D1Baseball’s Weekly Chat: March 7

I’m sticking with UNC Wilmington, but I think it’s clear that CofC is a legitimate contender too. The Cougars look stronger on the mound, and Wilmington looks more offensive… but I think the personnel is there for UNCW to pitch a lot better too. Just hasn’t come together yet.

I do think the Oregon schools are the class of the Pac-12 this year. UCLA showed me something this weekend for sure — that’s a very well coached team with a nice core of talented upperclassmen in the lineup and quality pitching… but I still think UCLA has more holes than the Oregon schools. Certainly Cal will be right in the mix too — still think the Golden Bears have a chance to win the league too. But boy, Oregon’s pitching is special, and Oregon State is just very strong all the way around.

I think it’s probably the latter. It’s unfair to expect the guy to be perfect every week — he set an impossibly high standard for himself last year. I haven’t heard any cause for alarm with him.

I’d love it if we could require catchers to call their own games instead of staring into the dugout between every pitch… but I don’t think that’s gonna happen.

Fascinating series, for sure. I know Georgia Tech hasn’t played the strongest competition early on, but the Jackets have really dominated — they are playing at a high level. This is an older team with plenty of talent, and so far it is playing up to its capability. Florida State has been less consistent, so on paper, you’d have to give Georgia Tech the edge. Of course, FSU has a way of playing very well in big series at home… never an easy place to go win.

No concerns for me. Very encouraging to see Funkhouser get back on track with a dominating performance Friday — that was probably the one thing we were waiting to see.

Yes, Augie will last the season at Texas. There’s no doubt that Texas is a major concern right now. This team doesn’t seem to know how to win. With that said, the Longhorns have a stout rotation and should be OK offensively once Patrick Mathis is back and healthy. Major concerns about the Horns? Yes. Ready to throw in the towel? Not quite yet.

Eric,
He’s fine. I actually ran into Cincinnati head coach Ty Neal in the Charlotte airport the other day who just praised Lange and his overall stuff. Lange will be fine.

Thanks for subscribing, Brad! You guys make this site possible. Yeah, I’ll admit I’m a little flummoxed by Coastal early on. I love the offense, but you’re right, that team has not defended the way we expected it to, and the pitching has underachieved as well. I don’t think they have elite talent on the mound, but they should be better than they’ve shown so far. I really thought Alex Cunningham would work in the rotation, but now he’s back in the bullpen, and they’re just searching for answers in the rotation. I still think they’ll get it sorted out and be the team to beat in the Big South… but there are some legitimate concerns there.

I’d take Oklahoma State in that series — just a lot more high-end pitching for the Cowboys. I’m a little surprised OSU hasn’t hit more yet, but they will — plenty of quality veterans on that lineup with talent. I love FAU’s lineup — it’s really legit. I’m just not sold on the pitching yet. That said, we would have ranked FAU if they had played better competition the last two weeks; right now their case is based on two wins against Mississippi State. That’s not quite enough for a team that lost as much as FAU lost from last year. There’s still stuff to prove.

Kirk,
FAU is definitely on our radar, and I know we both looked at those guys hard over the weekend. However, I wasn’t that impressed with the fact Georgetown lit them up in the series opener. Impressive so far this season? yes. Worthy of moving in after the past week? I think that’s debatable. I had Clemson, Alabama, FAU in my personal order of last team in, first two out.

Not too far out, actually — we almost listed them in our “others considered” this week. So they’d be in the 30-32 range or so right now. Very impressed with ODU’s start to the season, interested to see if they can sustain it in conference play.

That still feels a little rich to me. Florida, Vandy and Texas A&M are just in a different class than the rest of the league, I think. But in the early going, Ole Miss looks like a strong contender to host a regional, at least.

John,
Latz has a terrific arm, so his addition, healthy that is, would be huge for LSU. With that said, I’m in “I’ll believe it when I see it” mode with Latz. I hope he’s on the mound as much as the next person, but I’ve heard that a couple of times before.

Ethan,
I know there’s not a pitcher in America I’d rather have as my Friday night guy than Shore right now. He’s been so consistent throughout his collegiate career, and is having another stellar campaign.

I noticed that this weekend — he’s always been a feast or famine guy, so when I heard about his home run streak, I figured he must be cutting down on his strikeouts some and making better contact. But the strikeout rate remains high, yet he’s also hitting for average (albeit in a small sample size). Frankly, I don’t know if that kind of production is sustainable. The guy has big-time raw power, there’s no doubt about that, but you can’t be all-or-nothing against ACC pitching and have a productive season, I think.

They remain just on the edge of the rankings — problem is, there’s been another team or two that has been just a bit more impressive each of the last two weeks, so the Tide got skipped over. But Alabama has been Team 26 in each of the last two weeks, so if they keep winning, they’ll be ranked soon enough.

