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D1Baseball Field of 64 Projections: May 29, Final Edition

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The 16 regional hosts were announced Sunday night, with South Carolina landing a home regional over Campbell, prompting that one host change in our final field of 64 projection. Now that we know the hosts, our jobs were a little easier; we simply had to line up the top 16 in order, then determine which teams get in off the bubble, and where they should go.

Sunday’s action saw two teams win automatic bids that weren’t projected as at-large teams: Charlotte beat Dallas Baptist in C-USA, bumping DBU to an at-large and making C-USA a two-bid league; and Tulane upset East Carolina in the American, making the Pirates an at-large and the American a two-bid league. That meant there were two fewer at-large bids available to bubble teams, so two teams we projected in this morning had to drop out.

After considerable debate on our final NerdCast of the year (which we streamed live), we wound up removing Arizona (No. 62 on our at-large ladder this morning) and Louisiana (which was No. 64 this morning). This morning’s team No. 63, Oklahoma, remains in the field based on our expectation that the committee will lean heavily on the RPI, as evidenced by South Carolina and Indiana State earning host spots thanks in large measure to top-10 RPIs. Our personal pecking order had the Sooners behind both Louisiana and Kansas State, but this exercise is an attempt to predict what the committee will do, not what we think it should do. So Oklahoma gets the nod, and NC State gets in as well thanks to a No. 23 RPI. You can see our final at-large ladder below.

The SEC has the most projected bids with 10. The ACC is next with eight, followed by the Big 12 with six and the Pac-12 with five teams making the field. The Sun Belt and Big Ten are projected for three bids apiece. The American Athletic, Colonial, C-USA and Big West get two bids apiece.

Mark Etheridge, Kendall Rogers and Aaron Fitt assembled the postseason projections.


AT-LARGE LADDER:

Last four in, first four out, from strongest to weakest:

61. Southern California
62. UC Irvine
63. NC State
64. Oklahoma
—–CUTOFF—–
65. Louisiana
66. Arizona
67. Kansas State
68. Notre Dame


2023 Field of 64 Projections: Final Edition
WINSTON-SALEMTERRE HAUTE
1 Wake Forest (1)1 Indiana State* (16)
4 Maine*4 Ball State*
2 Oregon State2 Tennessee
3 Charlotte*3 Indiana
GAINESVILLECOLUMBIA
1 Florida (2)1 South Carolina (15)
4 Florida A&M*4 Pennsylvania*
2 Oregon*2 Campbell*
3 Northeastern3 NC State
FAYETTEVILLEAUBURN
1 Arkansas (3)1 Auburn (14)
4 Eastern Illinois*4 San Jose State*
2 Dallas Baptist2 Duke
3 Oklahoma3 Troy
CLEMSONLEXINGTON
1 Clemson* (4)1 Kentucky (13)
4 Central Connecticut*4 Wright State*
2 East Carolina2 Boston College
3 Texas Tech3 Xavier*
NASHVILLESTILLWATER
1 Vanderbilt* (5)1 Oklahoma State* (12)
4 Lipscomb*4 Oral Roberts*
2 Connecticut2 Texas A&M
3 UC Irvine3 Washington
BATON ROUGETUSCALOOSA
1 LSU (6)1 Alabama (11)
4 Tulane*4 Nicholls*
2 Maryland*2 Southern Miss*
3 Sam Houston*3 Samford*
STANFORDCONWAY
1 Stanford (7)1 Coastal Carolina (10)
4 Santa Clara*4 Rider*
2 TCU*2 North Carolina
3 Cal State Fullerton*3 UNC Wilmington*
CHARLOTTESVILLECORAL GABLES
1 Virginia (8)1 Miami (9)
4 George Mason*4 Army*
2 West Virginia2 Texas
3 Iowa3 Southern California
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