Adley Rutschman, Oregon State (Mandy Sorenson)

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D1 Analytics: Top 100 Draft Eligible Hitters

Prospects

A supplemental method used by most organizations (some to a much greater extent than others) to identify professional prospects at the college level is through statistical analysis. As scouts continue to build their prospect follow list for the next draft, the analytics department for each front office will send its area scouts a list of analytic follows. In many instances, the name on the analytics list will match those already on a scout’s list. In other instances, the names are the analytic list may be new to a scout, prompting the scout to get out and take a look at the office’s recommendations.

We have approached the analytics process in similar fashion—to identify possible under the radar prospects. Hitting has been broken down into three categories: Plate Discipline, Hit Ability, and Game Power. Plate Discipline (PD) is a measure of how well a batter controls the strike zone. Hit Ability (HA) simply measures a batter’s ability to hit and reach base while Game Power (GP) is straightforward: Does the prospect produce extra base hits, getting to the power he may show in batting practice.

Adjustments have been made to account for park effects of the most extreme hitter and pitcher friendly parks, as well as an adjustment for a team’s strength of schedule. Our analysis is based on 2018 spring season statistics and is for hitting performance only. It does not take into account a prospect’s position. For example, a middle of the diamond player (C, SS, CF) has more value than a corner player (1B, 3B, RF, LF) with a similar score. Nor do the scores consider athleticism, swing mechanics, bat speed, running speed, defense or throwing tools- this list is all about bat skill and identifying hitters who have statistically performed in areas that are proven to correlate into professional baseball. Players are graded from 0-100:  A=90-100, B=80-89, etc.

 

Rank Batter Year Pos School Overall HA PD GP
1 Andrew Vaughn JR 1B California 93.7 92.1 94.1 96.8
2 Michael Busch JR 1B North Carolina 92.6 92.0 92.4 90.9
3 Josh Jung JR 3B Texas Tech 91.7 92.5 89.5 91.5
4 Cameron Warren SR OF Texas Tech 90.2 88.0 89.9 91.2
5 Grant Mathews JR 1B/OF Tulane 90.1 90.0 88.0 90.0

 


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