing the top 16 seeds
SEE ALSO: 🎙 Nerdcast: Discussing at-large candidates
SEE ALSO: 📝 RPI Nitty Gritty


This time of year, a hefty majority of all questions submitted in our weekly college chat, as well as those sent via e-mail or Twitter, center around the battle for postseason positioning. Our readers want to know how the races for national seeds, host sites and at-large bids are shaping up—so it’s time to roll out our weekly Stock Report feature. Every week, we’ll examine how the postseason picture has shifted over the previous week. This analysis is intended to complement our weekly NCAA tournament field of 64 projection, which was put together in a conference call with Kendall Rogers, Mark Etheridge and me on Tuesday night.

Below, we’ll look at who’s in, who’s out, who’s on the bubble for at-large spots, hosts and national seeds. This discussion is weighted more toward performance to date and remaining schedule than projection based on talent, but it’s also not intended to show exactly what the field would look like if the season ended today. We’re still looking ahead, and we’re still taking talent into consideration when putting together our forecasts.

During this discussion, we will reference the RPI Rankings through Tuesday’s games. And we’ll make use of records against the top 25, 50 or 100 in the RPI using the D1Baseball Nitty Gritty Report (also through Tuesday’s action).

We’ll get to at-large chances in a bit, but let’s start with a look at which teams are on track to earn national seeds and which are on track to host regionals through the first 12 weeks of the season:

National Seeds (top 8)

SECURE TEAMS: Florida, Stanford, North Carolina

ON THE BUBBLE (IN): Georgia, Oregon State, Arkansas, Clemson, Ole Miss

ON THE BUBBLE (OUT): Texas Tech, Florida State, Minnesota, Auburn

Changes from last week: Georgia replaces Texas Tech as a national seed.

Going on the road and sweeping Missouri dramatically changed the outlook for Georgia, which now finds itself sitting pretty at 15-9 in the SEC and No. 4 in the RPI, with a 16-7 record against the top 50 in the RPI, and a 6-5 record against the top 25. That’s a no-brainer national seed resume if the season ended today, but the reason we’ve been more cautious with our projection for Georgia is that it finishes the season with series at Florida and vs. Arkansas, the two most talented teams in the SEC. At this point, however, Georgia has proven that it is good enough to hold its own in those to weekends, and we expect it to win at least two of those final six conference games — and we wouldn’t be shocked if it wins three or four. So if Georgia finishes with 18 or 19 SEC wins and a top-eight RPI, it should be an easy national seed. Even 17 SEC wins could very well be enough to get it done.


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