College 100: Preseason Prospect Chat

I think I see it from Kilkenny a bit more than Kolek right now. We actually discussed Kilkenny in our meeting last week, and he’s got a durable frame with a big-time arm (was 92-95 several times I saw him last year), but the secondary stuff still leaves something to be desired. For now, for me, he’s a big arm who has something to prove. I like Kolek’s fastball/slider combo, but I’ll be honest, there’s not m much about him at the moment that just screams wow to me, as opposed to Kilkenny’s fastball, which has some serious life to it at times.

Bergner is really intriguing — one of those guys who could easily jump into the top half of the first round if he performs well as a draft-eligible sophomore this spring. He was really good in the Cape, where he showed dramatically improved command in addition to electric stuff. The arm strength isn’t in question — he’ll sit 94-96 and touch the high 90s regularly. It’s just a matter of pitchability and consistency in a starting role in the ACC. I know some scouts aren’t in love with the delivery, which makes them skeptical on the pitchability… but if he performs, I think the doubters will be satisfied.

Fun question here, because there’s no obvious answer. Usually you’d look for a college infielder as a potential 1-1 candidate (think Swanson or Bregman), and Madrigal is the consensus top college infielder on the board… but it would be pretty bold to take a player of his physical stature with the No. 1 overall pick. I think he’s the best pure hitter in this draft, and a great all-around baseball player — you could dream on him being another Jose Altuve, based on the hit tool and speed. So maybe he’ll be the guy, but it’s definitely an unusual 1-1 profile. Maybe Jeremy Eierman will convince scouts that he can stick at shortstop — there are plenty of scouts who think he can. If the Tigers see him that way, maybe they’d entertain him with the top pick, because I don’t think anybody doubts the power or the infield actions. I think he’d be a very good defender at second or third if he doesn’t stick at shortstop, and the bat should play.

I know David Seifert is a big fan of Jon Heasley, who made our top 100 list as an eligible sophomore. Josh Holliday told me this fall that Heasley has taken a big, big jump since last year, and his raw stuff is pretty darn good. And I think Carson Teel is a pretty darn interesting sleeper prospect who did not make our top 100 list, but could easily jump up into those top 3-5 rounds with a good spring. You’ll see some 93s and 94s from Teel at times, and the breaking ball continues to get better too. A lefthander with pitchability and arm strength who is really coming into his own — keep an eye on him.

Dodson’s athleticism sets him apart from most. He has low/mid 90s velocity on the mound, and a natural feel for the barrel in the batter’s box. He’s a legit two-way prospect. With that said, I see him going out as a hitter, then converting to the mound, if needed, in pro ball.

Both guys will be high-level prospects for 2019, but I think the key for both to become first-rounders is their development on defense. Both guys can hit — that’s obvious. Quintana is working to become a more selective hitter, and his power is legit. Shewmake is one of the best pure hitters in the country, and there’s more power to come as he fills out that lanky frame. But both guys had a lot of work to do as defenders as freshmen. They’re both working hard on that part of their game, and I think there’s reason to believe they’ll progress enough by the time they’re juniors to push for first-round status.

Sam — That is good question. It sounds like he’s healthy and ready to go. We actually discussed putting Clay in our Top 100 during our meeting last week because his defensive skill set is that good. But let’s see how he does offensively as well in the spring. He’s one of those guys, with a healthy and solid start to the spring, could absolutely rise up the charts, IMO.

Pretty thin crop of hitters in CA this spring, at least at this point. Starting in the Bay Area, Nico Hoerner at Stanford is the top one for me. Polished SS who controls the strike zone and makes all the routine plays on defense. After Hoerner, Tanner Dodson from CAL is very intriguing. Hitter and outfielder first, but also has the arm strength and athleticism to pitch. Depending on his year, he looks like a 2nd to 3rd round type of pick. I also had a chance in Cape Cod this past summer to see Alex McKenna from Cal Poly. Good athlete with body strength. His tools don’t WOW you, but he can play the game. Niko Decolati is a physical UTL type with power, he should easily go in the top 5 rounds. Clay Fisher-UC Santa Barbara, Nick Meyer-San Diego and Lars Nootbar-USC could also be selected in the top 10 rounds.

Higgins was the closest — it’s easy to dream on that guy as a big physical lefty with mid-90s arm strength. He just needs to perform; if he can make strides with his pitchability and consistency, he could rocket up draft lists. I really like Canning too, good player who can obviously really run and has feel for his barrel. He and Godfrey probably fit in that 5-10 round range right now, with a chance to play their way up into the top five rounds with strong springs.

He was a real wild card even before the surgery. He has obvious prospect pedigree, and he has shown big velocity in the past, but his velo had dropped off as he learned to improve his command, and scouts hadn’t been overwhelmed by the stuff in 2017. Still, he’s a lefthander with a huge body and plenty of arm strength, sot he upside is obvious. I expect him to return to UCLA next year to try to really boost his draft stock, rather than take a discount as an injured player in the 2018 draft.

