Analytical Rankings: Top HittersProspects
New this year at D1Baseball, we jump into the statistics of baseball, providing analytic content, in addition to the scouting and reporting we have always brought you. To begin the season we put together our original analytics list of our Preseason Top 100 Prospects list. Now we’ve updated it to rank our Midseason Top 150 Prospects list.
Criteria for hitters are broken into three categories: Plate Discipline (K%, BB%), Hit Ability (BABIP, OBP, SLG), and Game Power (ISO, HR%). Players’ scores were weighted by their school’s strength of schedule to correct for varying levels of difficulty within Division I. Non Division I players are not included because their data differed significantly from the rest of the players in the Top 100. Data was taken from the 2017 & 2018 NCAA seasons. Here’s a closer look at our grading system:
|Letter Grade||Number Grade||Plate Discipline||Hit Ability||Game Power|
|A||90 +||13% -||15% +||.369 +||.440 +||.540 +||.220 +||4.5% +|
|B||80 - 89||14% - 14.9%||12% - 14.9%||.330 - .368||.400 - .439||.485 - .539||.170 - .219||2.5% - 4.4%|
|C||70 - 79||15% - 17.9%||10% - 11.9%||.300 - .329||.370 - .399||.395 - .484||.110 - .169||0.5% - 2.4%|
|D||60 - 69||18% - 21.9%||8% - 9.9%||.280 - .299||.300 - .370||.365 - .394||.060 - .109||0.5% - 0.0%|
|F||59 -||22% +||7.9% -||.279 -||.299 -||.364 -||.059 -|
As we wrote in our 2017 in Review: Top MLB Draft Stories, college bats who pass the analytics test tend to rise on draft day. Last season, Adam Haseley went from a second-to-third-round type of prospect in the preseason to the eighth overall pick in the draft largely based on his 2017 spring season. His previous college seasons and Cape Cod League performance were solid, yet unspectacular. This year the college hitter making a leap is Jonathan India. He was ranked No. 30 in our Preseason Analytics rankings and has shot all the way to No. 2 in our updated report. India, like Haseley, was considered a second-to-third round prospect when the spring season began, but is now considered a first rounder by many organizations. No. 1 on our list, Bren Spillane, wasn’t even considered by most scouts to be a top 10 round prospect entering this season. Will Spillane make a jump into the 1st round as well? It’s doubtful based on his high strikeout rate, but he’s certainly making a case to be a top round selection. His combination of hit ability and game power are unmatched in college this season.
Without further ado, here’s an analytical ranking of the hitters who appeared in our Midseason Top 150: