Jared Janczak, TCU

Statistical Analysis: The Top Pitchers

Prospects

New this year at D1Baseball, we jump into the statistics of baseball, providing analytic content, in addition to the scouting and reporting we have always brought you. To begin, we’ve put together an analytics-based version of our Preseason Top 100 Prospects list.

Criteria for pitchers were broken into three categories: Zone Control (K%, BB%, HB+WP%), Pitchability (ERA, WHIP, OppAVG, OppSLG), and Durability (GS and IP). Players’ scores were weighted by their school’s strength of schedule to correct for varying levels of difficulty within Division I. Non Division I players are not included because their data differed significantly from the rest of the players in the Top 100. Data was taken from the 2016 & 2017 NCAA seasons and the 2017 Cape Cod League season. The grades for each statistic were weighted and combined into a category grade. These category grades were then weighted again and combined into a final grade. Here’s a closer look at our grading system:

Letter GradeNumber GradeZone Control PitchabilityDurability
K%BB%HBP+WP%ERAWHIPOppAVGOppSLGGSIP
A90 + 27% + 8.9% - 2.9% - 2.99 - .100 - .199 - .229 - 6 +70 +
B80 - 8921% - 26.9%9 - 10.9%3% - 4.9%3.00 - 3.79.101 - .120.200 - .239.230 - .2795 -55 - 69
C70 - 7915% - 20.9%11% - 13.9%5% - 6.9%3.80 - 4.29.121 - .135.240 - .269.280 - .32940 - 54
D60 - 6914.9% - 14% + 7% + 4.30 - 5.29.136 - 1.65.270 - .309.330 - .37930 - 39
F59 -5.30 +.166 +.310 + .380 + 29 -

Interestingly five of the top 10 (50%) are lefthanded, while lefties only comprise 23% (11 of 48) of the list. Steven Gingery from Texas Tech was a model of consistency with all of his grades between 87.55 – 88.57, despite pitching his home games in a hitter friendly ballpark. Surprisingly, Brady Singer, a potential No. 1 overall pick, was farther down the list at No. 14. He received high marks in Zone Control (87.09%) and Durability (94.41%), but slipped due to ordinary WHIP, OPPAvg and OppSLG, rates which affected his Pitchability grade (75.48%).

Not surprisingly, polished strike-throwers like righthanders Jared Janczak (TCU) and Colton Eastman (Cal State Fullerton) made big jumps from their position in our Top 100. Janczak is a prime example of an analytics darling: he was the 37th-ranked pitcher on our Top 100, but he jumps to No. 3 on our statistics-based ranking of the top pitchers.

Without further ado, here’s an analytical ranking of the 48 Division I pitchers who appeared in our preseason Top 100:


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