Stock Report: Week 13

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This time of year, a hefty majority of all questions submitted in our weekly college chat, as well as those sent via e-mail or Twitter, center around the battle for postseason positioning. Our readers want to know how the races for national seeds, host sites and at-large bids are shaping up — so it’s time for our weekly Stock Report feature. Every Wednesday, we’ll examine how the postseason picture has shifted over the previous week. This analysis is intended to complement our weekly NCAA tournament field of 64 projection, which was put together in a conference call with Kendall Rogers, Mark Etheridge and me on Tuesday night.

Below, we’ll look at who’s in, who’s out, who’s on the bubble for at-large spots, hosts and national seeds. This discussion is weighted much more toward performance to date and remaining schedule than projection based on talent, but it’s also not intended to show exactly what the field would look like if the season ended today. We’re still looking ahead to Selection Monday.

During this discussion, we will reference the RPI rankings through Tuesday’s games. And we’ll make use of records against the top 25, 50 or 100 in the RPI using the D1Baseball Nitty Gritty Report (also through Tuesday’s action). We’ll also reference the Boyd’s World RPI Needs Report, which provides rough estimates for how many games a given team must win down the stretch to finish the regular season within certain key RPI benchmarks.

We’ll get to at-large chances in a bit, but let’s start with a look at which teams are on track to earn national seeds and which are on track to host regionals through the first 13 weeks of the season:

National Seeds

SECURE TEAMS: Florida, Miami, Texas A&M, Louisville, Mississippi State, Texas Tech

ON THE BUBBLE (IN): Virginia, South Carolina

ON THE BUBBLE (OUT): Ole Miss, LSU, Florida State, NC State

One change from last week: Virginia replaces Florida State as a national seed.

University of Virginia logoThe red-hot Cavaliers have won four straight series, highlighted by a road series at Miami and home series wins against North Carolina and Georgia Tech. The Cavs are now 16-11 in conference with a sweepable series left against Virginia Tech, so we expect them to reach 18 or 19 ACC wins. That last series won’t help them in the RPI, where they currently rank 13th — two spots ahead of Florida State. The Cavs currently have more top 50 games FloridaState(14-14) than the Seminoles (11-11), and they’ve got more positive momentum than FSU, which has lost back-to-back ACC series, including at Duke this weekend. But Florida State maintains a narrow edge in the conference standings at 15-8, and the Seminoles control their own destiny: if they can win their final series at home against Miami, they’ll get boosts in the RPI and the standings, and they’ll likely climb back ahead of Virginia into national seed position. But right now, we’re leaning toward the Cavs.


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