Postseason Stock Report: Week 12 At-Large & National Seed AnalysisStock Report
This time of year, a hefty majority of all questions we get in our weekly college chat, as well as those from e-mail or Twitter, center around the battle for postseason positioning. Our readers want to know how the races for national seeds, host sites and at-large bids are shaping up, so every week in this space we’ll examine how the postseason picture shifts from week to week, and look ahead at how the upcoming action could affect the races. This analysis complements our weekly NCAA tournament field of 64 projection, which we put together in a conference call with Kendall Rogers, Mark Etheridge and me on Tuesday night.
Below, we look at who’s in, who’s out, who’s on the bubble for at-large spots, hosts and national seeds. We weight this toward performance to date and remaining schedule rather than projection based on talent, but it’s not intended to show exactly what the field would look like if the season ended today. We’re still looking ahead, and we’re still taking talent into consideration.
During this discussion, we will reference the RPI Rankings through Wednesday’s games. And we’ll make use of records against the top 25, 50 or 100 in the RPI using the D1Baseball Nitty Gritty Report (also through Wednesday’s action).
We’ll get to at-large chances in a bit, but let’s start with a look at which teams are on track to earn national seeds and which are on track to host regionals through the first 11 weeks of the season:
Top-Eight National Seeds
SECURE TEAMS: UCLA, Vanderbilt, Arkansas, Mississippi State, Louisville, Georgia Tech, Oregon State
ON THE BUBBLE (IN): Georgia
ON THE BUBBLE (OUT): East Carolina, Stanford
One change from last week: Mississippi State replaces Stanford as a top-eight seed. The Bulldogs made a huge move by sweeping Georgia over the weekend, catapulting MSU eight spots to No. 4 in the RPI. With a 13-8 record in the SEC, an 11-7 mark against the top 25 in the RPI and a 15-9 record against the top 50, the Bulldogs are sitting pretty in the national seed race, and they move up from our No. 11 seed last week to No. 4 this week. …
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