Asa Lacy was outstanding for Texas A&M. (Kendall Rogers)


D1 Analytics: Top 50 Draft Eligible 2020/2021 Pitchers


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As scouts build their future draft lists, the analytics department for each front office will send it’s area scouts a list of stat-based follows. In many instances, the names on this list will match those already on a scout’s personal follow list. In other instances, names on the stat-based list may be new to a scout, prompting the scout to get out and take a look at the office’s recommendations.

We have approached the analytics process in similar fashion—to identify possible under the radar prospects. We have broken down pitching into three categories: Zone Control, Pitch Ability, and Durability. Zone Control is how well the pitcher controls the strike zone with strikeouts, walks, wild pitches and hit by pitch. Pitch Ability refers to the pitcher’s ability to pitch and uses statistics like WHIP, FIP and OppSLG. Durability is largely based on innings pitched as college starting pitchers have shown greater success in professional baseball than college relievers.

Adjustments have been made to account for park effects of the most extreme hitter and pitcher friendly parks, as well as an adjustment for a team’s strength of schedule. Our analysis is based on statistics only and does not consider how a pitcher fields his position or holds base runners. Nor does it consider a pitcher’s athleticism, arm action, delivery, projection or any other in-person scouted qualities. It is simply a list to identify pitchers who have statistically performed in areas that are proven to correlate into professional baseball. Pitchers are graded from 100-50.

Based on 2019 Statistics
Indicates the pitcher is also a member of the Heat Sheet

RankPitcherSchoolClass Overall ScoreZone ControlPitch AbilityDurability
1Reid DetmersLouisvilleSo94.8693.7995.9693.58
2Mason HickmanVanderbiltSo94.8191.4490.0988.00
3Tanner BurnsAuburnSo93.8388.5093.6192.37
4Max MeyerMinnesotaSo92.4991.3792.4887.81
5Tyler BrownVanderbiltSo91.4093.0793.4073.35
6Asa LacyTexas A&MSo91.3784.8892.2691.38
7Zach PettwayUCLASo90.8385.5684.5193.43
8Christian ChamberlainOregon St.So90.6988.5191.7476.73
9Emerson HancockGeorgiaSo90.5886.7292.3392.68
10Brant HurterGeorgia TechSo90.4287.5586.7389.29
11Logan AllenFIUSo90.2187.0492.2791.32
12JT GinnMississippi St.Fr90.0288.8889.3791.82
13Scott RandallSacramento St.So89.9786.0191.7692.15
14Brett KerrySouth CarolinaFr89.9594.0793.4178.23
15Bryce ElderTexasSo89.5980.2585.9091.45
16Nick DombkowskiHartfordSo89.1391.8887.0388.48
17Trenton DenholmUC IrvineSo88.9685.1192.9488.83
18Garrett CrochetTennesseeSo88.9689.9991.7977.82
19Ryan MillerN.C. CentralFr88.9489.8688.9891.77
20Levi PraterOklahomaSo88.6485.2890.9389.70
21Cole QuintanillaTexasSo88.2688.6889.9575.15
22Michael McGreevyUCSBFr88.1587.9290.0086.54
23Cam TringaliSouth CarolinaFr88.0386.8190.4282.79
24Hayes HeineckeWoffordFr87.9783.0891.1289.71
25Ben AbramOklahomaFr87.9685.6088.0190.25
26John StankiewiczFordhamSo87.9090.0793.4488.88
27Eli MorsePortlandSo87.7883.7685.6193.96
28Jake KuchmanerEast CarolinaSo87.5582.4590.6989.49
29Jordan WicksKansas St.Fr87.4486.8485.2590.24
30Jesse BerginUCLAFr87.4285.0582.9885.56
31Noah SkirrowLibertySo87.4183.9687.7790.49
32Noah CameronCentral Ark.Fr87.3185.7086.6989.54
33Davis SharpeClemsonFr87.2983.0788.8689.94
34Connor SechlerMissouri St.So87.1482.3586.9280.36
35Robert AhlstromOregonSo87.1284.2983.5384.88
36Brendan BeckStanfordSo87.0587.5085.8187.84
37Tommy MaceFloridaSo86.9878.2082.3393.51
38Tanner BibeeCal St. FullertonSo86.7682.5977.2693.18
39Peyton WiggintonMiddle Tenn.So86.6484.5482.0993.30
40Max LovenNorth Dakota St.Fr86.4083.2288.3087.67
41Zach TsakounisWilliam & MaryFr86.1883.4288.7086.42
42Mason MellottPenn St.So86.1281.6390.0786.66
43Harry RutkowskiRutgersSo86.1182.7583.6691.93
44Ian SeymourVirginia TechSo86.0582.8981.2590.16
45Cole KmetNotre DameSo85.8992.6189.2271.87
46Beau KeathleyOaklandSo85.8682.4385.4191.37
47David RhodesWashingtonFr85.8080.2189.9887.22
48Cooper ChandlerPepperdineSo85.7975.6582.7192.17
49Alex PhamSan FranciscoSo85.7585.1686.4485.66
50Jordan MarksUSC UpstateSo85.7383.9182.9490.33


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