Big-time power… but still too much swing-and-miss to be a high-end first-rounder, for me. He’s pretty darn good off the mound too, but that power tool is just too valuable, he’ll be drafted as a hitter. Feels more like a 2-3 rounder to me.

Reb,
very impressed with Ole Miss so far this season. Chad Smith and Sean Johnson have been good enough, and Bramlett is going to be Bramlett. I also think Wyatt Short is better than people give him credit for. Ole Miss is going to hit, and its season hinges on the starting rotation. So far, it’s been more than adequate. If that keeps up, watch out.

USC is a good, veteran club… but TCU has played at a higher level so far this year. Feels like USC is still trying to find itself, whereas TCU already has. I’d have to bet on the Frogs at home.

Bill,
Great question. I think Andrew See has done a terrific job with that pitching staff. There’s not a “premier” arm on that staff, yet, they performed at a high level over the weekend against a good-hitting South Carolina club. Alex Eubanks and Charlie Barnes were both impressive, and Alex Schnell, Bostic and Pat Krall are all solid options out of the pen. I think Clemson’s offense is as good as anyone’s out there … and watch out for Seth Beer. LOVED his hit tool.

Bill,
I think Monte has a real calmness about him. He’s hard-nosed, but he’s not too high or too low — that’s a very good quality to have in a head coach. See’s resume speaks for itself as well.

You know, if you see Long Beach for one game (like I did on Tuesday night), you walk away thinking, “Meh.” But they just grind, and find ways to win, and their weekend pitching is a lot better than the midweek pitching I saw Tuesday. They did a really nice job against a pretty talented Nebraska offense the last two days of that series this weekend, allowing just one total run. I still think the Long Beach lineup is light, but they’re well coached and fundamentally sound, they won’t beat themselves often, and Garrett Hampson is a star. Feels like a regional team, but I wouldn’t pick them to win a regional.

It did feel like a turning point — I think something clicked with the Bruins this week, as Savage said the other night. I think they’re going to be a solid regional team; heading into this weekend, I wasn’t so sure. Valaika should be back in about 2 weeks, it sounds like. Dyer could be back next week, but I’m not sure what his official timetable is.

Eric,
I don’t think Florida’s time is running out at all. Just look at the way the Gators are recruiting. With that said, yes, I do think this is the year. Such impressive premium pitching depth and all the pieces are there to get it done.

Trace,
That’s a great thing to bring up. Yes, I would imagine his stock is going up. He’s already been an elite defender and he’s now showing a hit tool. If he continues to hit at that level, he will rise dramatically, IMO. I’ll touch base with scouts about him soon.

I’d love to get back to Lupton this year — fantastic atmosphere for that regional last June, and a great setting. TCU looks pretty legit too — definitely gives us reason to travel to Fort Worth. I’m not quite ready to give up on Oklahoma State (I do remember how vocal I was in the preseason about the Cowboys being the no-doubt team to beat in that league…), but you’re right, TCU has just been better so far. And without Traver too. Very impressive.

50-50 Feels about right to me. I like that they held their own against that schedule (I still think Fullerton and Texas will wind up being better than their current records show). For Stanford, the strength of schedule will be fine; it all comes down to holding their own in the Pac-12. And they strike me as somewhere in that 5-8 range in the Pac pecking order.

When I’m at a game, I’m usually spending most of my time behind the plate and down the sides, rather than in the press box, so unfortunately I don’t get to stream as many games as I’d like to…

Juice,
I don’t think ULL will have quite the offense that it has had in the past, and that’s just natural. But I think it will be adequate enough to win 40-plus games, especially in that conference. The pitching continues to impress, and I was told LHP Hogan Harris was up to 95 over the weekend. They’ve got a nice stable of arms, and that will be the difference as the season progresses.

I’ll tell you what, I was worried about Southern Miss after those guys got swept in those two midweek games against South Alabama, because five-game weeks are tough on the pitching staff, and I wouldn’t have pegged pitching depth as one of USM’s strengths. And then the Golden Eagles go out and allow just three runs total against three good opponents (Michigan State, Troy and Auburn). Very nice bounceback weekend there, showed me a lot. Cockrell and Winston were really huge for Southern Miss this weekend, pitching deep into those games. If the Eagles can pitch like that, that certainly looks like a regional team, because I do like the offense too.

Damon,
I think they do, and you saw that in our ranking of them in the preseason. The ole Miss series loss was certainly a set back, but we’re finding out that the Rebels are pretty solid as well.

