Texas Tech's Caleb Kilian (Kendall Rogers)


Postseason Stock Report: Week 13 At-Large, National Seed Analysis

Stock Report

This time of year, a hefty majority of all questions we get in our weekly college chat, as well as those from e-mail or Twitter, center around the battle for postseason positioning. Our readers want to know how the races for national seeds, host sites and at-large bids are shaping up, so every week in this space we’ll examine how the postseason picture shifts from week to week, and look ahead at how the upcoming action could affect the races. This analysis complements our weekly NCAA tournament field of 64 projection, which we put together in a conference call with Kendall Rogers, Mark Etheridge and me on Tuesday night.

Below, we look at who’s in, who’s out, who’s on the bubble for at-large spots, hosts and national seeds. We weight this toward performance to date and remaining schedule rather than projection based on talent, but it’s not intended to show exactly what the field would look like if the season ended today. We’re still looking ahead, and we’re still taking talent into consideration.

During this discussion, we will reference the RPI Rankings through Wednesday’s games, even though our field was constructed on Tuesday night. And we’ll make use of records against the top 25, 50 or 100 in the RPI using the D1Baseball Nitty Gritty Report (also through Wednesday’s action).

We’ll get to at-large chances in a bit, but let’s start with a look at which teams are on track to earn national seeds and which are on track to host regionals through the first 12 weeks of the season:

Top-Eight National Seeds

SECURE TEAMS: UCLA, Vanderbilt, Arkansas, Mississippi State, Louisville

ON THE BUBBLE (IN): Georgia Tech, Georgia, Texas Tech

ON THE BUBBLE (OUT): East Carolina, Oklahoma State, Stanford, Oregon State

One change from last week: Texas Tech replaces Oregon State as a top-eight seed. The Beavers plummeted to No. 20 in the RPI after an 0-4 week that included a midweek loss to Gonzaga and a home sweep at the hand of Oklahoma State, so they’re clearly out of top-eight position right now, despite their 17-4 Pac-12 record. With two road series left at Oregon and Stanford plus a home series against USC, the Beavers still have opportunities ahead to boost their RPI; but if they can win the Pac-12, they stand a solid chance to snag a top-eight seed even if their RPI stays in the teens. So they’re not out of the running by any stretch, they simply need to rebound. …

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