I ran into the Kentucky coaches last week in Indy and they reiterated how good Hjelle’s stuff was this fall. If he carries that over into the spring, I fully expect him to be a first-rounder, maybe even a top 10 pick. We were just a bit conservative with our ranking of him, and I would not be at all surprised if he outperforms this ranking.

Tough question to answer regarding Heimlich. I will say that our rankings are based on baseball talent, and that’s where he fits. As far as where he’s drafted, that’s up to each individual club in consultation with ownership.

Kevin,
We discussed it on a video just now, but I would keep an eye on Texas RHP Chase Shugart. Shugart has a huge arm and a mean streak, but until now, hadn’t really commanded his stuff very well. He made significant strides this fall and the Texas coaches feel like he’s ready to become “that” guy. If he commands and shows strides with his secondary stuff, we already know he can throw hard. I’d keep an eye on him.

We each picked some back-half picks to click in a video we recorded this afternoon that will be posted shortly. But I’m going to pick out one of the guys I mentioned in that video: Jason Bilous of Coastal Carolina. Huge arm, delivery works easy, great body. He was pumping high-90s heat with improved command this spring. He still has a lot to prove, because his performance has been inconsistent over his first two years, but if he puts it together as a junior, it’s easy to envision him working his way into the top half of the first round.

With another good year and improved secondary, yes he should slide into the 3rd round. I like his arm, shows good run on the fastball at times. His breaking ball can get long. Will need to shorten it up. I plan to see him early in the season, and will have a better answer for you then.

I think he is capable of playing shortstop, but he profiles better at second, and I think his arm fits a little better there. But again, if you think he’s the second coming of Altuve or Pedroia — both MVPs — then it doesn’t matter if you don’t think he’s a shortstop.

Looks like a slow year for prospects in the A-10. St Louis will have the best of the bunch in RHP Jackson Wark. Low 90s guy with a good slider, just struggles with his command at times. Looked good in the Coastal Plains league this summer. Miller Hogan, another RHP at SLU should go fairly well as a SR sign. Same with James Morisano, C for the Billikens. VCU has SR RHP Sean Thompson who has put together a nice career. Rhode Island has Tyler Wilson and Saint Joseph has Tim Brennan who could go around the 10th round at this point.

Nick — A lot will depend on what kind of start Hogan Harris gets off to. With Gunner Leger on the shelf, the Top 100 prospect, Harris, will need to step up. He did not pitch during fall workouts as the Cajuns wanted to preserve his arm for the 2018 campaign. Harris showed more consistency velocity this past summer and clearly has some nasty breaking stuff. He’s such a huge key for the Cajuns.

With another good year and improved secondary, yes he should slide into the 3rd round. I like his arm, shows good run on the fastball at times. His breaking ball can get long. Will need to shorten it up. I plan to see him early in the season, and will have a better answer for you then.

Really like that sophomore class for the Wolfpack. I’m a huge fan of Will Wilson — guy can really hit, and he’s a very good athlete who can defend ably all around the infield. Eager to see how he handles the everyday shortstop job this year; if he thrives there, I could see him jumping up into first or second round consideration next year, almost like a Logan Warmoth type. I see some similarities there. Brad Debo’s bat certainly makes him a prospect of interest, especially if he continues to progress behind the plate — right now, he needs to prove to scouts that he can stick at that position. If he does, he can be a premium pick in 2019. Dalton Feeney could also be a high pick if he returns strong from Tommy John surgery next year, and Michael Bienlien seems like a potential 5-10 rounds type pick as well. Good group.

Brendon — I would say they are right now. Obviously, Oregon State has a solid one two punch with Heimlich and Fehmel, but it’s not Bubic and Beck. Bubic showed more consistency velocity in the fall, and that’s a big key. I was told last week Beck was 92-95 late in the fall with very crisp stuff. Stanford will be able to match up with anyone on Friday and Saturday, and as you mentioned, Miller has a ton of upside, too.

West Coast —

MacIver is definitely getting some very intriguing buzz right now. As for Larnarch, he’s a really interesting guy for me. Though he put together a solid 2017 campaign, there’s no doubt we all felt, and scouts, too, that there was more in the tank, specifically from a power standpoint. He’s got a good build and a solid tool set. I think he’s going to have a very solid spring and probably move up a bit in our rankings before it’s all said and done.

Tough to find a sleeper in such a good and highly scouted conference, but the guy for me is DaShawn Keirsey, Jr., L/L CF from Utah. He can hit, run and has some power. He didn’t play this summer after running into the outfield wall and breaking his hip in the Utes last regular season game last spring. It kept him out of the Cape Cod League, and the exposure that comes with it. If he bounces back healthy from a major injury, he could have a big year.

I had a chance to see Nick last summer for Team USA College National Team. His catch/throw abilities belong in the top 3 rounds, however his bat is a work in progress. Catcher’s do tend to rise on draft day, and it will take a good year offensively for Meyer to rise to that level.