That is a fair observation, no doubt. And yes, you’d have to allow that there is some risk that he won’t ever quite find his rhythm and get back to dominating this year — he’s a risk/reward guy. That said, I believe in Kevin O’Sullivan’s ability to get him going. And heck, if he doesn’t, Florida can stick somebody else in the rotation and still have elite talent in the rotation (as a fallback option if this remains a problem late in the season). But I think you have to roll with him right now and wait for the light to come on — the upside is too great.

Jimbo,
Fitt and I kind of touched on this earlier today, but Oklahoma simply doesn’t have the offensive talent to keep up with some of the better teams in the nation and league right now. The pitching is there, but the offense is lagging behind. We’ll see if that changes soon.

Fresno State would be in that discussion. Jimmy Lambert and Ricky Thomas have really been special so far. I’m looking forward to seeing those guys Friday at A&M.

I think it comes down to Hiura and KJ Harrison at Oregon State… and Hiura has certainly been better so far this year. It’s only 3 weeks, but man, is he locked in.

I always use the phrase “sliding scale” to describe it. In the preseason, it’s 100 percent based on potential (since there are no games to evaluate). By the end of the season, it’s 100 percent based on on-field accomplishments. As the season progresses, it gradually tilts from potential to results as we learn more about the teams based on their resumes. So this early in the season, our evaluations of a team’s talent and potential do still weigh heavily into the calculus (which is why a team like Oklahoma State is still hanging around in the Top 25).

Drew,
Very impressed with so far. This past weekend was huge for program perception, and looking at the rest of the OOC slate and early conference slate, I think the Golden Eagles will have a pretty good shot of reaching the postseason. Lot of season left, but in a year where it’s needed most, Scott Berry has this team playing extremely well.

I don’t know that I see any 40-45 win teams there (you don’t see a lot of those out West anyway), but I do like Seattle and Sac State both — those teams are both good enough to give anybody a scare on the weekend, as the Hornets did down at LSU. And yes, Skubak is the real deal — an elite talent who has pitched like it so far. Still no runs allowed in 18 innings, with a 27-6 strikeout-walk mark! I’m all-in.

Don’t forget about Old Dominion! And heck, Louisiana Tech and Western Kentucky are much improved too, and UTSA is off to a solid start against a decent schedule (that early series win against UConn looks nice). It does feel like a pretty strong year for Conference USA, notwithstanding Rice’s early mediocrity. Feels like it could be a three-bid league, yes.

JJ,
Tulane had a few bad games, but this is still a solid club that is going to hit. They flat out dominated Pepperdine over the weekend with offense and pitching. I still maintain the Green Wave is a top-25 caliber type of club, regardless of some early-season results.

Don’t see that happening. Way too far West, attendance would be abysmal. Makes no sense.

Tyler,
I would say Missouri and Tennessee, in that order. The Tigers are going to be a tough as nails on the weekend with that rotation of theirs, while Tennessee is vastly improved. Georgia and Auburn still have some very iffy qualities.

FBF,
Great question. The league definitely appears to be better than we expected. I think CSF, Long Beach State and UCSB are very safe bets at this way-too-early stage, and as you mentioned, CP is playing better as well, along with CSN. This is going to be such a fun race, because I don’t see a clear-cut top team.

Dillon,
I would have to say DBU, our preseason favorite. The Patriots had some real question marks going into the season, but they left no doubt over the weekend. Do want to see more consistency moving forward though, as the Pats did drop a series to ORU a couple of weekend ago.

I’d go 1) TCU 2) Oklahoma State 3) Texas Tech, 4) Texas 5) West Virginia 6) Baylor.

League appears to be vastly improved, sans Rice, who is not as good as years past. I think FAU is a very safe bet right now, and I think Rice will figure out enough to make the postseason. Then there’s ODU and USM, which already have some solid wins so far this season. I think the league will end up with three by late May.

Forearm strain, and will be out a couple of weeks.

Bob,
I had someone describe to me OSU’s offense as “SEC-like” in nature, and if you combine that with the fact the Beavers always seem to have a quality pitching staff, that’s a pretty good sign of things to come for Pat Casey’s club. There’s a reason we were so bullish on these guys in January.

No reason why the Big Ten can’t compete on the national level. As for the class of the league, very tough call right now, bud I’d probably lean Michigan.

Tim,
It will be important for Clarke to be ultra consistent, but honestly, that guy seems to have a calm personality about him, so I am not remotely in his ability to be that. I think Braden Webb will be a stud as he matures and gets a few more innings under his belt, while I bet you see Adam Hill move into the weekend rotation next weekend. There’s some real pitching depth with this club, and the offense doesn’t concern me. That unit will hit.

Jeff,
the bullpen is definitely a concern, and while I don’t see the Cavaliers being as good at the end of this season as they were at the end of last season, the fact there’s precedent for such a turnaround, you have to give Brian and his staff the benefit of the doubt.